Energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling for the EU energy and post-COVID-19 transitions.

Relevant energy questions have arisen because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic shock leads to emissions' reductions consistent with the rates of decrease required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Those unforeseen drastic reductions in emissions are temporary as long as they do not involve structural changes. However, the COVID-19 consequences and the subsequent policy response will affect the economy for decades. Focusing on the EU, this discussion article argues how recovery plans are an opportunity to deepen the way towards a low-carbon economy, improving at the same time employment, health, and equity and the role of modelling tools. Long-term alignment with the low-carbon path and the development of a resilient transition towards renewable sources should guide instruments and policies, conditioning aid to energy-intensive sectors such as transport, tourism, and the automotive industry. However, the potential dangers of short-termism and carbon leakage persist. The current energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling tools are precious to widen the scope and deal with these complex problems. The scientific community has to assess disparate, non-equilibrium, and non-ordinary scenarios, such as sectors and countries lockdowns, drastic changes in consumption patterns, significant investments in renewable energies, and disruptive technologies and incorporate uncertainty analysis. All these instruments will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of decarbonization options and potential consequences on employment, income distribution, and vulnerability.

Unmasking social distant damage of developed regions' lifestyle: A decoupling analysis of the indecent labour footprint.

A fair path to achieve a sustainable world would imply reducing the eventual negative effects linked to the production process while increasing economic output, which is referred to in the literature as impact decoupling. This article aims to assess whether global consumption chains are currently on the decoupling path or not, from a social point of view. Specifically, we address the working conditions which developed societies' lifestyle sparked at a distance in global factory countries, focusing on the most harmful consequences of an indecent work. Additionally, we determine the kind of decoupling observed through the new concept of social footprints' elasticities with respect to final demand for each region. We employ a Multi-Regional Input-Output model and an own elaboration database of social impacts concerning undignified working conditions. Results indicate that most countries achieved the goal of decoupling occupational injuries -both fatal and non-fatal- from production, while results for forced labour show a slower and sometimes uncertain process of decoupling. European Union and United States' footprints have been reduced overtime for the three impacts. However, more than half of these footprints are still generated by imports, mainly from developing regions.

The carbon footprint of the U.S. multinationals' foreign affiliates.

Multinational enterprises (MNE) need to be a part of the solution in the fight against climate change, as claimed by investors and consumers, reducing emissions within their operations and supply chains. This paper measures the carbon footprint of U.S. MNE foreign affiliates (US-MNE) operating beyond the U.S. borders. Using a multiregional input-output model and information about US-MNE activities, the US-MNE carbon footprint ranks US-MNE as the 12th top emitter of the world. In relative terms, one dollar of value added generated by US-MNE affiliates operating abroad requires higher emissions than the domestic average and the ratio increases when only developing host countries are considered. Only 8% of total carbon footprint returns to the U.S. as virtual carbon embodied in the U.S. final consumption. Potential technology transfers between the U.S. parent company and affiliates to reduce US-MNE carbon footprint have been performed to evaluate potential rippled effects of mitigation actions.

How carbon-friendly is nuclear energy? A hybrid MRIO-LCA model of a Spanish facility.

Spain faces the challenge of 80-95% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2050 (European Energy Roadmap). As a possible first step to fulfill this objective, this paper presents a two-level analysis. First, we estimate the carbon footprint of a hypothetical nuclear facility in Spain. Using a hybrid multiregional input-output model, to avoid truncation while diminishing sector aggregation problems and to improve environmental leakages estimations, we calculate the CO2 equivalent emissions associated with the different phases of the nuclear life-cycle--construction, fuel processing and operation and maintenance--taking into account the countries or regions where the emissions have been generated. Our results estimate a nuclear carbon footprint of 21.30 gCO2e/kWh, of which 89% comes from regions outside Spain. In some regions, the highest impacts are mostly direct (92%, 95%, and 92% of total carbon emissions in the U.S., France, and UK, respectively), meaning that these emissions are linked to the inputs directly required for nuclear energy production; in other regions, indirect emissions are higher (83% in China), which becomes relevant for policy measures. Second, through the analyses of different scenarios, we unravel and quantify how different assumptions that are often taken in the literature result in different carbon emissions.

Financial crisis, virtual carbon in global value chains, and the importance of linkage effects. The Spain-china case.

Trade has a disproportionate environmental impact, while the international fragmentation of production promotes different patterns of intermediate inputs and final goods. Therefore, we split up the balance of domestic embodied emissions in trade (BDEET) to assess it. We find that Spain has a significant emissions deficit with China between 2005 and 2011. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 reduced Spanish imports of pollution-intensive inputs from China and slightly improved the BDEET. China primarily exports indirect virtual carbon, representing 86% of the total, especially from Production of electricity, gas, and water sector. These linkages effects in China indicate that post-Kyoto agreements must focus not only on traded goods but also on the environmental efficiency of all domestic production chains. The methodology proposed allows us to identify the agents responsible for this trade in both Spain and China, namely the sectors importing intermediate inputs (Construction and Transport equipment) and industries and consumers importing final goods (Textiles, Other manufactures, Computers, and Machinery). The relevant sectors uncertainties found when we compare the results for BDEET and emissions embodied in bilateral trade (BEET) lead us to recommend the former methodology to evaluate the implications of environmental and energy policy for different industries and agents.