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Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naive baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance StatementThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.
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Objective To evaluate the effect of goal-directed fluid therapy (GDFT) guided by different goals on endothelial glycocalyx,inflammatory cytokines and postoperative complications in patients undergoing high-risk abdominal surgery.Methods Eighty patients of both sexes,aged 18-64 yr,with body mass index of 18-30 kg/m2,of American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status Ⅰ or Ⅱ,scheduled for elective retroperitoneal tumor resection,were divided into 2 groups (n =40 each) by a random number table method:stroke volume variation (SVV) 9％-14％ group (L group,n=40) and SVV＜9％ group (H group,n =40).SVV 9％-14％ and SVV＜9％ were used as the target and GDFT was performed though combing with cardiac index and mean arterial pressure.The concentrations of syndecan 1,hyaluronic acid,heparan sulfate,tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in serum were determined at 5 min before skin incision (T0),1 h after skin incision (T1),4 h after skin incision (T2) and 24 and 72 h after operation (T3,4).The intraoperative urine volume,blood loss,volume of liquid infused,volume of blood infused,amount of norepinephrine consumed,operation time,extubation time and length of postoperative hospital stay were recorded.Results Compared with the baseline value at T0,the concentrations of syndecan 1,hyaluronic acid,heparan sulfate,TNF-α and IL-6 in serum were significantly increased at T1-4 in H group,and the concentrations of syndecan 1,heparan sulfate,TNF-α and IL-6 in serum at T1-4 and concentrations of hyaluronic acid at T1-3 were significantly increased in L group (P＜0.05).Compared with H group,the volume of liquid infused was significantly reduced,the amount of norepinephrine consumed was increased,the concentrations of syndecan 1,IL-6 and TNF-α in serum were decreased at T1-4,the concentrations of hyaluronic acid were decreased at T2,3,and the concentrations of heparan sulfate were decreased at T1-3 in group L (P＜0.05).Conclusion Compared with GDFT with the target of SVV＜9％,GDFT with the target of SVV 9％-14％ is more helpful in decreasing degradation of endothelial glycocalyx during the perioperative period and in reducing damage to endothelial barrier,and the mechanism may be related to inhibiting inflammatory responses of patients undergoing high-risk abdominal surgery.
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Objective To explore the spatial distribution of measles from 2013 through 2015 in Liaoning province,China and to provide references for measles control and prevention. Methods The GeoDa 1.4. 6 program was used to conduct exploratory spatial data analysis to identify the spatial distribution characteristics and pattern of measles in Liaoning province. Results The frequency analysis showed that the measles epidemic situation appeared to have significant positive skewing within 105 counties of Liaoning province in each year from 2013 through 2015. The global trend analysis indicated a balanced trend in 2013 and 2015,and that the high incidence measles areas were located in the eastern and northern provincial regions in 2014. The global Moran'sⅠwas 0.294 5,0.391 9,and 0.147 7,and general G values were 0.015 9,0.012 0,and 0.013 5,revealing a positive spatial autocorrelation and a high-high aggregation model for each year between 2013 and 2015. The local spatial autocorrelation analysis recognized 5 core areas and 25 hot-spot counties with a high incidence of the measles epidemic,mainly distributed in Shenyang,Fuxin,Tieling,Fushun,Benxi,Liaoyang,Panjin,and Huludao. Conclusion Measles cases were clustered geographically in Liaoning province from 2013 through 2015. Spatial epidemiology methods may offer insights for the epidemiologic study of measles.
