Prediction of outcomes in patients with local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma: development and validation of a four-factor prognostic model integrating baseline characteristics and [18F]FDG PET/CT parameters.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic value of [18F]FDG PET/CT parameters in local recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC) and establish a prognostic tool for lrNPC patients based on these [18F]FDG PET/CT parameters. METHODS: A total of 358 lrNPC patients seen from 2010 to 2019 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center with complete baseline characteristics and [18F]FDG PET/CT data were retrospectively analyzed. Maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax), SUVmean, SUVpeak, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and heterogeneity index (HI) for recurrent nasopharynx tumors were included. Cox regression analysis was performed to select candidate variables. Subsequently, a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) for lrNPC patients was developed and internally validated. RESULTS: Multivariate Cox analysis results suggested that age ≥ 47 years (hazard ratio (HR), 1.62 (1.18-2.24); p = 0.003)，with smoking history (HR, 1.41 (1.01-1.98); p = 0.046), recurrent T stage {[rT3 vs rT1/2: HR, 1.81 (1.04-3.12); p = 0.037]; [rT4 vs rT1/2: HR, 2.46 (1.32-4.60); p = 0.005]}, and TLG {[37.1-184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 2.26 (1.49-3.42); p < 0.001]; [>184.3 vs ≤ 37.1: HR, 4.31 (2.50-7.43); p < 0.001]) were independent predictors of OS. A 4-factor nomogram was generated to stratify patients into 3 risk groups. This novel model showed good discrimination with a high C-index (0.752, 95%CI: 0.714-0.790). In addition, the calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted probabilities and actual observations and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the nomogram was useful for clinical decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed that [18F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. The 4-factor prognostic model combing baseline patient characteristics with [18F]FDG PET/CT parameters for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and clinical application potential. KEY POINTS: • [18F]FDG PET/CT parameters were valuable in predicting OS and PFS for lrNPC patients. • The novel 4-factor nomogram for lrNPC patients had good discrimination, agreement, and potential for clinical application.

Association of plasma irisin concentration with obesity among children:a cohort study / 中国学校卫生

Objective@#To explore the longitudinal association of the levels of plasma irisin among children with changes in obesity related parameters and newly onset obesity, and to explore whether physical activity (PA) and sedentary behavior(SB) have regulatory effects, to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of childhood obesity work.@*Methods@#Cluster random sampling method was used to select 521 children from five schools in Guangzhou in 2017 at baseline and were followed up in 2019. A based on baseline PA and SB, children who meet the following criterion were selected:moderate vigorous intensity PA≥60 min/d or <150 min/week; and gender , age specific SB≥ P 75 or SB < P 25 . Plasma irisin concentration was measured in all the selected children. Multiple linear regression and Logistic regression were conducted to analyze the association.@*Results@#The two year cumulative incidence of obesity, overweight and obesity, and central obesity was 2.82%, 6.57%, and 6.81%, respectively. There was no statistically significant association between plasma irisin levels and changes in obesity related parameters, newly onset overweight obesity or central obesity among children ( P >0.05). After stratified by PA, the irisin concentration in the low PA group was positively associated with weight change ( B=0.229, P =0.03). After stratified by SB, the irisin concentration in the low SB group was positively associated with the height change ( B=0.210, P <0.05). In addition, PA level and SB level both had a moderating effect on the association between plasma irisin levels and the weight change ( P PA=0.01, P SB =0.05).@*Conclusion@#PA and SB show moderating effect on plasma irisin concentration and weight gain. No association of irisin concentration with newly onset overweight or obesity among children has been found.