Nomogram for predicting coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery lesions are the most important complications of Kawasaki disease. Approximately 25-30% of untreated patients develop coronary artery disease, which can lead to long-term cardiovascular sequelae. AIM: The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk factors for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease and to construct a nomogram for predicting the likelihood of developing such lesions. METHODS: Data from 599 patients between January 2012 and June 2020 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 450) and the validation set (n = 149). A comparison of clinical features and laboratory data was performed, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors and develop the nomogram. The predictive efficiency of the nomogram was evaluated using the calibration curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance, delayed IVIG treatment, C-reactive protein, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio were identified as independent risk factors for the development of coronary artery lesions. The nomogram was constructed based on these four variables. The calibration curve of the nomogram showed a high degree of agreement between the predicted probability and the actual probability. The AUC of the nomogram in the training and validation set was 0.790 and 0.711, respectively. In addition, DCA revealed that the nomogram provided a significant net benefit, further supporting its clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS: The constructed nomogram demonstrates a strong and reliable performance in predicting coronary artery lesions, which enables clinicians to make timely and tailored clinical decisions.

Altered gut microbiota correlated with systemic inflammation in children with Kawasaki disease.

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a multi-systemic vasculitis of unknown etiology that occurs mainly in children, and the disturbance of gut microbiota is generally believed to cause a hyperimmune reaction triggering KD. The aim of the study was to investigate the alterations in the fecal microbiota and assess its relationship with systemic inflammation. Totally 30 KD children were enrolled and followed up for 6 months, with another group of 30 age- and sex-matched healthy children as controls. Phylotype profiles of fecal microbial communities were analyzed using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Serum inflammatory markers were detected by flow cytometer. We showed that KD children exhibited a significant reduction in fecal microbial diversity in the acute phase compared with the healthy controls. Enterococcus, Acinetobacter, Helicobacter, Lactococcus, Staphylococcus and Butyricimonas in acute KD children were significantly higher than the healthy children. Levels of systemic inflammation biomarkers, including IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-α, and INF-γ, were significantly elevated in the acute KD children. Altered microbiota genera Enterococcus and Helicobacter abundances were shown to be correlated positively with IL-6, which were never previously reported in KD. This study suggested that gut microbiota alteration is closely associated with systemic inflammation, which provides a new perspective on the etiology and pathogenesis of KD.

[Predictive value of immature granulocytes for persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome in patients with acute pancreatitis: analysis of 1 973 cases].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the clinical value of immature granulocytes in peripheral blood for prediction of persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: 1 973 patients with AP in Hunan People's Hospital from 2012 to 2017 were retrospectively enrolled and divided by SIRS duration into the persistent SIRS group, temporary SIRS group and non-SIRS group. The independent risk factor for persistent SIRS in AP patients was evaluated by Logistic regression analysis, and predictive value of immature granulocytes for persistent SIRS in AP patients was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: These 1 973 AP patients (1 165 males, 59.0%) with an average age of 49 (40, 60) years old, including 288 persistent SIRS, 189 temporary SIRS and 1 496 non-SIRS cases. There was no significant difference in gender, age and etiology among three groups. Compared with non-SIRS group, more severe symptoms were observed in the temporary and persistent SIRS groups. Moreover, The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), CT severity index (CTSI), multiple organ failure (MOF) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) incidence, mortality and C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell count (WBC), procalcitonin (PCT) and immature granulocytes in persistent SIRS group were further higher than those in the temporary SIRS group [APACHE II: 9 (6, 12) vs. 5 (3, 7), CTSI: 6 (4, 6) vs. 4 (3, 6), MOF incidence: 92.0% vs. 32.8%, ARDS incidence: 39.9% vs. 10.1%, morbidity: 11.1% vs. 4.2%, CRP (mg/L): 25.00 (0.80, 212.25) vs. 0.80 (0.80, 123.50), WBC (×109/L): 15.17±6.78 vs. 14.84±5.86, PCT (g/L): 0.23 (0.10, 1.76) vs. 0.10 (0.10, 0.31), immature granulocytes: 1.95 (0.90, 4.95) % vs. 0.80 (0.40, 2.10) %, all P < 0.05]. Logistic regression analysis showed that besides pancreatic necrosis, WBC and CRP, immature granulocyte was an independent risk factor for persistent SIRS associated with AP [odds ratio (OR) = 1.844, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.372-2.220]. ROC curve showed that immature granulocytes had better predictive value for persistent SIRS, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.806, which was significantly higher than the APACHE II (AUC = 0.783), CTSI (AUC = 0.752), PCT (AUC = 0.676), CRP (AUC = 0.677), WBC (AUC = 0.644). The cut-off value of immature granulocyte was 0.65%, the sensitivity was 84.0%, the specificity was 66.3%, the positive predictive value was 62.4%, and the negative predictive value was 76.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Immature granulocyte in peripheral blood is a potential indicator for persistent SIRS in AP patients.