Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event.

Attribution of compound events informs preparedness for emerging hazards with disproportionate impacts. However, the task remains challenging because space-time interactions among extremes and uncertain dynamic changes are not satisfactorily addressed in the well-established attribution framework. For attributing the 2020 record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event in China, we conduct a storyline attribution analysis by designing simulation experiments via a weather forecast model, quantifying component-based attributable changes, and comparing with historical flow analogs. We quantify that given the large-scale circulation, anthropogenic influence to date has exacerbated the extreme Mei-yu rainfall in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during June-July 2020 by ~6.5% and warmed the co-occurring seasonal extreme heat in South China by ~1°C. Our projections show a further intensification of the compound event by the end of this century, with moderate emissions making the rainfall totals ~14% larger and the season ~2.1°C warmer in South China than the 2020 status.

Methane Emissions from Wetlands in China and Their Climate Feedbacks in the 21st Century.

Wetlands are large sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2) and sources of methane (CH4). Both fluxes can be altered by wetland management (e.g., restoration), leading to changes in the climate system. Here, we use multiple models to assess CH4 emissions and CO2 sequestration from the wetlands in China and the impacts on climate under three climate scenarios and four wetland management scenarios with various levels of wetland restoration in the 21st century. We find that wetland restoration leads to increased CH4 emissions with a national total of 0.32-11.31 Tg yr-1. These emissions induce an additional radiative forcing of 0.0005-0.0075 W m-2 yr-1 and global annual mean air temperature rise of 0.0003-0.0053 °C yr-1, across all future climate and management scenarios. However, wetland restoration also resulted in net CO2 sequestration, leading to a combined net greenhouse gas sink in all climate management scenarios, except in the highest restoration level combined with the hottest climate scenario. The highest climate cooling was achieved under medium restoration, with the climate scenario consistent with the Paris agreement target of below 2 °C, with a cumulative global warming potential of -3.2 Pg CO2-eq (2020-2100). Wetland restoration in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau offers the greatest cooling effect.

Understanding human influence on climate change in China.

China's climate has been warming since the 1950s, with surface air temperature increasing at a rate higher than the global average. Changes in climate have exerted substantial impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems and human health. Attributing past changes to causes provides a scientific foundation for national and international climate policies. Here, we review recent progress in attributing the observed climate changes over past decades in China. Anthropogenic forcings, dominated by greenhouse gas emissions, are the main drivers for observed increases in mean and extreme temperatures. Evidence of the effect of anthropogenic forcings on precipitation is emerging. Human influence has increased the probability of extreme heat events, and has likely changed the occurrence probabilities for some heavy precipitation events. The way a specific attribution question is posed and the conditions under which the question is addressed present persistent challenges for appropriately communicating attribution results to non-specialists.

From concept to action: a united, holistic and One Health approach to respond to the climate change crisis.

It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the planet, which is seriously affecting the planetary health including human health. Adapting climate change should not only be a slogan, but requires a united, holistic action and a paradigm shift from crisis response to an ambitious and integrated approach immediately. Recognizing the urgent needs to tackle the risk connection between climate change and One Health, the four key messages and recommendations that with the intent to guide further research and to promote international cooperation to achieve a more climate-resilient world are provided.

Intercomparison of global terrestrial carbon fluxes estimated by MODIS and Earth system models.

Earth system models (ESMs) have been widely used to simulate global terrestrial carbon fluxes, including gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP). Assessment of such GPP and NPP products can be valuable for understanding the efficacy of certain ESMs in simulating the global carbon cycle and future climate impacts. In this work, we studied the model performance of 22 ESMs participating in the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) by comparing historical GPP and NPP simulations with satellite data from MODIS and further evaluating potential model improvement from CMIP5 to CMIP6. In CMIP6, the average global total GPP and NPP estimated by the 22 ESMs are 16% and 13% higher than MODIS data, respectively. The multi-model ensembles (MME) of the 22 ESMs can fairly reproduce the spatial distribution, zonal distribution and seasonal variations of both GPP and NPP from MODIS. They perform much better in simulating GPP and NPP for grasslands, wetlands, croplands and other biomes than forests. However, there are noticeable differences among individual ESM simulations in terms of overall fluxes, temporal and spatial flux distributions, and fluxes by biome and region. The MME consistently outperforms all individual models in nearly every respect. Even though several ESMs have been improved in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5, there is still much work to be done to improve individual ESM and overall CMIP performance. Future work needs to focus on more comprehensive model mechanisms and parametrizations, higher resolution and more reasonable coupling of land surface schemes and atmospheric/oceanic schemes.

More frequent and widespread persistent compound drought and heat event observed in China.

