Spatial-temporal analysis of malaria and the effect of environmental factors on its incidence in Yongcheng, China, 2006-2010.

BACKGROUND: In 2003, Plasmodium vivax malaria has re-emerged in central eastern China including Yongcheng prefecture, Henan Province, where no case has been reported for eleven years. Our goals were to detect the space-time distribution pattern of malaria and to determine significant environmental variables contributing to malaria incidence in Yongcheng from 2006 to 2010, thus providing scientific basis for further optimizing current malaria surveillance and control programs. METHODS: This study examined the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the risk of malaria and the influencing factors on malaria incidence using geographical information system (GIS) and time series analysis. Univariate analysis was conducted to estimate the crude correlations between malaria incidence and environmental variables, such as mosquito abundance and climatic factors. Multivariate analysis was implemented to construct predictive models to explore the principal environmental determinants on malaria epidemic using a Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) approach. RESULTS: Annual malaria incidence at town-level decreased from the north to south, and monthly incidence at prefecture-level demonstrated a strong seasonal pattern with a peak from July to November. Yearly malaria incidence had a visual spatial association with yearly average temperature. Moreover, the best-fit temporal model (model 2) (QIC = 16.934, P<0.001, R2 = 0.818) indicated that significant factors contributing to malaria incidence were maximum temperature at one month lag, average humidity at one month lag, and malaria incidence of the previous month. CONCLUSIONS: Findings supported the effects of environment factors on malaria incidence and indicated that malaria control targets should vary with intensity of malaria incidence, with more public resource allocated to control the source of infections instead of large scale An. sinensis control when malaria incidence was at a low level, which would benefit for optimizing the malaria surveillance project in China and some other countries with unstable or low malaria transmission.

Vector capacity of Anopheles sinensis in malaria outbreak areas of central China.

BACKGROUND: Both falciparum and vivax malaria were historically prevalent in China with high incidence. With the control efforts, the annual incidence in the whole country has reduced to 0.0001% except in some areas in the southern borders after 2000. Despite this, the re-emergence or outbreak of malaria was unavoidable in central China during 2005-2007. In order to understand the role of the vector in the transmission of malaria during the outbreak period, the vector capacity of An. sinensis in Huanghuai valley of central China was investigated. FINDINGS: The study was undertaken in two sites, namely Huaiyuan county of Anhui province and Yongcheng county of Henan province. In each county, malaria cases were recorded for recent years, and transmission risk factors for each study village including anti-mosquito facilities and total number of livestock were recorded by visiting each household in the study sites. The specimens of mosquitoes were collected in two villages, and population density and species in each study site were recorded after the identification of different species, and the blood-fed mosquitoes were tested by ring precipitation test. Finally, various indicators were calculated to estimate vector capacity or dynamics, including mosquito biting rate (MBR), human blood index (HBI), and the parous rates (M). Finally, the vector capacity, as an important indicator of malaria transmission to predict the potential recurrence of malaria, was estimated and compared in each study site.About 93.0% of 80 households in Huaiyuan and 89.3% of 192 households in Yongcheng had anti-mosquito facilities. No cattle or pigs were found, only less than 10 sheep were found in each study village. A total of 94 and 107 Anopheles spp. mosquitos were captured in two study sites, respectively, and all of An. sinensis were morphologically identified. It was found that mosquito blood-feeding peak was between 9:00 pm and 12:00 pm. Man biting rate of An. sinensis was 6.0957 and 5.8621 (mosquitoes/people/night) estimated by using half-night human bait trap method and full-capture method, respectively. Human blood indexes (HBI) were 0.6667 (6/9) and 0.6429 (18/28), and man-biting habits were 0.2667 and 0.2572 in two sites, respectively. Therefore, the expectation of infective life and vector capacity of An. sinensis was 0.3649-0.4761 and 0.5502-0.7740, respectively, in Huanhuai valley of central China where the outbreak occurred, which is much higher than that in the previous years without malaria outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that vivax malaria outbreak in Huanhuai valley is highly related to the enhancement in vector capacity of An. sinensis for P. vivax, which is attributed to the local residents' habits and the remarkable drop in the number of large livestock leading to disappearance of traditional biological barriers.

Random repeated cross sectional study on breeding site characterization of Anopheles sinensis larvae in distinct villages of Yongcheng City, People's Republic of China.

