ABSTRACT
The adoption of electronic health records in hospitals has ensured the availability of large datasets that can be used to predict medical complications. The trajectories of patients in real-world settings are highly variable, making longitudinal data modeling challenging. In recent years, significant progress has been made in the study of deep learning models applied to time series; however, the application of these models to irregular medical time series (IMTS) remains limited. To address this issue, we developed a generic deep-learning-based framework for modeling IMTS that facilitates the comparative studies of sequential neural networks (transformers and long short-term memory) and irregular time representation techniques. A validation study to predict retinopathy complications was conducted on 1207 patients with type 1 diabetes in a French database using their historical glycosylated hemoglobin measurements, without any data aggregation or imputation. The transformer-based model combined with the soft one-hot representation of time gaps achieved the highest score: an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 88.65%, specificity of 85.56%, sensitivity of 83.33% and an improvement of 11.7% over the same architecture without time information. This is the first attempt to predict retinopathy complications in patients with type 1 diabetes using deep learning and longitudinal data collected from patient visits. This study highlighted the significance of modeling time gaps between medical records to improve prediction performance and the utility of a generic framework for conducting extensive comparative studies.
