BITES: balanced individual treatment effect for survival data.

MOTIVATION: Estimating the effects of interventions on patient outcome is one of the key aspects of personalized medicine. Their inference is often challenged by the fact that the training data comprises only the outcome for the administered treatment, and not for alternative treatments (the so-called counterfactual outcomes). Several methods were suggested for this scenario based on observational data, i.e. data where the intervention was not applied randomly, for both continuous and binary outcome variables. However, patient outcome is often recorded in terms of time-to-event data, comprising right-censored event times if an event does not occur within the observation period. Albeit their enormous importance, time-to-event data are rarely used for treatment optimization. We suggest an approach named BITES (Balanced Individual Treatment Effect for Survival data), which combines a treatment-specific semi-parametric Cox loss with a treatment-balanced deep neural network; i.e. we regularize differences between treated and non-treated patients using Integral Probability Metrics (IPM). RESULTS: We show in simulation studies that this approach outperforms the state of the art. Furthermore, we demonstrate in an application to a cohort of breast cancer patients that hormone treatment can be optimized based on six routine parameters. We successfully validated this finding in an independent cohort. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: We provide BITES as an easy-to-use python implementation including scheduled hyper-parameter optimization (https://github.com/sschrod/BITES). The data underlying this article are available in the CRAN repository at https://rdrr.io/cran/survival/man/gbsg.html and https://rdrr.io/cran/survival/man/rotterdam.html. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Reference point insensitive molecular data analysis.

MOTIVATION: In biomedicine, every molecular measurement is relative to a reference point, like a fixed aliquot of RNA extracted from a tissue, a defined number of blood cells, or a defined volume of biofluid. Reference points are often chosen for practical reasons. For example, we might want to assess the metabolome of a diseased organ but can only measure metabolites in blood or urine. In this case, the observable data only indirectly reflects the disease state. The statistical implications of these discrepancies in reference points have not yet been discussed. RESULTS: Here, we show that reference point discrepancies compromise the performance of regression models like the LASSO. As an alternative, we suggest zero-sum regression for a reference point insensitive analysis. We show that zero-sum regression is superior to the LASSO in case of a poor choice of reference point both in simulations and in an application that integrates intestinal microbiome analysis with metabolomics. Moreover, we describe a novel coordinate descent based algorithm to fit zero-sum elastic nets. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The R-package "zeroSum" can be downloaded at https://github.com/rehbergT/zeroSum Moreover, we provide all R-scripts and data used to produce the results of this manuscript as Supplementary Material CONTACT: Michael.Altenbuchinger@ukr.de, Thorsten.Rehberg@ukr.de and Rainer.Spang@ukr.deSupplementary information: Supplementary material is available at Bioinformatics online.