Ice retreat in Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica during a warm interglacial.

Efforts to improve sea level forecasting on a warming planet have focused on determining the temperature, sea level and extent of polar ice sheets during Earth's past interglacial warm periods1-3. About 400,000 years ago, during the interglacial period known as Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS11), the global temperature was 1 to 2 degrees Celsius greater2 and sea level was 6 to 13 metres higher1,3. Sea level estimates in excess of about 10 metres, however, have been discounted because these require a contribution from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet3, which has been argued to have remained stable for millions of years before and includes MIS114,5. Here we show how the evolution of 234U enrichment within the subglacial waters of East Antarctica recorded the ice sheet's response to MIS11 warming. Within the Wilkes Basin, subglacial chemical precipitates of opal and calcite record accumulation of 234U (the product of rock-water contact within an isolated subglacial reservoir) up to 20 times higher than that found in marine waters. The timescales of 234U enrichment place the inception of this reservoir at MIS11. Informed by the 234U cycling observed in the Laurentide Ice Sheet, where 234U accumulated during periods of ice stability6 and was flushed to global oceans in response to deglaciation7, we interpret our East Antarctic dataset to represent ice loss within the Wilkes Basin at MIS11. The 234U accumulation within the Wilkes Basin is also observed in the McMurdo Dry Valleys brines8-10, indicating11 that the brine originated beneath the adjacent East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The marine origin of brine salts10 and bacteria12 implies that MIS11 ice loss was coupled with marine flooding. Collectively, these data indicate that during one of the warmest Pleistocene interglacials, the ice sheet margin at the Wilkes Basin retreated to near the precipitate location, about 700 kilometres inland from the current position of the ice margin, which-assuming current ice volumes-would have contributed about 3 to 4 metres13 to global sea levels.

Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present.

Since 65 million years ago (Ma), Earth's climate has undergone a significant and complex evolution, the finer details of which are now coming to light through investigations of deep-sea sediment cores. This evolution includes gradual trends of warming and cooling driven by tectonic processes on time scales of 10(5) to 10(7) years, rhythmic or periodic cycles driven by orbital processes with 10(4)- to 10(6)-year cyclicity, and rare rapid aberrant shifts and extreme climate transients with durations of 10(3) to 10(5) years. Here, recent progress in defining the evolution of global climate over the Cenozoic Era is reviewed. We focus primarily on the periodic and anomalous components of variability over the early portion of this era, as constrained by the latest generation of deep-sea isotope records. We also consider how this improved perspective has led to the recognition of previously unforeseen mechanisms for altering climate.

Climate response to orbital forcing across the Oligocene-Miocene boundary.

Spectral analyses of an uninterrupted 5.5-million-year (My)-long chronology of late Oligocene-early Miocene climate and ocean carbon chemistry from two deep-sea cores recovered in the western equatorial Atlantic reveal variance concentrated at all Milankovitch frequencies. Exceptional spectral power in climate is recorded at the 406-thousand-year (ky) period eccentricity band over a 3.4-million-year period [20 to 23.4 My ago (Ma)] as well as in the 125- and 95-ky bands over a 1.3-million-year period (21.7 to 23.0 Ma) of suspected low greenhouse gas levels. Moreover, a major transient glaciation at the epoch boundary ( approximately 23 Ma), Mi-1, corresponds with a rare orbital congruence involving obliquity and eccentricity. The anomaly, which consists of low-amplitude variance in obliquity (a node) and a minimum in eccentricity, results in an extended period ( approximately 200 ky) of low seasonality orbits favorable to ice-sheet expansion on Antarctica.

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective.

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

Possible methane-induced polar warming in the early Eocene.

Reconstructions of early Eocene climate depict a world in which the polar environments support mammals and reptiles, deciduous forests, warm oceans and rare frost conditions. At the same time, tropical sea surface temperatures are interpreted to have been the same as or slightly cooler than present values. The question of how to warm polar regions of Earth without noticeably warming the tropics remains unresolved; increased amounts of greenhouse gases would be expected to warm all latitudes equally. Oceanic heat transport has been postulated as a mechanism for heating high latitudes, but it is difficult to explain the dynamics that would achieve this. Here we consider estimates of Eocene wetland areas and suggest that the flux of methane, an important greenhouse gas, may have been substantially greater during the Eocene than at present. Elevated methane concentrations would have enhanced early Eocene global warming, and also might specifically have prevented severe winter cooling of polar regions because of the potential of atmospheric methane to promote the formation of optically thick, polar stratospheric ice clouds.