Finding workers, offenders, or students most at-risk for violence: actuarial tests save lives and resources.

147 adults (107 men, 40 women) and 89 adolescents (61 boys, 28 girls), selected randomly from referrals and volunteers, were given the Ammons Quick Test (QT), the Beck Suicide Scale (BSS), the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory Second (MMPI-2) or Adolescent Versions (MMPI-A), the Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices, and the Standard Predictor (SP) of Violence Potential Adult or Adolescent Versions. The goals were to: (a) demonstrate computer and paper-and-pencil tests correlated; (b) validate tests to identify at-risk for violence; (c) show that identifying at-risk saves lives and resources; and (d) find which industries benefited from testing at-risk. Paper-and-pencil vs. computer test correlations (.83-.99), sensitivity (.97-.98), and specificity (.50-.97) were computed. Testing at-risk saves lives and resources. Critical industries for testing at-risk individuals may include airlines, energy generating industries, insurance, military, nonprofit-religious, prisoners, trucking or port workers, and veterans.

Ammons quick test validity among randomly selected referrals.

After selection using a random number table, from volunteer referrals, 89 Youth (61 boys, 28 girls; 48 African Americans, 2 Asian Americans, 27 Euro-Americans, 12 Hispanic Americans), and 147 Adults (107 men, 40 women; 11 African Americans, 6 Asian Americans, 124 Euro-Americans, 6 Hispanic Americans) were administered the Ammons Quick Test (QT). Means, confidence intervals, standard deviations, and Pearson product-moment correlations among tests were computed. The Ammons QT was moderately to strongly and significantly correlated statistically with: the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test-3b (PPVT-3b); the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-2 Parent/Teacher Form; the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-4) or the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-4); and the Wide Range Achievement Test-Fourth Edition (WRAT-4) Blue and Green Forms. After 51 years, the original norms for the Ammons QT remain valid measures of receptive vocabulary, verbal intelligence, and auditory information processing useful to clinicians.

Introduction to a series of studies on abused, delinquent, violent, and homicidal youth and adults.

To study the risks of abuse and homicide, 5 studies of unique groups of abused, delinquent, violent, homicidal, and criminal cases representing ages from infancy to adulthood are presented with areas (AUCs) under the receiver operating curves (ROCs) and odds ratios (OR) for commission of homicide. Delinquent samples compared show changes in risks since the early 1900s. Probation-parole tests contrasted reformed offenders with recidivists. Current data substantively extended examination of risks to infants and to female cases, increasing accuracy of prediction from the previous best AUCs = 0.69-0.76 to AUCs = 0.81-0.98. [corrected] Empirically supported treatments may reduce onset of delinquency or reoffense beyond 10 to 40% if targeted to developmental risks among at-risk youth and within high-homicide urban areas. Parental costs of raising an abused, delinquent, or violent youth from birth to 17 years were double those of controls and, for a youth who committed murder, 23 times higher. Use of risk-based screening and empirical treatments are legal under U.S., British, and European constitutions and the U.N. Charter.

Accepted legal applications of actuarial testing and delinquency interventions: examples of savings in real-life situations.

Violent crime, especially by youth, is an increasing and costly problem. Zagar and colleagues have described five empirical studies in which youths' and adults' risks were identified and used to predict commission of homicide. The samples were more representative of the most violent modern urban delinquents than samples in previous research from smaller cities. From Zagar and colleagues' results, it is clear that the use of actuarial personality and probation-parole tests to identify at-risk individuals and target treatments to their needs would allow organizations to reduce loss of life and improve quality of life and economic and social well-being. The current article first provides a brief review of the situations in which the courts already accept the use of actuarial personality and probation-parole tests. Following that are several representations of the costs and benefits of broader application of testing and treatment in schools, universities, and workplaces. Finally, a specific proposal for generalized screening is proposed in a city of 3 million, with estimates of lives saved and costs reduced.

Cost comparisons of raising a child from birth to 17 years among samples of abused, delinquent, violent, and homicidal youth using victimization and justice system estimates.

Data from youth studied by Zagar and colleagues were randomly sampled to create groups of controls and abused, delinquent, violent, and homicidal youth (n=30 in each). Estimated costs of raising a nondelinquent youth from birth to 17 yr. were compared with the average costs incurred by other youth in each group. Estimates of living expenses, direct and indirect costs of victimization, and criminal justice system expenditures were summed. Groups differed significantly on total expenses, victimization costs, and criminal justice expenditures. Mean total costs for a homicidal youth were estimated at $3,935,433, while those for a control youth were $150,754. Abused, delinquent, and violent youth had average total expenses roughly double the total mean costs of controls. Prevention of dropout, alcoholism, addiction, career delinquency, or homicide justifies interception and empirical treatment on a cost-benefit basis, but also based on the severe personal costs to the victims and to the youth themselves.