Uncertainty analysis of ecosystem services and implications for environmental management - An experiment in the Heihe River Basin, China.

Integrating the economic values of ecosystem services provided by different land uses into decision analysis is critical to achieving effective environmental management in endorheic basins. However, policymaking often ignores the uncertainty related to the variability of parameters in ecosystem service values. To this end, we identified sensitive parameters in the ecosystem service values under four land uses using the global sensitivity analysis method and quantified the potential monetary outcomes based on the Monte Carlo method. The results indicated that only a few sensitive parameters, such as water yield (Qi) and treatment costs per unit of nitrogen (Cost_N), were the primary sources of uncertainty. Therefore, we suggest that improving the precision of sensitive parameters is essential for reducing uncertainty in the total ecosystem service value. Additionally, the overall monetary outcomes for cropland exhibited negative values and had higher risk and lower benefits than those for forest from the standpoint of ecosystem services. In addition, the nonmarketed service of landscape aesthetic made the monetary outcomes of water bodies higher than those of cropland, yet the value of landscape aesthetic was highly uncertain. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve total monetary outcomes by decreasing the negative values in food provisioning of cropland and the uncertainty in landscape aesthetic for water bodies. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis provide important guidelines for quantifying and reducing the related uncertainty and provide policy information for environmental management based on a comprehensive consideration of the potential ecosystem service values for various land uses.

[Development mechanism of concentrated poverty areas under the sustainable livelihood: The example of the development-restricted ecological district of Ningxia, Northwest China].

Livelihood capital has a close relationship with the income and expenditure of farmers' households. For example, the survival strategies of farmers' households are determined by it and it also influences regional development mechanisms and models. Under the analysis framework of sustainable livelihoods, this study evaluated farmers' livelihood capital, income, and expenditure, based on a participatory rural appraisal and a statistical method, in the development-restricted ecological district of Ningxia, decomposed into the nationality, terrain, and type of farmers' household. Further, by using an index of non-farm business households, the correlations between the livelihood capital and income with the expenditure of farmers' households and the index of non-farm business households were quantified to understand the mechanism of regional development. The results showed that livelihood capital was generally low in the study area. In particular, the livelihood capital of Hui nationality households was slightly higher than that of Han nationality households, that of river valley households was higher than that of mountain households, and that of combined occupation households and non-farm business households was significantly higher than that of agricultural households. Moreover, there was a significant positive correlation between the net annual income of farmers' households and the non-agricultural index, human capital, physical capital, and financial capital, while a significant negative correlation existed between net annual income and natural capital. These findings suggested that efforts were required to enhance the capacity of the non-agricultural index and the human, material, and other capital in the study area. They also served as a guideline for the circulation of peasants' means of production in order to accelerate the polarization of natural capital.