Prediction of long-term survival among patients with cirrhosis using time-varying models.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction among patients with cirrhosis has historically focused on short-term (ie, 90 days) mortality among patients waitlisted for a transplant. Although several models have been developed to predict intermediate and longer term survivals, they have important limitations, namely, including only baseline laboratory and clinical variables to predict survival over a time horizon of years. METHODS: We developed prediction models using time-varying laboratory and clinical data among patients with cirrhosis in the OneFlorida Clinical Research Consortium. We fit extended Cox models and assessed model discrimination and calibration in complete-case analysis and imputation of missing laboratory data. RESULTS: Among 15,277 patients, 9922 (64.9%) were included in the complete-case analysis. Final models included demographic (age and sex), time-updating laboratory (albumin, alanine transaminase, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, platelet, and sodium), and time-updating clinical (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and bleeding esophageal varices) variables. Model discrimination was excellent in the complete-case analysis [AUC and concordance-index (C-index) > 0.85] at 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year time points. Model performance was unchanged with the exclusion of race and ethnicity as model predictors. Model discrimination was excellent (C-index >0.8) when imputation was used for patients with 1 or 2 missing laboratory variables. DISCUSSION: Using data from a statewide sample of patients with cirrhosis, we developed and internally validated a time-updating model to predict survival with excellent discrimination. Based on its measures of discrimination (AUC and c-index), this model matched or exceeded the performance of other published risk models depending on the time horizon. If externally validated, this risk score could improve the care of patients with cirrhosis by improving counseling on intermediate and longer term outcomes to guide clinical decision-making and advanced care planning.

Degradation rates influence the ability of composite samples to represent 24-hourly means of SARS-CoV-2 and other microbiological target measures in wastewater.

The utility of using severe-acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA for assessing the prevalence of COVID-19 within communities begins with the design of the sample collection program. The objective of this study was to assess the utility of 24-hour composites as representative samples for measuring multiple microbiological targets in wastewater, and whether normalization of SARS-CoV-2 by endogenous targets can be used to decrease hour to hour variability at different watershed scales. Two sets of experiments were conducted, in tandem with the same wastewater, with samples collected at the building, cluster, and community sewershed scales. The first set of experiments focused on evaluating degradation of microbiological targets: SARS-CoV-2, Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) - a surrogate spiked into the wastewater, plus human waste indicators of Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV), Beta-2 microglobulin (B2M), and fecal coliform bacteria (FC). The second focused on the variability of these targets from samples, collected each hour on the hour. Results show that SARS-CoV-2, PMMoV, and B2M were relatively stable, with minimal degradation over 24-h. SIV, which was spiked-in prior to analysis, degraded significantly and FC increased significantly over the course of 24 h, emphasizing the possibility for decay and growth within wastewater. Hour-to-hour variability of the source wastewater was large between each hour of sampling relative to the variability of the SARS-CoV-2 levels calculated between sewershed scales; thus, differences in SARS-CoV-2 hourly variability were not statistically significant between sewershed scales. Results further provided that the quantified representativeness of 24-h composite samples (i.e., statistical equivalency compared against hourly collected grabs) was dependent upon the molecular target measured. Overall, improvements made by normalization were minimal within this study. Degradation and multiplication for other targets should be evaluated when deciding upon whether to collect composite or grab samples in future studies.

Correlative analysis of wastewater trends with clinical cases and hospitalizations through five dominant variant waves of COVID-19.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been utilized to track community infections of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) by detecting RNA of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), within samples collected from wastewater. The correlations between community infections and wastewater measurements of the RNA can potentially change as SARS-CoV-2 evolves into new variations by mutating. This study analyzed SARS-CoV-2 RNA, and indicators of human waste in wastewater from two sewersheds of different scales (University of Miami (UM) campus and Miami-Dade County Central District wastewater treatment plant (CDWWTP)) during five internally defined COVID-19 variant dominant periods (Initial, Pre-Delta, Delta, Omicron and Post-Omicron wave). SARS-CoV-2 RNA quantities were compared against COVID-19 clinical cases and hospitalizations to evaluate correlations with wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Although correlations between documented clinical cases and hospitalizations were high, prevalence for a given wastewater SARS-CoV-2 level varied depending upon the variant analyzed. The correlative relationship was significantly steeper (more cases per level found in wastewater) for the Omicron-dominated period. For hospitalization, the relationships were steepest for the Initial wave, followed by the Delta wave with flatter slopes during all other waves. Overall results were interpreted in the context of SARS-CoV-2 virulence and vaccination rates among the community.

