The response of aquatic ecosystems to the interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change.

Variations in stratospheric ozone and changes in the aquatic environment by climate change and human activity are modifying the exposure of aquatic ecosystems to UV radiation. These shifts in exposure have consequences for the distributions of species, biogeochemical cycles, and services provided by aquatic ecosystems. This Quadrennial Assessment presents the latest knowledge on the multi-faceted interactions between the effects of UV irradiation and climate change, and other anthropogenic activities, and how these conditions are changing aquatic ecosystems. Climate change results in variations in the depth of mixing, the thickness of ice cover, the duration of ice-free conditions and inputs of dissolved organic matter, all of which can either increase or decrease exposure to UV radiation. Anthropogenic activities release oil, UV filters in sunscreens, and microplastics into the aquatic environment that are then modified by UV radiation, frequently amplifying adverse effects on aquatic organisms and their environments. The impacts of these changes in combination with factors such as warming and ocean acidification are considered for aquatic micro-organisms, macroalgae, plants, and animals (floating, swimming, and attached). Minimising the disruptive consequences of these effects on critical services provided by the world's rivers, lakes and oceans (freshwater supply, recreation, transport, and food security) will not only require continued adherence to the Montreal Protocol but also a wider inclusion of solar UV radiation and its effects in studies and/or models of aquatic ecosystems under conditions of the future global climate.

Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system.

Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.

The Montreal Protocol and the fate of environmental plastic debris.

Microplastics (MPs) are an emerging class of pollutants in air, soil and especially in all aquatic environments. Secondary MPs are generated in the environment during fragmentation of especially photo-oxidised plastic litter. Photo-oxidation is mediated primarily by solar UV radiation. The implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments, which have resulted in controlling the tropospheric UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation load, is therefore pertinent to the fate of environmental plastic debris. Due to the Montreal Protocol high amounts of solar UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface have been avoided, retarding the oxidative fragmentation of plastic debris, leading to a slower generation and accumulation of MPs in the environment. Quantifying the impact of the Montreal Protocol in reducing the abundance of MPs in the environment, however, is complicated as the role of potential mechanical fragmentation of plastics under environmental mechanical stresses is poorly understood.

Oxidation and fragmentation of plastics in a changing environment; from UV-radiation to biological degradation.

Understanding the fate of plastics in the environment is of critical importance for the quantitative assessment of the biological impacts of plastic waste. Specially, there is a need to analyze in more detail the reputed longevity of plastics in the context of plastic degradation through oxidation and fragmentation reactions. Photo-oxidation of plastic debris by solar UV radiation (UVR) makes material prone to subsequent fragmentation. The fragments generated following oxidation and subsequent exposure to mechanical stresses include secondary micro- or nanoparticles, an emerging class of pollutants. The paper discusses the UV-driven photo-oxidation process, identifying relevant knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Serious gaps in knowledge exist concerning the wavelength sensitivity and the dose-response of the photo-fragmentation process. Given the heterogeneity of natural UV irradiance varying from no exposure in sediments to full UV exposure of floating, beach litter or air-borne plastics, it is argued that the rates of UV-driven degradation/fragmentation will also vary dramatically between different locations and environmental niches. Biological phenomena such as biofouling will further modulate the exposure of plastics to UV radiation, while potentially also contributing to degradation and/or fragmentation of plastics independent of solar UVR. Reductions in solar UVR in many regions, consequent to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments for protecting stratospheric ozone, will have consequences for global UV-driven plastic degradation in a heterogeneous manner across different geographic and environmental zones. The interacting effects of global warming, stratospheric ozone and UV radiation are projected to increase UV irradiance at the surface in localized areas, mainly because of decreased cloud cover. Given the complexity and uncertainty of future environmental conditions, this currently precludes reliable quantitative predictions of plastic persistence on a global scale.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021.

