Fertility in urban areas of Mexico: Implications for the theory of the demographic transition.

Recent investigations indicate that fertility is not universally associated with urbanization and economic development in the manner predicted by the theory of the demographic transition. It is possible, however, that these investigations only partially test the theory, for the degree of industrialization in urbanareas is rarely taken into account. Two hypotheses are tested based upon Mexican census and vital registration data for 1940-60: (a) urban fertility is inversely related to the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy and (b) changes in urban fertility are inversely related to changes in the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy.At each census date from 1940 to 1960, the association between urban fertility (age-standardized child-woman ratio adjusted for infant mortality) and the percent in the secondary sector is low and positive. In 1960, however, the association is negative (suggesting a possible change in the direction of the association), but city growth rates and the proportion of females married are more closely related to fertility than percent in the secondary sector. Hypothesis a, then, receives little support from the data.Much the same is true of hypothesis b. The association between changes in urban fertility and changes in the percent in the secondary sector is positive. Moreover, city growth rates and changes in the proportion literate explain more of the variation in fertility change than does the percent in the secondary sector.In addition, over-all fertility has risen since 1940, and this rise is pronounced in large urban areas. It is suggested that among certain segments of Mexican society, the response to economic development has been an increase rather than a reduction in fertility. It is further suggested that if city growth is indicative of rural-urban migration, the presence of large numbers of rural migrants in urbanareas may help to explain the decreasing size of the urban-rural fertility differential in Mexico.If this interpretation is correct, the theory of the demographic transition is in need of further modification, specification, and verification.

A note on the accuracy of male responses to questions on fertility.

There seems to be little doubt that reliablefertility information can be obtained from Latin A merican women. The question remains, however, whether such information can be obtained from males. This paper presents evidence on the accuracy of reports of the number of live births collected in a survey of 1,640 male residents of the Monterrey, Mexico metropolitan area. The accuracy of the number of live births recorded in this survey is evaluated on the basis of (1) internal consistency, (2) the Mexican census, and (3) previous investigation. The present analysis indicates that the information collected is of good quality and potentially useful for several types of fertility analysis. No evidence was found of underreporting.

Some factors associated with Urban-Rural fertility differentials in Mexico.

Abstract Warren C. Robinson and others have presented strong evidence that a substantial portion of the variation in urban-rural fertility differentials is attributable to variations in infant and child mortality when the child-woman ratio is the index of fertility. This paper focuses on the contributions of several additional factors in accounting for variations in urban-rural fertility differentials. 1960 census data for 23 urban and rural areas in Mexico are investigated by means of correlation analysis. City growth and literacy differentials are found to be significantly related to the size of the urban-rural fertility (child-woman ratio) differential, but their effect appears to be indirect, and brought about by their association with urban-rural differentials in the sex ratio at the reproductive ages, age at marriage, and the percentage married. The latter three factors are positively related to the size of the urban-rural fertility differential. City growth is inversely related to the magnitude of the fertility differential. This analysis suggests that changes in (urban) population composition may favour higher as well as lower urban fertility and thus affect the size of the urban-rural fertility differential. If this is true, it would appear that urbanization does not necessarily lead to lower total fertility (at least in its early stages), but may lead to the modification of certain demographic characteristics which formerly favoured lower urban fertility. The long-run effects of urbanization are more difficult to assess, but it is suggested that migrants to urban areas may require several generations to manifest lower fertility. This would constitute an additional factor favouring higher urban fertility. The possible contribution of changing mortality conditions is also considered.