Potentially Inappropriate Medication Administration Is Associated With Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in Older Surgical Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The American Geriatrics Society (AGS) Beers Criteria is an explicit list of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) best avoided in adults ≥65 years of age. Cognitively impaired and frail surgical patients often experience poor outcomes after surgery, but the impacts of PIMs on these patients are unclear. Our objective was to assess whether perioperative PIM administration was associated with poor outcomes in geriatric surgical patients. We then evaluated the association between PIM administration and postoperative outcomes in subgroups of patients who were frail or cognitively impaired. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥65 years of age who underwent elective inpatient surgery at a large academic medical center from February 2018 to January 2020. Edmonton Frail Scale and Mini-Cog screening tools were administered to all patients at their preoperative clinic visit. A Mini-Cog score of 0 to 2 was considered cognitive impairment, and frailty was defined by an Edmonton Frail Scale score of ≥8. Patients were divided into 2 groups depending on whether they received at least 1 PIM (PIM+), based on the 2019 AGS Beers Criteria, in the perioperative period or none (PIM-). We assessed the association of preoperative frailty, cognitive impairment, and perioperative PIM administration with the length of hospital stay and discharge disposition using multiple regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, ASA physical status, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. RESULTS: Of the 1627 included patients (mean age, 73.7 years), 69.3% (n = 1128) received at least 1 PIM. A total of 12.7% of patients were frail, and 11.1% of patients were cognitively impaired; 64% of the frail patients and 58% of the cognitively impaired patients received at least 1 PIM. Perioperative PIM administration was associated with longer hospital stay after surgery (PIM-, 3.56 ± 5.2 vs PIM+, 4.93 ± 5.66 days; P < .001; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.360-0.546). Frail patients who received PIMs had an average length of stay (LOS) that was nearly 2 days longer than frail patients who did not receive PIMs (PIM-, 4.48 ± 5.04 vs PIM+, 6.33 ± 5.89 days; P = .02). Multiple regression analysis revealed no significant association between PIM administration and proportion of patients discharged to a care facility (PIM+, 26.3% vs PIM-, 28.7%; P = .87; 95% CI, -0.046 to 0.054). CONCLUSIONS: Perioperative PIM administration was common in older surgical patients, including cognitively impaired and frail patients. PIM administration was associated with an increased hospital LOS, particularly in frail patients. There was no association found between PIM administration and discharge disposition.

GPR39 Deficiency Impairs Memory and Alters Oxylipins and Inflammatory Cytokines Without Affecting Cerebral Blood Flow in a High-Fat Diet Mouse Model of Cognitive Impairment.

Vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) is the second most common cause of dementia. There is no treatment for VCI, in part due to a lack of understanding of the underlying mechanisms. The G-protein coupled receptor 39 (GPR39) is regulated by arachidonic acid (AA)-derived oxylipins that have been implicated in VCI. Furthermore, GPR39 is increased in microglia of post mortem human brains with VCI. Carriers of homozygous GPR39 SNPs have a higher burden of white matter hyperintensity, an MRI marker of VCI. We tested the hypothesis that GPR39 plays a protective role against high-fat diet (HFD)-induced cognitive impairment, in part mediated via oxylipins actions on cerebral blood flow (CBF) and neuroinflammation. Homozygous (KO) and heterozygous (Het) GPR39 knockout mice and wild-type (WT) littermates with and without HFD for 8 months were tested for cognitive performance using the novel object recognition (NOR) and the Morris water maze (MWM) tests, followed by CBF measurements using MRI. Brain tissue and plasma oxylipins were quantified with high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Cytokines and chemokines were measured using a multiplex assay. KO mice, regardless of diet, swam further away from platform location in the MWM compared to WT and Het mice. In the NOR test, there were no effects of genotype or diet. Brain and plasma AA-derived oxylipins formed by 11- and 15-lipoxygenase (LOX), cyclooxygenase (COX) and non-enzymatically were increased by HFD and GPR39 deletion. Interleukin-10 (IL-10) was lower in KO mice on HFD than standard diet (STD), whereas IL-4, interferon γ-induced protein-10 (IP-10) and monocyte chemotactic protein-3 (MCP-3) were altered by diet in both WT and KO, but were not affected by genotype. Resting CBF was reduced in WT and KO mice on HFD, with no change in vasoreactivity. The deletion of GPR39 did not change CBF compared to WT mice on either STD or HFD. We conclude that GPR39 plays a role in spatial memory retention and protects against HFD-induced cognitive impairment in part by modulating inflammation and AA-derived oxylipins. The results indicate that GPR39 and oxylipin pathways play a role and may serve as therapeutic targets in VCI.