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OBJECTIVE:To observe the antiviral effects of Qingre jiedu soft capsule(ADSC)against influenza A H1N1 virus in vivo,and to provide a experimental support for clinical therapy of influenza A H1N1 virus. METHODS:BALB/c mice were ran-domly divided into normal control group,model control group,positive drug high-dose,medium-dose and low-dose groups [oselta-mivir phosphate capsule,0.04,0.02,0.01 g/(kg·d)] and ADSC high-dose,medium-dose and low-dose groups [1.5,0.75,0.375 g/(kg·d)].Except for normal control group,others groups were given influenza A H1N1 virus with titer 1.6×10-5.2 via nasal cavity to induce poisoned mice model;6-8 h after modeling,they were given relevant medicine intragastrically,once a day,for 5 days. After medication,the change of body weight within 7 d were observed in mice;the mortality and death prevention rate within 15 d,mean survival days(MSDs)were calculated in mice.Other mice were selected and grouped,and they were given same drugs as above. 8 h after last medication,lung index and inhibition rate of lung index were determined in mice.RESULTS:In model control group,the body weight of mice decreased significantly since 5th day,and mice death was beginning to occur since 8th day(mortal-ity of 85.7% within 15 d);the lung index was increased significantly compared to normal control group (P<0.01). Both ADSC and oseltamivir phosphate capsule could slow down the decrease of body weight in mice,decreased the mortality and lung index of mice,and prolonged MSDs;the MSDs of mice in ADSC high-dose,positive drug high-dose and medium-dose groups were signifi-cantly higher than model control group(P<0.05),and lung index was significantly lower than model control group except that of ADSC low-dose group(P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS:ADSC has certain antiviral effect against influenza A H1N1 virus in vivo.
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Objective:To enhance the management level of drug emergency inspection. Methods: The emergency inspection of plasticizers was used as the example, and the management in the whole inspection procedures was reviewed to summarize the difficulties and solutions and analyze the management features of drug emergency inspection. Results and Conclusion: There are three keys in successful drug emergency inspection, including correct top-level design, high efficient execution teams and necessary guarantee sys-tems.
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Objective: To research and establish an analysis model for chemical drug standards to provide the reference for the standard exploration jobs. Methods:The standard variation was studied by comparing and analyzing every version standard for the same drug to look for the change rule. Results:The standard items of the drug had some change rules in indicator numbers, testing methods and limits according to the order of issue time. The standard development trends could be described by making specific indicators and drawing evolution figures of the items. Conclusion:By the standard analysis model, the same item of the same drug can be compared to provide the reference for data collecting of experts. Meanwhile, formulate standard can be calculated to provide the reference for the standard improvement without drug standards.
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Objective:To provide a new idea for the management of drug inspection standards. Methods: The current manage-ment mode for drug inspection standards was analyzed and studied, the problems and difficulties were summarized, and then a novel i-dea and method of electronic management was formulated. Results: The electronic management for drug inspection standards could solve the problems encountered in the traditional management effectively and improve the management efficiency. Conclusion: The standard management information system can provide drug inspection standards in time and ensure the effectiveness, which is very help-ful to the drug inspection.
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This article summarizes the methods of making rat cerebral ischemia models and comments the advantages and disadvantages of various methods in order to provide references for the selection of animal models in the basis and appfication research of cerebral ischemia.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>Our study aims to evaluate the antiviral effects of Ouyi antipyretic detoxicate soft capsule against influenza A virus H1N1 in vivo, so as to find an effective Chinese medicinal formulae for the treatment of the virus infection, which may lay a theoretical foundation for clinic treatment of patient infected with Influenza A Virus H1N1.</p><p><b>METHOD</b>With the observation of cytopathic effect (CPE) that induced by virus ,we investigated viral inhibition rate by MTT colorimetric assay and valued antiviral activity of drugs by therapeutic index (TI) . Meanwhile, Oseltamivir phosphate capsule (Tamiflu) was used as positive control , we carried out experiments through the three ways of preventive effect, direct inactivation and propagation inhibition.</p><p><b>RESULT</b>Ouyi antipyretic detoxicate soft capsule could effectively inhibit cytopathic effect (CPE) that induced by Influenza A Virus H1N1. The preventive effect, direct inactivation , and inhibition of endogenous multiplication of Ouyi antipyretic detoxicate soft capsule and Tamiflu against influenza A virus H1N1 were observed. And three types of action therapeutic index (TI) from Ouyi antipyretic detoxicate soft capsule were (15.5 +/- 0.71), (0.55 +/- 0.071), (6.4 +/- 1.27) severally, comparing Tamiflu with (0.4 +/- 0.14), (1.88 +/- 0.29), (4.6 +/- 0.15), respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Ouyi antipyretic detoxicate soft capsule showed more remarkable preventive effect than Tamiflu in vitro (P<0.01). The possible mechanism of the antiviral activity observed in our study might be the protection of the MDCK cells from viral infection by inhibiting the viral absorption. We need a further study to certify three effects in vivo.</p>
