Comparison of nonlinear models to describe the feather growth and development curve in yellow-feathered chickens.

Feathers play a critical role in thermoregulation and directly influence poultry production. Poor feathering adversely affects living appearance and carcass quality, thus reducing profits. However, producers tend to ignore the importance of feather development and do not know the laws of feather growth and development. The objective of this study was to fit growth curves to describe the growth and development of feathers in yellow-feathered broilers during the embryonic and posthatching periods using different nonlinear functions (Gompertz, logistic and Bertalanffy). Feather mass and length were determined during the embryonic development and posthatching stages to identify which growth model most accurately described the feather growth pattern. The results showed that chick embryos began to grow feathers at approximately embryonic (E) day 10, and the feathers grew rapidly from E13 to E17. There was little change from E17 to the day of hatching (DOH). During the embryonic period, the Gompertz function (Y = 798.48e-203 431exp(-0.87t), Akaike's information criterion (AIC) = -0.950 × 103, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) = -0.711 × 103 and mean square error (MSE) = 559.308) provided the best fit for the feather growth curve compared with the other two functions. After hatching, feather mass and length changed little from the DOH to day (D) 14, increased rapidly from D21 to D91 and then grew slowly after D91. The first stage of feather molting occurred from 2 to 3 weeks of age when the down feathers were mostly shed and replaced with juvenile feathers, and the second stage occurred at approximately 13 to 15 weeks of age. The three nonlinear functions could overall fit the feather growth curve well, but the Bertalanffy model (Y = 116.88 × (1-0.86e-0.02t)3, AIC = 1.065 × 105, BIC = 1.077 × 105 and MSE = 11.308) showed the highest degree of fit among the models. Therefore, the Gompertz model exhibited the best goodness of fit for the feather growth curve during the embryonic development, while the Bertalanffy model was the most suitable model due to its accurate ability to predict the growth and development of feathers during the growth period, which is an important commercial characteristic of yellow-feathered chickens.

[Epidemiological characteristics of Coxsackie virus A16 caused hand foot and mouth disease cases in Guangdong province, 2012-2016].

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases caused by Coxsackie virus A16 (Cox A16) in Guangdong province from 2012 to 2016. Methods: The data of mild HFMD cases caused by Cox A16 were collected from 8 sentinel hospitals in 8 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong to estimate Cox A16 infection status and its population and time distribution characteristics. Results: (1) The highest estimated incidence of Cox A16 infection was in 2014 (113.0/100 000), followed by 2016 (86.4/100 000) and 2012 (79.1/100 000), while the estimated incidence was lower in 2015 (29.0/100 000) and 2013 (28.8/100 000). (2) Cox A16 was confirmed to be the predominant pathogen causing HFMD outbreaks (54.6%, 89/163). The number of outbreaks in the year with high incidence (28 outbreaks) was 11.2 times higher than that in the year with low incidence (2.5 outbreaks). (3) Across all age groups, the annual estimated incidence of Cox A16 infection decreased with age (trend χ(2)=853 905.63, P<0.01). The incidence was highest in age group 1 year (1 449.2/100 000), followed by that in age group 3 years (1 097.0/100 000), in age group 2 years (1 083.5/100 000), in age group 4 years (687.8/100 000) and in age group 0 year (604.9/100 000). Among the age groups <12 months, the estimated incidence increased with age (trend χ(2)=5 541.77, P<0.01), which was highest in age group 11-months (2 105.1/100 000), followed by that in age groups 10-months (1 448.6/100 000), 9-months (938.3/100 000), 8-months (703.3/100 000) and 6-months (664.6/100 000). (4) The annual incidence peak was during May (143.9/100 000)-June (131.5/100 000). Conclusion: The prevalence of Cox A16 infection differed with year in Guangdong during 2012-2016. When the incidence of Cox A16 infection was high, more outbreaks occurred. The prevalence occurred mainly in nurseries and kindergartens from May to June each year. Children aged 0-4 years were the high risk group for Cox A16 infection, children aged 6-11 months were at high risk for Cox A16 infection.