Pharmacokinetics and Tolerability of Intraperitoneal Chloroprocaine After Fetal Extraction in Women Undergoing Cesarean Delivery.

BACKGROUND: Intraperitoneal chloroprocaine has been used during cesarean delivery to supplement suboptimal neuraxial anesthesia for decades. The short in vitro half-life of chloroprocaine (11-21 seconds) has been cited to support the safety of this approach. However, there are no data regarding the rate of absorption, representing patient drug exposure, through this route of administration. Accordingly, we designed a study to determine the in vivo half-life of intraperitoneal chloroprocaine and assess clinical tolerability. METHODS: We designed a single-center, prospective, cohort, multiple-dose escalation study of women 18 to 50 years of age undergoing cesarean delivery with spinal anesthesia. Chloroprocaine (40 mL) was administered after delivery of the newborn and before uterine closure. The first cohort (n = 5) received 1%, the second cohort (n = 5) received 2%, and the third cohort (n = 5) received 3% chloroprocaine solution. Maternal blood samples were obtained before administration and 1, 5, 10, 20, and 30 minutes after dosing. The primary objective was to define the pharmacokinetic profile of intraperitoneal chloroprocaine, including in vivo half-life. The secondary objective was to evaluate tolerability through determination of peak plasma concentration and prospective assessment for local anesthetic systemic toxicity. RESULTS: The peak plasma concentration occurred 5 minutes after intraperitoneal administration in all 3 cohorts: 64.8 ng/mL (6.5 µg/kg), 28.7 ng/mL (2.9 µg/kg), and 799.2 ng/mL (79.9 µg/kg) for 1%, 2%, and 3% chloroprocaine, respectively. The in vivo half-life of chloroprocaine after intraperitoneal administration was estimated to be 5.3 minutes (95% confidence interval, 4.0-6.6). We did not detect clinical signs of local anesthetic systemic toxicity in any of the 3 cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The in vivo half-life of intraperitoneal chloroprocaine (5.3 minutes) is more than an order of magnitude greater than the in vitro half-life (11-21 seconds). However, maximum plasma concentrations of chloroprocaine (C max range, 0.05-79.9 µg/kg) were not associated with local anesthetic systemic toxicity and remain well below our predefined safe level of exposure (970 µg/kg) and levels associated with clinical symptoms (2.6-2.9 mg/kg). Therefore, our study suggests that intraperitoneal chloroprocaine, in a dosage ≤1200 mg, administered after fetal extraction, is well tolerated during cesarean delivery.

Identification of miRNAs That Mediate Protective Functions of Anti-Cancer Drugs During White Matter Ischemic Injury.

