Younger ages at risk of Covid-19 mortality in communities of color.

More than 85% of Covid-19 mortality in high income countries is among people 65 years of age or older. Recent disaggregated data from the UK and US show that minority communities have increased mortality among younger age groups and in South Africa initial data suggest that the majority of deaths from Covid-19 are under 65 years of age. These observations suggest significant potential for increased Covid-19 mortality among younger populations in Africa and South Asia and may impact age-based selection of high-risk groups eligible for a future vaccine.

Health system modelling research: towards a whole-health-system perspective for identifying good value for money investments in health system strengthening.

Global health research has typically focused on single diseases, and most economic evaluation research to date has analysed technical health interventions to identify 'best buys'. New approaches in the conduct of economic evaluations are needed to help policymakers in choosing what may be good value (ie, greater health, distribution of health, or financial risk protection) for money (ie, per budget expenditure) investments for health system strengthening (HSS) that tend to be programmatic. We posit that these economic evaluations of HSS interventions will require developing new analytic models of health systems which recognise the dynamic connections between the different components of the health system, characterise the type and interlinks of the system's delivery platforms; and acknowledge the multiple constraints both within and outside the health sector which limit the system's capacity to efficiently attain its objectives. We describe priority health system modelling research areas to conduct economic evaluation of HSS interventions and ultimately identify good value for money investments in HSS.

Breakthrough tuberculosis disease among people with HIV - Should we be worried? A retrospective longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) is a proven means to prevent tuberculosis (TB) disease among people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, there is a concern that patients often develop tuberculosis disease while receiving IPT, defined here as breakthrough tuberculosis, which may affect treatment outcome. In this study, we assessed the magnitude and determinants of breakthrough tuberculosis. METHODS: A multisite retrospective longitudinal study from the year 2005 to 2014 involving 11 randomly selected hospitals from the Addis Ababa, SNNPR (Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region), and Gambela regions of Ethiopia was carried out to assess the occurrence of breakthrough tuberculosis. Cox regression analysis was used to study factors associated with breakthrough TB. RESULTS: 4,484 patients in chronic HIV care received IPT. Eighty percent of the same number received antiretroviral therapy (ART). Tuberculosis developed in 88 of 4,484 (2%) patients of which 24 (0.5%) were diagnosed while receiving IPT. Breakthrough TB incidence was 1106 per 100,000 person-years (PY) (95% CI: 742-1651) while TB incidence after completing IPT was 624 per 100,000 PY (95% CI: 488-797). Seven of the 24 (29%) breakthrough TB cases were diagnosed within the first month of IPT initiation. Of 15 patients who developed breakthrough TB while on ART, nine (60%) were diagnosed within the first six months of ART initiation. Having high CD4 cell count and being on ART were associated with having lower risk of developing TB and breakthrough TB. CONCLUSION: Breakthrough TB was uncommon in the study setting. Even then, taking ART reduced the risk of its occurrence. Slightly more than a quarter of the cases of breakthrough TB occurred in the first month of treatment and may be existing undiagnosed TB cases which were missed during diagnostic work-up.

Establishing a Multicenter Longitudinal Clinical Cohort Study in Ethiopia: Advanced Clinical Monitoring of Antiretroviral Treatment Project.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this paper is to describe the establishment of the Advanced Clinical Monitoring of ART Project in Ethiopia for monitoring and evaluation of the longitudinal effectiveness of the ART program and to show the opportunities it presents. This cohort was established in response to the 2005 call by WHO for establishing additional mechanisms for stronger monitoring of ART and the need for creating the platform to generate evidence to guide the care given for the ever increasing number of patients on ART in Ethiopia. METHOD: A participatory and multi-stage process which started from a consensus building workshop and steered by a mother protocol as well as guiding documents which dictated the degree of engagement and expectations was followed. The primary and secondary aims of the study were agreed upon. A multi-site longitudinal observational clinical cohort was established by a consortium of stakeholders including seven Ethiopian medical schools and their affiliated referral hospitals, John Hopkins University, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Ministry of Science and Technology, US Centers for Disease Prevention and Control - CDC-Ethiopia, and the Federal Ministry of Health. Adult and adolescent cohorts covering the age range of 14+ years) and pediatric cohorts covering those below age 14 years were the two main cohorts. During the initial recruitment of these cohorts information was extracted from existing documents for a total of 2,100 adult participants. In parallel, a prospective cohort of 1,400 adult and adolescent patients were enrolled for ART initiation and follow-up. Using similar recruitment procedures, a total of 120 children were enrolled in each of retrospective and prospective cohorts. Replacement of participants were made in subsequent years based on lost follow up and death rates to maintain adequacy of the sample to be followed-up. ACHIEVEMENTS: Between January 2005 and August 2013 a total of 4,339 patients were followed for a median of 41.6 months and data on demographic characteristics, baseline and ongoing clinical features, hospitalization history, medication and laboratory information were collected. 39,762 aliquots and 25,515 specimens of plasma and dryblood-spots respectively were obtained and stored longitudinally from October 2009 to August 2013. The project created a research platform for researchers, policy and decision makers. Moreover, it encouraged local and international investigators to identify and answer clinically and programmatically relevant research questions using the available data and specimens. Calls for concept notes paired with multiple trainings to stimulate investigators to conduct analyses further boosted the potential for doing research. CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive and resourceful mechanism for scientific inquiry was established to support the national HIV/ART program. With meaningful involvement and defined roles, establishment of a study, which involved multiple institutions and investigators, was possible. Since ACM is the largest multi-site clinical cohort of patients on antiretroviral treatment in Ethiopia-which can be used for research and for improving clinical management-considering options to sustain the project is crucial.