The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme evaluates effects on the environment and human health that arise from changes in the stratospheric ozone layer and concomitant variations in ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. The current update is based on scientific advances that have accumulated since our last assessment (Photochem and Photobiol Sci 20(1):1-67, 2021). We also discuss how climate change affects stratospheric ozone depletion and ultraviolet radiation, and how stratospheric ozone depletion affects climate change. The resulting interlinking effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change are assessed in terms of air quality, carbon sinks, ecosystems, human health, and natural and synthetic materials. We further highlight potential impacts on the biosphere from extreme climate events that are occurring with increasing frequency as a consequence of climate change. These and other interactive effects are examined with respect to the benefits that the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments are providing to life on Earth by controlling the production of various substances that contribute to both stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2020.

This assessment by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) provides the latest scientific update since our most recent comprehensive assessment (Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, 2019, 18, 595-828). The interactive effects between the stratospheric ozone layer, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and climate change are presented within the framework of the Montreal Protocol and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We address how these global environmental changes affect the atmosphere and air quality; human health; terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; biogeochemical cycles; and materials used in outdoor construction, solar energy technologies, and fabrics. In many cases, there is a growing influence from changes in seasonality and extreme events due to climate change. Additionally, we assess the transmission and environmental effects of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, in the context of linkages with solar UV radiation and the Montreal Protocol.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019.

This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595-828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.

Solar UV radiation in a changing world: roles of cryosphere-land-water-atmosphere interfaces in global biogeochemical cycles.

Global change influences biogeochemical cycles within and between environmental compartments (i.e., the cryosphere, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and the atmosphere). A major effect of global change on carbon cycling is altered exposure of natural organic matter (NOM) to solar radiation, particularly solar UV radiation. In terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, NOM is degraded by UV and visible radiation, resulting in the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and carbon monoxide, as well as a range of products that can be more easily degraded by microbes (photofacilitation). On land, droughts and land-use change can reduce plant cover causing an increase in exposure of plant litter to solar radiation. The altered transport of soil organic matter from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems also can enhance exposure of NOM to solar radiation. An increase in emission of CO2 from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems due to the effects of global warming, such as droughts and thawing of permafrost soils, fuels a positive feedback on global warming. This is also the case for greenhouse gases other than CO2, including methane and nitrous oxide, that are emitted from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These trace gases also have indirect or direct impacts on stratospheric ozone concentrations. The interactive effects of UV radiation and climate change greatly alter the fate of synthetic and biological contaminants. Contaminants are degraded or inactivated by direct and indirect photochemical reactions. The balance between direct and indirect photodegradation or photoinactivation of contaminants is likely to change with future changes in stratospheric ozone, and with changes in runoff of coloured dissolved organic matter due to climate and land-use changes.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2017.

The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels of experts that inform the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. The EEAP focuses on the effects of UV radiation on human health, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, air quality, and materials, as well as on the interactive effects of UV radiation and global climate change. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously held. Because of the Montreal Protocol, there are now indications of the beginnings of a recovery of stratospheric ozone, although the time required to reach levels like those before the 1960s is still uncertain, particularly as the effects of stratospheric ozone on climate change and vice versa, are not yet fully understood. Some regions will likely receive enhanced levels of UV radiation, while other areas will likely experience a reduction in UV radiation as ozone- and climate-driven changes affect the amounts of UV radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces detailed Quadrennial Reports every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Update Reports of recent and relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2016 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2017, 16, 107-145). The present 2017 Update Report assesses some of the highlights and new insights about the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. A full 2018 Quadrennial Assessment, will be made available in 2018/2019.

Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects, they could accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO(2) increase and subsequent climate change beyond current predictions. The effects of predicted changes in climate and solar UV radiation on carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to vary significantly between regions. The balance of positive and negative effects on terrestrial carbon cycling remains uncertain, but the interactions between UV radiation and climate change are likely to contribute to decreasing sink strength in many oceanic regions. Interactions between climate and solar UV radiation will affect cycling of elements other than carbon, and so will influence the concentration of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases. For example, increases in oxygen-deficient regions of the ocean caused by climate change are projected to enhance the emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas. Future changes in UV-induced transformations of aquatic and terrestrial contaminants could have both beneficial and adverse effects. Taken in total, it is clear that the future changes in UV radiation coupled with human-caused global change will have large impacts on biogeochemical cycles at local, regional and global scales.

Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling.

This report assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are often linked to concurrent exposure to UV-A radiation (315-400 nm), which is influenced by global climate change. These interactions involving UV radiation (the combination of UV-B and UV-A) are central to the prediction and evaluation of future Earth environmental conditions. There is increasing evidence that elevated UV-B radiation has significant effects on the terrestrial biosphere with implications for the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. The cycling of carbon and inorganic nutrients such as nitrogen can be affected by UV-B-mediated changes in communities of soil organisms, probably due to the effects of UV-B radiation on plant root exudation and/or the chemistry of dead plant material falling to the soil. In arid environments direct photodegradation can play a major role in the decay of plant litter, and UV-B radiation is responsible for a significant part of this photodegradation. UV-B radiation strongly influences aquatic carbon, nitrogen, sulfur and metals cycling that affect a wide range of life processes. UV-B radiation changes the biological availability of dissolved organic matter to microorganisms, and accelerates its transformation into dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrogen, including carbon dioxide and ammonium. The coloured part of dissolved organic matter (CDOM) controls the penetration of UV radiation into water bodies, but CDOM is also photodegraded by solar UV radiation. Changes in CDOM influence the penetration of UV radiation into water bodies with major consequences for aquatic biogeochemical processes. Changes in aquatic primary productivity and decomposition due to climate-related changes in circulation and nutrient supply occur concurrently with exposure to increased UV-B radiation, and have synergistic effects on the penetration of light into aquatic ecosystems. Future changes in climate will enhance stratification of lakes and the ocean, which will intensify photodegradation of CDOM by UV radiation. The resultant increase in the transparency of water bodies may increase UV-B effects on aquatic biogeochemistry in the surface layer. Changing solar UV radiation and climate also interact to influence exchanges of trace gases, such as halocarbons (e.g., methyl bromide) which influence ozone depletion, and sulfur gases (e.g., dimethylsulfide) that oxidize to produce sulfate aerosols that cool the marine atmosphere. UV radiation affects the biological availability of iron, copper and other trace metals in aquatic environments thus potentially affecting metal toxicity and the growth of phytoplankton and other microorganisms that are involved in carbon and nitrogen cycling. Future changes in ecosystem distribution due to alterations in the physical and chemical climate interact with ozone-modulated changes in UV-B radiation. These interactions between the effects of climate change and UV-B radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic systems may partially offset the beneficial effects of an ozone recovery.

Small bowel obstruction in rats: diagnostic accuracy of sonography versus radiography.

Our purposes were to determine whether sonography can distinguish between obstructed and nonobstructed rats and to compare the diagnostic accuracy of sonography and radiography in the diagnosis of small bowel obstruction. Nonstrangulating small bowel obstruction was created in 19 rats; sham laparotomies were performed in 18 controls. Serial radiographs and sonograms, including duplex Doppler sonography, were obtained. Bowel diameter and bowel wall thickness were evaluated retrospectively. Bowel diameter, bowel wall thickness, and resistive indices increased in the animals with obstruction; controls remained unchanged (P = 0.002). Sonography demonstrated a significantly higher diagnostic accuracy than radiography at 24 hours and beyond (P = 0.023). Ultrasonography is sensitive and more accurate than radiography in diagnosing small bowel obstruction using objective criteria in the animal model.

The postoperative lumbar spine: evaluation of epidural scar over a 1-year period.

PURPOSE: We documented the morphological changes on enhanced MR imaging studies that occur in epidural scar over a period of 1 year after lumbar diskectomy. METHODS: The study population was culled from a randomized, multicenter clinical trial designed to evaluate the efficacy of a device inhibiting postoperative epidural fibrosis after single-level, unilateral laminectomy/diskectomy for herniated lumbar disk. Analysis was restricted to 71 control subjects who did not receive the device. All patients underwent surgery after receiving clinical and MR examinations, with follow-up MR studies at 6 and 12 months. Evaluation of all MR images was performed by one interpreter, who was blinded to treatment arm and clinical findings. The extent of epidural scar seen at the 6- and 12-month MR examinations was graded on a scale of 0 to 4 for each quadrant at each imaging section encompassing the surgical level. RESULTS: Eighty-five percent of the patients had no change in the amount of anterior epidural scar between the 6- and 12-month MR examinations; 75% of the patients showed no change in the amount of posterior epidural scar between the 6- and 12-month examinations. CONCLUSION: The majority of our patients had no change in the amount of epidural scarring visible at enhanced MR imaging over a 1-year period after lumbar laminectomy/diskectomy.

