State-level COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Mobility and Policy Data

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWThe importance of pandemic forecast cannot be overemphasized. We propose an interpretable machine learning approach for forecasting pandemic transmission rates by utilizing local mobility statistics and government policies. A calibration step is introduced to deal with time-varying relationships between transmission rates and predictors. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach is able to make accurate two-week ahead predictions of the state-level COVID-19 infection trends in the US. Moreover, the models trained by our approach offer insights into the spread of COVID-19, such as the association between the baseline transmission rate and the state-level demographics, the effectiveness of local policies in reducing COVID-19 infections, and so on. This work provides a good understanding of COVID-19 evolution with respect to state-level characteristics and can potentially inform local policymakers in devising customized response strategies.

Phase I study of injectable, depot naltrexone for the relapse prevention treatment of opioid dependence.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We tested long-acting injectable depot naltrexone for its tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and safety in Phase I. METHODS: The Phase I trial enrolled 36 healthy participants in two panels (A, B). In Panel A, 24 subjects were randomly assigned to the high-dosage group (400 mg naltrexone, n=6; placebo, n=6) or low-dosage group (200 mg naltrexone, n=6; placebo, n=6). In Panel B, 12 subjects were randomized to take six doses of monthly injectable naltrexone (400 mg) or placebo. RESULTS: After a single injection of naltrexone 200 and 400 mg, means (SD) of naltrexone plasma concentrations were .57 (.28) ng/ml and 1.5 (.8) ng/ml 30 days post-injection. There was no effect of accumulation after multiple dosing. Eleven of 30 subjects (36.67%) who were administered injectable depot naltrexone reported a total of 12 adverse events (AEs). Seven of these 11 AEs were coded as possibly related with study medication. All treatment-related AEs were mild in severity. No serious treatment-related AEs occurred. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: This long-acting formulation of injectable depot naltrexone is well tolerated, results in constant plasma concentration of naltrexone for at least 1 month. SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: The tolerability and safety of long-acting injectable depot naltrexone are good.