Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change.

Increasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential-a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.

Modelling impact of early vigour on wheat yield in dryland regions.

Early vigour, or faster early leaf area development, has been considered an important trait for rainfed wheat in dryland regions such as Australia. However, early vigour is a genetically complex trait, and results from field experiments have been highly variable. Whether early vigour can lead to improved water use efficiency and crop yields is strongly dependent on climate and management conditions across the entire growing season. Here, we present a modelling framework for simulating the impact of early vigour on wheat growth and yield at eight sites representing the major climate types in Australia. On a typical soil with plant available water capacity (PAWC) of 147 mm, simulated yield increase with early vigour associated with larger seed size was on average 4% higher compared with normal vigour wheat. Early vigour through selection of doubled early leaf sizes could increase yield by 16%. Increase in yield was mainly from increase in biomass and grain number, and was reduced at sites with seasonal rainfall plus initial soil water <300 mm. Opportunities exists for development of early vigour wheat varieties for wetter sites. Soil PAWC could play a significant role in delivering the benefit of early vigour and would require particular attention.

Improving process-based crop models to better capture genotype×environment×management interactions.

In spite of the increasing expectation for process-based crop modelling to capture genotype (G) by environment (E) by management (M) interactions to support breeding selections, it remains a challenge to use current crop models to accurately predict phenotypes from genotypes or from candidate genes. We use wheat as a target crop and the APSIM farming systems model (Holzworth et al., 2014) as an example to analyse the current status of process-based crop models with a major focus on need to improve simulation of specific eco-physiological processes and their linkage to underlying genetic controls. For challenging production environments in Australia, we examine the potential opportunities to capture physiological traits, and to integrate genetic and molecular approaches for future model development and applications. Model improvement will require both reducing the uncertainty in simulating key physiological processes and enhancing the capture of key observable traits and underlying genetic control of key physiological responses to environment. An approach consisting of three interactive stages is outlined to (i) improve modelling of crop physiology, (ii) develop linkage from model parameter to genotypes and further to loci or alleles, and (iii) further link to gene expression pathways. This helps to facilitate the integration of modelling, phenotyping, and functional gene detection and to effectively advance modelling of G×E×M interactions. While gene-based modelling is not always needed to simulate G×E×M, including well-understood gene effects can improve the estimation of genotype effects and prediction of phenotypes. Specific examples are given for enhanced modelling of wheat in the APSIM framework.

Author Correction: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

Nature Plants 3, 17102 (2017); published online 17 July 2017; corrected online 27 September 2017.

Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102.

Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102.

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

Grain Yield and Water Use Efficiency in Extremely-Late Sown Winter Wheat Cultivars under Two Irrigation Regimes in the North China Plain.

Wheat production is threatened by water shortages and groundwater over-draft in the North China Plain (NCP). In recent years, winter wheat has been increasingly sown extremely late in early to mid-November after harvesting cotton or pepper. To improve water use efficiency (WUE) and guide the extremely late sowing practices, a 3-year field experiment was conducted under two irrigation regimes (W1, one-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing; W2, two-irrigation, 75 mm at jointing and 75 mm at anthesis) in 3 cultivars differing in spike size (HS4399, small spike; JM22, medium spike; WM8, large spike). Wheat was sown in early to mid-November at a high seeding rate of 800-850 seeds m(-2). Average yields of 7.42 t ha(-1) and WUE of 1.84 kg m(-3) were achieved with an average seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of 404 mm. Compared with W2, wheat under W1 did not have yield penalty in 2 of 3 years, and had 7.9% lower seasonal ET and 7.5% higher WUE. The higher WUE and stable yield under W1 was associated with higher 1000-grain weight (TGW) and harvest index (HI). Among the 3 cultivars, JM22 had 5.9%-8.9% higher yield and 4.2%-9.3% higher WUE than WM8 and HS4399. The higher yield in JM22 was attributed mainly to higher HI and TGW due to increased post-anthesis biomass and deeper seasonal soil water extraction. In conclusion, one-irrigation with a medium-sized spike cultivar JM22 could be a useful strategy to maintain yield and high WUE in extremely late-sown winter wheat at a high seeding rate in the NCP.