We have previously shown that two anti-cancer drugs, CX-4945 and MS-275, protect and preserve white matter (WM) architecture and improve functional recovery in a model of WM ischemic injury. While both compounds promote recovery, CX-4945 is a selective Casein kinase 2 (CK2) inhibitor and MS-275 is a selective Class I histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor. Alterations in microRNAs (miRNAs) mediate some of the protective actions of these drugs. In this study, we aimed to (1) identify miRNAs expressed in mouse optic nerves (MONs); (2) determine which miRNAs are regulated by oxygen glucose deprivation (OGD); and (3) determine the effects of CX-4945 and MS-275 treatment on miRNA expression. RNA isolated from MONs from control and OGD-treated animals with and without CX-4945 or MS-275 treatment were quantified using NanoString nCounter® miRNA expression profiling. Comparative analysis of experimental groups revealed that 12 miRNAs were expressed at high levels in MONs. OGD upregulated five miRNAs (miR-1959, miR-501-3p, miR-146b, miR-201, and miR-335-3p) and downregulated two miRNAs (miR-1937a and miR-1937b) compared to controls. OGD with CX-4945 upregulated miR-1937a and miR-1937b, and downregulated miR-501-3p, miR-200a, miR-1959, and miR-654-3p compared to OGD alone. OGD with MS-275 upregulated miR-2134, miR-2141, miR-2133, miR-34b-5p, miR-153, miR-487b, miR-376b, and downregulated miR-717, miR-190, miR-27a, miR-1959, miR-200a, miR-501-3p, and miR-200c compared to OGD alone. Interestingly, miR-501-3p and miR-1959 were the only miRNAs upregulated by OGD, and downregulated by OGD plus CX-4945 and MS-275. Therefore, we suggest that protective functions of CX-4945 or MS-275 against WM injury maybe mediated, in part, through miRNA expression.

Fentanyl causes naloxone-resistant vocal cord closure: A platform for testing opioid overdose treatments.

BACKGROUND: High doses of the synthetic opioid fentanyl cause rapid and sustained vocal cord closure (VCC) leading to airway obstruction that prevents overdose victims from breathing. This airway effect is not caused by morphine-derived opiates (e.g. heroin), is distinct from respiratory depression, resistant to naloxone, and can be lethal. However, VCC has not been previously included in animal models of opioid overdose. METHODS: Video laryngoscopy was used to monitor vocal cord movement in anesthetized Sprague-Dawley rats. Rats were administered saline, fentanyl (5, 25, or 50 µg/kg) or morphine (5 mg/kg) in an intravenous (IV) bolus delivered over a 10 s period. The mu opioid receptor (MOR) antagonist naloxone was administered as a pre-treatment (1 mg/kg, IV) 5 min prior to fentanyl (25 µg/kg) or a post-treatment (1 and 2 mg/kg) 1 min after fentanyl (25 µg/kg). RESULTS: Fentanyl (25 and 50 µg/kg) caused sustained and lethal VCC within 10 s. Morphine (5 mg/kg) and fentanyl (5 µg/kg) caused only brief laryngospasm with full recovery. Pre-treatment with naloxone (1 mg/kg) prevented fentanyl-induced VCC, but naloxone (1 and 2 mg/kg) was unable to reverse VCC when administered after fentanyl. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate sustained VCC is a lethal physiological reaction, specific to fentanyl and resistant to naloxone treatment. While pre-treatment with naloxone prevented fentanyl-induced VCC, naloxone was unable to reverse the effect, suggesting a non-opioid receptor-mediated mechanism. These findings demonstrate the necessity of VCC inclusion in animal models of synthetic opioid overdose and the urgent need for more effective treatments for fentanyl-related overdoses.

A conditional approach for the receiver operating characteristic curve construction to evaluate diagnostic test performance in a family-matched case-control design.

Receiver operating characteristic curves are widely used in medical research to illustrate biomarker performance in binary classification, particularly with respect to disease or health status. Study designs that include related subjects, such as siblings, usually have common environmental or genetic factors giving rise to correlated biomarker data. The design could be used to improve detection of biomarkers informative of increased risk, allowing initiation of treatment to stop or slow disease progression. Available methods for receiver operating characteristic construction do not take advantage of correlation inherent in this design to improve biomarker performance. This paper will briefly review some developed methods for receiver operating characteristic curve estimation in settings with correlated data from case-control designs and will discuss the limitations of current methods for analyzing correlated familial paired data. An alternative approach using conditional receiver operating characteristic curves will be demonstrated. The proposed approach will use information about correlation among biomarker values, producing conditional receiver operating characteristic curves that evaluate the ability of a biomarker to discriminate between affected and unaffected subjects in a familial paired design.