The workbook approach to making estimates and projecting future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.

This paper describes an approach to making estimates and short term projections of future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. This approach focuses on identifying populations which through their behaviour are at higher risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners. Estimates of the size and HIV prevalence of these populations allow the total number of HIV infected people in a country or region to be estimated. Subsequently, assumptions about the possible level and timing of saturation of HIV prevalence among each population can be used to explore future scenarios of HIV prevalence. The basic structure of the software used to make estimates and projections is described. This software includes a set of consistency and audit checks to help exclude unrealistic projections. The paper also discusses the strengths and weakness to this approach to making estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.

A prospective randomized, comparative, open-label trial of the safety and efficacy of paromomycin (aminosidine) plus sodium stibogluconate versus sodium stibogluconate alone for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis.

Response to treatment with organic pentavalent antimonials, the standard first-line treatment for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), has been decreasing since their introduction into India. Combining sodium stibogluconate (SB) with paromomycin (PM) may be an efficient alternative to single-agent therapy. This trial was designed to assess the safety and efficacy of PM 12 or 18 mg/kg daily plus SB 20 mg/kg daily for 21 days compared to SB alone for 30 days. One hundred and fifty patients were randomly assigned in 1996 to 1 of the 3 treatments and followed-up for 180 days. At the end of treatment, 49 of 52 patients receiving PM12 + SB, 46 of 48 receiving PM18 + SB, and 27 of 49 patients receiving SB alone, were cured. During follow-up there was 1 relapse in each of the treatment groups, giving final cure rates of 48 of 52 (92.3%) for PM12 + SB, 45 of 48 (93.8%) for PM18 + SB, and 26 of 49 (53.1%) for SB. PM plus SB for 21 days at either 12 or 18 mg/kg daily was significantly more effective than SB alone for 30 days (chi 2 P < 0.001). One patient (SB alone) had experienced a serious adverse event: cardiotoxicity at day 8 (myocarditis and ECG changes) which caused withdrawal from the study. Only 19 of 100 patients enrolled in the PM treatment arms had a complete audiogram series conducted thus making it difficult to assess oto-toxicity. PM 12 or 18 mg/kg daily plus a standard dose of SB for 21 days was statistically more effective than SB in producing a final cure for patients with VL in Bihar, India.