Digital storage of echocardiograms offers superior image quality to analog storage, even with 20:1 digital compression: results of the Digital Echo Record Access Study.

A large interobserver and intraobserver variability study was performed comparing both digitally compressed and uncompressed echocardiographic images with the same images recorded onto super-VHS video-cassette tape (the current standard). In a blinded, randomized fashion, 179 observers scored the diagnostic and image quality of 20 pairs of echocardiographic loops representing various pathologic conditions. Overall, the digital images were preferred to the S-VHS images both for image quality and diagnostic content (p < 0.0001) regardless of the background or experience level of the observer. Furthermore, uncompressed digital images and those compressed by the Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) algorithm at ratios of 20:1 were judged equivalent. These findings show that digital compression may be used routinely in echocardiography, resulting in improved image and diagnostic quality over present standards.

Power injection of intravenous contrast material through central venous catheters for CT: in vitro evaluation.

PURPOSE: To determine the feasibility of use of a power injector to deliver contrast material through central venous catheters for computed tomographic (CT) examinations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ioversol 240 and iothalamate meglumine 43% were separately injected through three 9.6-F Hickman catheters and three 10.0-F Leonard catheters with a power injector in an in vitro study. Flow rates of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 mL/sec were tested. Peak pressures were mechanically recorded from two sites. A 95% prediction interval was calculated for each peak pressure, and the upper limits at the prediction interval were evaluated to determine if it was less than the recommended limit of 25 psi (175 kPa). RESULTS: Contrast medium, flow rate, and catheter type each statistically significantly affected the measured peak pressures (P = .0001). For each flow rate tested, the upper limits of the prediction interval for the peak pressure at the connection between the coiled tubing and the catheter were below the manufacturer's specified peak pressure. CONCLUSION: In vitro analysis demonstrates that power injection of intravenous contrast medium through central venous catheters does not exceed the pressure limits of these catheters at the flow rates tested. In vivo testing to evaluate the safety and efficacy of power injection through central venous catheters is necessary.

Simple steps for improving multiple-reader studies in radiology.

Multiple-reader study designs have become popular in the radiology literature. We reviewed the major papers published in the American Journal of Roentgenology in the first 4 months of each of the years 1990 and 1995. The review was restricted to prospective studies of image interpretation. In the 1990 literature, we noted eight multiple-reader and 18 single-reader studies; in contrast, in the 1995 literature, we found 29 multiple-reader and eight single-reader studies. This trend reflects an increased awareness of the importance of multiple-reader studies. We examined the Results sections of the 29 multiple-reader studies from 1995 to assess the authors' motives for incorporating such a design. In 16 studies (55%), readers independently interpreted all images. However, the authors usually reported only the average interpretation of the readers; in only seven of the 29 studies (24%) did the authors describe differences among readers' interpretations. In 13 studies, interpretations were performed exclusively through "consensus reading." The method(s) used to achieve a consensus often were not explained. Only two of the 29 studies had more than three readers. In contrast, all of these studies included multiple patients. The average patient sample size was 45. Furthermore, differences observed among patients were routinely reported and/or depicted.

The postoperative lumbar spine: enhanced MR evaluation of the intervertebral disk.

