Development and Validation of an Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Risk Prediction Model for Rural Chinese: Multicenter Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: There are rare prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) for rural Chinese population. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for ESCC based on a cohort study for the population. METHODS: Data of 115,686 participants were collected from esophageal cancer (EC) early diagnosis and treatment of cancer program as derivation cohort while data of 54,750 participants were collected as validation cohort. Risk factors considered included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol drinking status, body mass index (BMI), tea drinking status, marital status, annual household income, source of drinking water, education level, and diet habit. Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop ESCC prediction model at 5 years. Calibration ability, discrimination ability, and decision curve analysis were analyzed in both derivation and validation cohort. A score model was developed based on prediction model. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-six cases were diagnosed during 556,949.40 person-years follow-up in the derivation cohort while 120 cases from 277,302.70 in the validation cohort. Prediction model included the following variables: age, sex, alcohol drinking status, BMI, tea drinking status, and fresh fruit. The model had good discrimination and calibration performance: R 2, D statistic, and Harrell's C statistic of prediction model were 43.56%, 1.70, and 0.798 in derivation cohort and 45.19%, 1.62, and 0.787 in validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed good coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities while decision curve analysis showed clinical usefulness. The score model was as follows: age (3 for 45-49 years old; 4 for 50-54 years old; 7 for 55-59 years old; 9 for 60-64 years; 10 for 65-69 years), sex (5 for men), BMI (1 for ≤25), alcohol drinking status (2 for alcohol drinkers), tea drinking status (2 for tea drinkers), and fresh fruit (2 for never) and showed good discrimination ability with area under the curve and its 95% confidence interval of 0.792 (0.761,0.822) in the deviation cohort and 0.773 (0.736,0.811) in the validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed great coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated an ESCC prediction model using cohort study with good discrimination and calibration capability which can be used for EC screening for rural Chinese population.

The association between ambient temperature and mortality of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China: a time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 has caused a sizeable global outbreak and has been declared as a public health emergency of international concern. Sufficient evidence shows that temperature has an essential link with respiratory infectious diseases. The objectives of this study were to describe the exposure-response relationship between ambient temperature, including extreme temperatures, and mortality of COVID-19. METHODS: The Poisson distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was constructed to evaluate the non-linear delayed effects of ambient temperature on death, by using the daily new death of COVID-19 and ambient temperature data from January 10 to March 31, 2020, in Wuhan, China. RESULTS: During the period mentioned above, the average daily number of COVID-19 deaths was approximately 45.2. Poisson distributed lag non-linear model showed that there was a non-linear relationship (U-shape) between the effect of ambient temperature and mortality. With confounding factors controlled, the daily cumulative relative death risk decreased by 12.3% (95% CI [3.4, 20.4%]) for every 1.0 °C increase in temperature. Moreover, the delayed effects of the low temperature are acute and short-term, with the most considerable risk occurring in 5-7 days of exposure. The delayed effects of the high temperature appeared quickly, then decrease rapidly, and increased sharply 15 days of exposure, mainly manifested as acute and long-term effects. Sensitivity analysis results demonstrated that the results were robust. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between ambient temperature and COVID-19 mortality was non-linear. There was a negative correlation between the cumulative relative risk of death and temperature. Additionally, exposure to high and low temperatures had divergent impacts on mortality.

A comparative study of international and Chinese public health emergency management from the perspective of knowledge domains mapping.

BACKGROUND: At the end of 2019, the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severely damaged and endangered people's lives. The public health emergency management system in China has played an essential role in handling the response to the outbreak, which has been appreciated by the World Health Organization and some countries. Hence, it is necessary to conduct an overall analysis of the development of the health emergency management system in China. This can provide a reference for scholars to aid in understanding the current situation and to reveal new research topics. METHODS: We collected 2247 international articles from the Web of Science database and 959 Chinese articles from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database. Bibliometric and mapping knowledge domain analysis methods were used in this study for temporal distribution analysis, cooperation network analysis, and co-word network analysis. RESULTS: The first international article in this field was published in 1991, while the first Chinese article was published in 2005. The research institutions producing these studies mainly existed in universities and health organizations. Developed countries and European countries published the most articles overall, while eastern China published the most articles within China. There were 52 burst words for international articles published from 1999-2018 and 18 burst words for Chinese articles published from 2003-2018. International top-ranked articles according to the number of citations appeared in 2005, 2007, 2009, 2014, 2015, and 2016, while the corresponding Chinese articles appeared in 2003, 2004, 2009, and 2011. CONCLUSIONS: There are differences in the regional and economic distribution of international and Chinese cooperation networks. International research is often related to timely issues mainly by focusing on emergency preparedness and monitoring of public health events, while China has focused on public health emergencies and their disposition. International research began on terrorism and bioterrorism, followed by disaster planning and emergency preparedness, epidemics, and infectious diseases. China considered severe acute respiratory syndrome as the starting research background and the legal system construction as the research starting point, which was followed by the mechanism, structure, system, and training abroad for public health emergency management.

Assessing the Survival Benefit of Surgery and Various Types of Radiation Therapy for Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Evidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registries.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the survival benefit of surgery and radiation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after adjusting for patient-specific and tumor-specific factors. METHODS: This study analyzed HCC patients who enrolled in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry between January 2004 and December 2013. Of the 5552 HCC patients, 4597 received surgery and 955 received radiation. Patients who received radiation were further divided into 3 subgroups: 541 who received beam radiation (BR), 197 who received radioactive implants (RI), and 217 who received radioisotopes (RIT). Propensity score weighting analysis derived from generalized boosted models (GBMs) was performed to ensure well-balanced characteristics in all comparison groups. RESULTS: Overall survival rates and HCC-specific survival rates were higher in those receiving surgery compared with those receiving radiotherapy. This was confirmed by Cox proportional hazard regression both before and after inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Before IPTW, the RIT group had a better outcome than the BR group in terms of overall and HCC-specific survival rates, but there was no significant difference between the RI and BR groups. After IPTW, Cox proportional hazard regression demonstrated that both the RIT and RI groups had higher survival rates than the BR group. CONCLUSION: In HCC patients, surgery was associated with higher survival rates compared with radiotherapy while adjusting for other factors. Among those who received radiotherapy, RIT and RI granted survival benefits.