Changes in the built environment and changes in the amount of walking over time: longitudinal results from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

Lack of longitudinal research hinders causal inference on the association between the built environment and walking. In the present study, we used data from 6,027 adults in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who were 45-84 years of age at baseline to investigate the association of neighborhood built environment with trends in the amount of walking between 2000 and 2012. Walking for transportation and walking for leisure were assessed at baseline and at 3 follow-up visits (median follow-up = 9.15 years). Time-varying built environment measures (measures of population density, land use, number of destinations, bus access, and street connectivity) were created using geographic information systems. We used linear mixed models to estimate the associations between baseline levels of and a change in each built environment feature and a change in the frequency of walking. After adjustment for potential confounders, we found that higher baseline levels of population density, area zoned for retail, social destinations, walking destinations, and street connectivity were associated with greater increases in walking for transportation over time. Higher baseline levels of land zoned for residential use and distance to buses were associated with less pronounced increases (or decreases) in walking for transportation over time. Increases in the number of social destinations, the number of walking destinations, and street connectivity over time were associated with greater increases in walking for transportation. Higher baseline levels of both land zoned for retail and walking destinations were associated with greater increases in leisure walking, but no changes in built environment features were associated with leisure walking. The creation of mixed-use, dense developments may encourage adults to incorporate walking for transportation into their everyday lives.

Built environment change and change in BMI and waist circumference: Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine longitudinal associations of the neighborhood built environment with objectively measured body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in a geographically and racial/ethnically diverse group of adults. METHODS: This study used data from 5,506 adult participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, aged 45-84 years in 2000 (baseline). BMI and WC were assessed at baseline and four follow-up visits (median follow-up 9.1 years). Time-varying built environment measures (population density, land-use, destinations, bus access, and street characteristics) were created using Geographic Information Systems. Principal components analysis was used to derive composite scores for three built environment factors. Fixed-effects models, tightly controlling for all time-invariant characteristics, estimated associations between change in the built environment, and change in BMI and WC. RESULTS: Increases in the intensity of development (higher density of walking destinations and population density, and lower percent residential) were associated with less pronounced increases or decreases over time in BMI and WC. Changes in connected retail centers (higher percent retail, higher street connectivity) and public transportation (distance to bus) were not associated with changes in BMI or WC. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal changes in the built environment, particularly increased density, are associated with decreases in BMI and WC.

Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions.

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.