Beneficial effect of isoniazid preventive therapy and antiretroviral therapy on the incidence of tuberculosis in people living with HIV in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: IPT with or without concomitant administration of ART is a proven intervention to prevent tuberculosis among PLHIV. However, there are few data on the routine implementation of this intervention and its effectiveness in settings with limited resources. OBJECTIVES: To measure the level of uptake and effectiveness of IPT in reducing tuberculosis incidence in a cohort of PLHIV enrolled into HIV care between 2007 and 2010 in five hospitals in southern Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis of electronic patient database was done. The independent effects of no intervention, "IPT-only," "IPT-before-ART," "IPT-and-ART started simultaneously," "ART-only," and "IPT-after-ART" on TB incidence were measured. Cox-proportional hazards regression was used to assess association of treatment categories with TB incidence. RESULTS: Of 7,097 patients, 867 were excluded because they were transferred-in; a further 823 (12%) were excluded from the study because they were either identified to have TB through screening (292 patients) or were on TB treatment (531). Among the remaining 5,407 patients observed, IPT had been initiated for 39% of eligible patients. Children, male sex, advanced disease, and those in Pre-ART were less likely to be initiated on IPT. The overall TB incidence was 2.6 per 100 person-years. As compared to those with no intervention, use of "IPT-only" (aHR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.19-0.66) and "ART-only" (aHR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.24-0.43) were associated with significant reduction in TB incidence rate. Combining ART and IPT had a more profound effect. Starting IPT-before-ART (aHR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.08-0.42) or simultaneously with ART (aHR = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.10-0.42) provided further reduction of TB at ∼ 80%. CONCLUSIONS: IPT was found to be effective in reducing TB incidence, independently and with concomitant ART, under programme conditions in resource-limited settings. The level of IPT provision and effectiveness in reducing TB was encouraging in the study setting. Scaling up and strengthening IPT service in addition to ART can have beneficial effect in reducing TB burden among PLHIV in settings with high TB/HIV burden.

Field expansion of DNA polymerase chain reaction for early infant diagnosis of HIV-1: The Ethiopian experience.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of infants infected with HIV (EID) and early initiation of treatment significantly reduces the rate of disease progression and mortality. One of the challenges to identification of HIV-1-infected infants is availability and/or access to quality molecular laboratory facilities which perform molecular virologic assays suitable for accurate identification of the HIV status of infants. METHOD: We conducted a joint site assessment and designed laboratories for the expansion of DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing based on dried blood spot (DBS) for EID in six regions of Ethiopia. Training of appropriate laboratory technologists and development of required documentation including standard operating procedures (SOPs) was carried out. The impact of the expansion of EID laboratories was assessed by the number of tests performed as well as the turn-around time. RESULTS: DNA PCR for EID was introduced in 2008 in six regions. From April 2006 to April 2008, a total of 2848 infants had been tested centrally at the Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute (EHNRI) in Addis Ababa, and which was then the only laboratory with the capability to perform EID; 546 (19.2%) of the samples were positive. By November 2010, EHNRI and the six laboratories had tested an additional 16 985 HIV-exposed infants, of which 1915 (11.3%) were positive. The median turn-around time for test results was 14 days (range 14-21 days). CONCLUSION: Expansion of HIV DNA PCR testing facilities that can provide quality and reliable results is feasible in resource-limited settings. Regular supervision and monitoring for quality assurance of these laboratories is essential to maintain accuracy of testing.