Association of Ang-2, vWF, and EVLWI with risk of mortality in sepsis patients with concomitant ARDS: A retrospective study.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: This study aimed to determine the potential effects of angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2), von Willebrand factor (vWF), and extravascular lung water index (EVLWI) on the risk of mortality in sepsis patients with concomitant acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). METHODS: This retrospective study recruited 41 sepsis patients with concomitant ARDS from January 2015 to June 2018. Data of Ang-2 and vWF levels, EVLWI, and sequential organ failure assessment scores were collected at 0, 24, and 48 h after admission to the hospital. RESULTS: The length of intensive care unit stay (P = 0.041) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-2 (APACHE II) score (P = 0.003) were associated with the risk of mortality. Furthermore, increased Ang-2 levels and EVLWI at 24 h and 48 h were associated with an increased risk of mortality. Moreover, the APACHE II score at hospital admission significantly predicted the risk of mortality (area under the curve [AUC], 0.834; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.665-0.983). Finally, the models containing a combination of Ang-2 level and EVLWI at 24 h (AUC, 0.908; 95% CI, 0.774-0.996) and Ang-2 level and EVLWI at 48 h (AUC, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.817-1.000) had high diagnostic values for predicting risk of mortality. CONCLUSION: The study findings indicate that Ang-2 levels and EVLWI at 24 h and 48 h after admission are significantly associated with the risk of mortality.

Application of Lee-Carter model in the prediction of mortality risk in digestive tract cancer in Suzhou / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective A Lee-Carter model was used to predict the risk and trend of mortality in the digestive tract cancer in Suzhou from 2002 to 2016. Methods The crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated based on deaths of digestive tract cancer which was identified from Suzhou chronic disease surveillance system.We used Lee-Carter model to predict the trend of mortality in digestive tract cancer. Results The effectiveness of the results forecasted by Lee-Carter model was validated in the data of digestive tract cancer mortality from 2012 to 2016 in Suzhou. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values for the model were 2.48% and 4.13% for the age and year respectively, which indicated a well accepted prediction value. The mortality index was on the down trend in overall digestive tract cancer from 2002 to 2016, among which the mortality index in upper digestive tract cancer decreased, while the mortality index in lower digestive tract cancer increased. The mortality rate of upper digestive tract cancer was 4.23 fold higher than that of lower digestive tract cancer, and mortality rate in male was 2.17 times higher than that in female. Conclusions Our study observed a downward mortality trend in digestive tract cancer overall. Notably, the male mortality rate of lower digestive tract cancer was on an upward trend. In recent years, Suzhou has been undergoing a rapid population aging with medical and health level was increasing as well.