Risk prediction of heart failure in patients with ischemic heart disease using network analytics and stacking ensemble learning.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a major complication following ischemic heart disease (IHD) and it adversely affects the outcome. Early prediction of HF risk in patients with IHD is beneficial for timely intervention and for reducing disease burden. METHODS: Two cohorts, cases for patients first diagnosed with IHD and then with HF (N = 11,862) and control IHD patients without HF (N = 25,652), were established from the hospital discharge records in Sichuan, China during 2015-2019. Directed personal disease network (PDN) was constructed for each patient, and then these PDNs were merged to generate the baseline disease network (BDN) for the two cohorts, respectively, which identifies the health trajectories of patients and the complex progression patterns. The differences between the BDNs of the two cohort was represented as disease-specific network (DSN). Three novel network features were exacted from PDN and DSN to represent the similarity of disease patterns and specificity trends from IHD to HF. A stacking-based ensemble model DXLR was proposed to predict HF risk in IHD patients using the novel network features and basic demographic features (i.e., age and sex). The Shapley Addictive exPlanations method was applied to analyze the feature importance of the DXLR model. RESULTS: Compared with the six traditional machine learning models, our DXLR model exhibited the highest AUC (0.934 ± 0.004), accuracy (0.857 ± 0.007), precision (0.723 ± 0.014), recall (0.892 ± 0.012) and F1 score (0.798 ± 0.010). The feature importance showed that the novel network features ranked as the top three features, playing a notable role in predicting HF risk of IHD patient. The feature comparison experiment also indicated that our novel network features were superior to those proposed by the state-of-the-art study in improving the performance of the prediction model, with an increase in AUC by 19.9%, in accuracy by 18.7%, in precision by 30.7%, in recall by 37.4%, and in F1 score by 33.7%. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed approach that combines network analytics and ensemble learning effectively predicts HF risk in patients with IHD. This highlights the potential value of network-based machine learning in disease risk prediction field using administrative data.

Phenotypic Disease Network Analysis to Identify Comorbidity Patterns in Hospitalized Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease Using Large-Scale Administrative Data.

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) exhibits elevated comorbidity. However, few studies have systematically analyzed the comorbid status of IHD patients with respect to the entire spectrum of chronic diseases. This study applied network analysis to provide a complete picture of physical and mental comorbidities in hospitalized patients with IHD using large-scale administrative data. Hospital discharge records from a provincial healthcare database of IHD inpatients (n = 1,035,338) and one-to-one matched controls were included in this retrospective analysis. We constructed the phenotypic disease networks in IHD and control patients and further assessed differences in comorbidity patterns. The community detection method was applied to cluster diagnoses within the comorbidity network. Age- and sex-specific patterns of IHD comorbidities were also analyzed. IHD inpatients showed 50% larger comorbid burden when compared to controls. The IHD comorbidity network consisted of 1941 significant associations between 71 chronic conditions. Notably, the more densely connected comorbidities in IHD patients were not within the highly prevalent ones but the rarely prevalent ones. Two highly interlinked communities were detected in the IHD comorbidity network, where one included hypertension with heart and multi-organ failures, and another included cerebrovascular diseases, cerebrovascular risk factors and anxiety. Males exhibited higher comorbid burden than females, and thus more complex comorbidity relationships were found in males. Sex-specific disease pairs were detected, e.g., 106 and 30 disease pairs separately dominated in males and females. Aging accounts for the majority of comorbid burden, and the complexity of the comorbidity network increased with age. The network-based approach improves our understanding of IHD-related comorbidities and enhances the integrated management of patients with IHD.