BACKGROUND: Characterizing the breeding site of Anopheles sinensis is of major importance for the transition from malaria control to elimination in China. However, little information is available especially regarding the characteristics and influencing factors of breeding sites of An. sinensis in Yongcheng City, a representative region of unstable malaria transmission in the Huang-Huai River region of central China. The aims of this study were to determine the breeding site characteristics of An. sinensis and related environmental and physicochemical parameters, to find out which breeding site characteristics could best explain the presence of An. sinensis larvae, and to determine whether the breeding habit of An. sinensis has changed or not. METHODS: Random repeated cross sectional study was undertaken in six villages of the Yongcheng city characterized by different levels of the historical incidence of P. vivax malaria. The potential breeding sites of An. sinensis larvae in each village were examined twice per month both in the household courtyards and the village surroundings. The larval sampling was done by the standard dipping method. Some important breeding site characterizations were recorded and characterized. The anopheline mosquito larvae and emerged adults were identified to the species level morphologically and to sub-species by the ribosomal DNA PCR technique. Chi-square analysis and logistic regression analysis were applied to determine the importance of factors for explaining the presence or absence of An. sinensis larvae. RESULTS: According to the ribosomal DNA PCR assay, all sampled anopheline mosquito larvae and emerged adults belonged to An. sinensis. Only 3 containers that were sampled from the household courtyards were found to contain An. sinensis larvae. There were no differences in the species composition of mosquito larvae among containers that contained water in the household courtyards (P > 0.05). An. sinensis larvae were shown to be present in a total of 60 breeding sites in the village surroundings, this included 8 (13.3%) river fringes, 26 (43.3%) ponds, 23 (38.3%) puddles, and 3 (5.0%) irrigation/drainage ditches. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the breeding site type, water depth, chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen, and sulphate were found to be the key factors determining the presence of An. sinensis larvae. Approximately 94.9% of An. sinensis larvae inhabited relatively large and medium-sized water bodies, with depths between 0.5 m and 1.0 m (73.3%), COD lower than 2 mg/L (75%), ammonia nitrogen lower than 0.4 mg/L (86.7%), and sulphate lower than 150 mg/L (58.3%), respectively. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that the majority of An. sinensis larval breeding sites were relatively large and medium-sized water bodies with depths between 0.5 m and 1.0 m, and containing low levels of COD, ammonia nitrogen, and sulphate, respectively. For effective An. sinensis larval control, the type of breeding site, water depth, COD, ammonia nitrogen, and sulphate should be given higher priority over other factors in areas where it is the primary vector.

The abundance and host-seeking behavior of culicine species (Diptera: Culicidae) and Anopheles sinensis in Yongcheng city, People's Republic of China.

BACKGROUND: The knowledge of mosquito species diversity and the level of anthropophily exhibited by each species in a region are of great importance to the integrated vector control. Culicine species are the primary vectors of Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus and filariasis in China. Anopheles sinensis plays a major role in the maintenance of Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission in China. The goal of this study was to compare the abundance and host-seeking behavior of culicine species and An. sinensis in Yongcheng city, a representative region of P. vivax malaria. Specifically, we wished to determine the relative attractiveness of different animal baits versus human bait to culicine species and An. sinensis. RESULTS: Culex tritaeniorhynchus was the most prevalent mosquito species and An. sinensis was the sole potential vector of P. vivax malaria in Yongcheng city. There were significant differences (P < 0.01) in the abundance of both An. sinensis and Cx. tritaeniorhynchus collected in distinct baited traps. The relative attractiveness of animal versus human bait was similar towards both An. sinensis and Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. The ranking derived from the mean number of mosquitoes per bait indicated that pigs, goats and calves frequently attracted more mosquitoes than the other hosts tested (dogs, humans, and chickens). These trends were similar across all capture nights at three distinct villages. The human blood index (HBI) of female An. sinensis was 2.94% when computed with mixed meals while 3.70% computed with only the single meal. 19:00~21:00 was the primary peak of host-seeking female An. sinensis while 4:00~5:00 was the smaller peak at night. There was significant correlation between the density of female An. sinensis and the average relative humidity (P < 0.05) in Wangshanzhuang village. CONCLUSIONS: Pigs, goats and calves were more attractive to An. sinensis and Cx. tritaeniorhynchus than dogs, humans, and chickens. Female An. sinensis host-seeking activity mainly occurred from 19:00 to 21:00. Thus, we propose that future vector control against An. sinensis and Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the areas along the Huang-Huai River of central China should target the interface of human activity with domestic animals and adopt before human hosts go to bed at night.