Compound drought and heat event (CDHE) causes severe impacts on agriculture, ecosystem, and human health. Based on daily maximum surface air temperature and meteorological drought composite index data in China, changing features of CDHEs in warm season from 1961 to 2018 is explored at a daily time scale based on a strict and objective definition in this study. Results reveal that CDHEs have occurred more frequently and widely in China, especially since the late 1990s. Notably, such changes are more obvious in Southwest China, eastern Northwest China, northern North China, and the coastal area of southeastern China. A prominent feature is that persistent CDHEs on a daily scale have increased significantly. To better understand climate change of compound extreme events, further studies on the physical mechanism, especially attribution analyses at a regional scale, are urgently needed.

Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes.

Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound hot extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past and future changes in compound hot extremes as well as their underlying drivers and societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show that during 1960-2012, significant increases in Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade-1) and intensity (~0.28 °C decade-1) of summertime compound hot extremes arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected and largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase in hemispheric-average frequency and a threefold growth in intensity of summertime compound hot extremes by 2100 (relative to 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure to compound hot extremes is projected to be four to eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic and climate scenarios.

Non-Monotonic Aerosol Effect on Precipitation in Convective Clouds over Tropical Oceans.

Aerosol effects on convective clouds and associated precipitation constitute an important open-ended question in climate research. Previous studies have linked an increase in aerosol concentration to a delay in the onset of rain, invigorated clouds and stronger rain rates. Here, using observational data, we show that the aerosol effect on convective clouds shifts from invigoration to suppression with increasing aerosol optical depth. We explain this shift in trend (using a cloud model) as the result of a competition between two types of microphysical processes: cloud-core-based invigorating processes vs. peripheral suppressive processes. We show that the aerosol optical depth value that marks the shift between invigoration and suppression depends on the environmental thermodynamic conditions. These findings can aid in better parameterizing aerosol effects in climate models for the prediction of climate trends.

Trans-Pacific transport of dust aerosols from East Asia: Insights gained from multiple observations and modeling.

East Asia is one of the world's largest sources of dust and anthropogenic pollution. Dust particles originating from East Asia have been recognized to travel across the Pacific to North America and beyond, thereby affecting the radiation incident on the surface as well as clouds aloft in the atmosphere. In this study, integrated analyses are performed focusing on one trans-Pacific dust episode during 12-22 March 2015, based on space-borne, ground-based observations, reanalysis data combined with Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT), and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). From the perspective of synoptic patterns, the location and strength of Aleutian low pressure system largely determined the eastward transport of dust plumes towards western North America. Multi-sensor satellite observations reveal that dust aerosols in this episode originated from the Taklimakan and Gobi Deserts. Moreover, the satellite observations suggest that the dust particles can be transformed to polluted particles over the East Asian regions after encountering high concentration of anthropogenic pollutants. In terms of the vertical distribution of polluted dust particles, at the very beginning, they were mainly located in the altitudes ranging from 1 km to 7 km over the source region, then ascended to 2 km-9 km over the Pacific Ocean. The simulations confirm that these elevated dust particles in the lower free troposphere were largely transported along the prevailing westerly jet stream. Overall, observations and modeling demonstrate how a typical springtime dust episode develops and how the dust particles travel over the North Pacific Ocean all the way to North America.

Impact of diurnal variability and meteorological factors on the PM2.5 - AOD relationship: Implications for PM2.5 remote sensing.

PM2.5 retrieval from space is still challenging due to the elusive relationship between PM2.5 and aerosol optical depth (AOD), which is further complicated by meteorological factors. In this work, we investigated the diurnal cycle of PM2.5 in China, using ground-based PM measurements obtained at 226 sites of China Atmosphere Watch Network during the period of January 2013 to December 2015. Results showed that nearly half of the sites witnessed a PM2.5 maximum in the morning, in contrast to the least frequent occurrence (5%) in the afternoon when strong solar radiation received at the surface results in rapid vertical diffusion of aerosols and thus lower mass concentration. PM2.5 tends to peak equally in the morning and evening in North China Plain (NCP) with an amplitude of nearly twice or three times that in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), whereas the morning PM2.5 peak dominates in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) with a magnitude lying between those of NCP and PRD. The gridded correlation maps reveal varying correlations around each PM2.5 site, depending on the locations and seasons. Concerning the impact of aerosol diurnal variation on the correlation, the averaging schemes of PM2.5 using 3-h, 5-h, and 24-h time windows tend to have larger R biases, compared with the scheme of 1-h time window, indicating diurnal variation of aerosols plays a significant role in the establishment of explicit correlation between PM2.5 and AOD. In addition, high cloud fraction and relative humidity tend to weaken the correlation, regardless of geographical location. Therefore, the impact of meteorology could be one of the most plausible alternatives in explaining the varying R values observed, due to its non-negligible effect on MODIS AOD retrievals. Our findings have implications for PM2.5 remote sensing, as long as the aerosol diurnal cycle, along with meteorology, are explicitly considered in the future.