PURPOSE: To document the pattern of enhancement and morphologic changes on MR images that occur in the intervertebral disk and adjacent vertebral bodies after diskectomy and to correlate the presence of intervertebral disk enhancement with the preoperative and postoperative clinical findings. METHODS: Preoperatively, and at 3 months and 6 months after surgery, 94 adults who had first-time surgery for a herniated lumbar intervertebral disk that was associated with radiculopathy, expressed as leg symptoms or signs (with or without lower back pain), were asked to respond to a questionnaire regarding pain, were given serial physical examinations, and were examined with contrast-enhanced MR imaging. The measures of clinical outcome that were evaluated included the straight leg raise sign, radicular pain, and lower back pain. Type of disk herniation, intervertebral disk enhancement, disk space height, and degenerative end-plate changes were also assessed. RESULTS: Of the 94 patients evaluated, 19 (20%) had postoperative intervertebral disk enhancement that was not present on the preoperative study. The pattern of enhancement was remarkably consistent, with 18 of the cases showing linear enhancement within the intervertebral disk, manifested as two thin bands paralleling the end plates. End-plate enhancement was present in 7 (37%) of the 19 patients with disk enhancement. There were no significant associations between disk enhancement and specific clinical symptoms before or after surgery. CONCLUSION: Our group of asymptomatic postoperative patients had anular enhancement (curette site), disk enhancement, and vertebral end-plate enhancement on MR images without evidence of disk space infection. This finding points out the need to understand asymptomatic postoperative changes that are sequelae of surgery and not necessarily indicators of infection.

The safety and effectiveness of brain arteriovenous malformation embolization using acrylic and particles: the experiences of a single institution.

The purpose of this article is to report on the safety and effectiveness of brain arteriovenous malformation (AVM) embolization for two series of patients, of which one was treated with particulate embolization and the other with acrylic embolization. Sixty-five consecutive patients from embolization logs and patient records from 1988 to 1993 were reviewed. AVMs were routinely treated with particulate embolization early in the review (1988-1991), and after a transition period, the technique was changed to acrylic embolization for the remainder of the study period (1992-1993). All patients were treated with the ultimate goal of complete AVM obliteration. AVMs were embolized and resected, if possible, and if unresectable, they were reduced in size with embolization and radiated. The course of treatment for each patient was reviewed. The effectiveness at the end of treatment was analyzed for the ability to resect the AVM and, if unresectable, the ability to reduce the AVM to radiation size. Additionally, the safety of each embolization technique was evaluated in the context of comprehensive care, in terms of the safety of the procedure itself, the surgical resection after embolization, and the outcome at the end of comprehensive treatment. This article outlines the safety and effectiveness of acrylic and particulate embolization at a single institution. The ability to surgically resect an AVM after embolization and to reduce nidus size with acrylic was at least comparable with that with particulate embolization. Comprehensive complication rates were lower after acrylic embolization and were heavily influenced by a decreased number of surgical complications in the acrylic series. These data support the need to conduct a randomized prospective clinical trial to compare the relative safety and effectiveness of the two methods of embolization.

Ovarian carcinoma: value of CT in predicting success of debulking surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Initial therapy for metastatic epithelial ovarian adenocarcinoma involves aggressive surgery to remove as much tumor as possible. However, this procedure is not beneficial for patients unless tumor implants can be reduced to less than 2 cm in diameter. This study was performed to determine whether CT can be used to predict the success of debulking surgery and thereby spare some patients from an unnecessary operation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Preoperative CT scans of 28 women who underwent primary surgery for ovarian carcinoma were retrospectively reviewed (18 patients had extrapelvic [stage III or IV] disease at surgery). Five regions were analyzed for evidence and extent of metastatic disease (omentum, liver, small bowel mesentery, paraaortic nodes, and diaphragm), and a score of 0-2 (see below) was assigned to each. These scores were added together for a total score of 0-10, which was compared with the surgical results. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to assess the ability of the scoring system to predict which patients would benefit from tumor debulking. Patient age, serum CA-125 level, and amount of ascites were also examined. RESULTS: On a 10-point preoperative CT scoring system, a score of 3 or higher identified patients whose tumors were not successfully debulked with a sensitivity of 58% (7/12) and a specificity of 100% (16/16). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this system was 0.94. The use of additional parameters, such as extent of ascites, serum CA-125 level, or age, did not improve accuracy. CONCLUSION: Our results show that CT can be used to predict the success of primary debulking surgery in women with metastatic ovarian carcinoma. A significant number of patients in whom the surgery will have no benefit can be identified.