Higher-order Granger reservoir computing: simultaneously achieving scalable complex structures inference and accurate dynamics prediction.

Recently, machine learning methods, including reservoir computing (RC), have been tremendously successful in predicting complex dynamics in many fields. However, a present challenge lies in pushing for the limit of prediction accuracy while maintaining the low complexity of the model. Here, we design a data-driven, model-free framework named higher-order Granger reservoir computing (HoGRC), which owns two major missions: The first is to infer the higher-order structures incorporating the idea of Granger causality with the RC, and, simultaneously, the second is to realize multi-step prediction by feeding the time series and the inferred higher-order information into HoGRC. We demonstrate the efficacy and robustness of the HoGRC using several representative systems, including the classical chaotic systems, the network dynamical systems, and the UK power grid system. In the era of machine learning and complex systems, we anticipate a broad application of the HoGRC framework in structure inference and dynamics prediction.

Tipping Point Detection Using Reservoir Computing.

Detection in high fidelity of tipping points, the emergence of which is often induced by invisible changes in internal structures or/and external interferences, is paramountly beneficial to understanding and predicting complex dynamical systems (CDSs). Detection approaches, which have been fruitfully developed from several perspectives (e.g., statistics, dynamics, and machine learning), have their own advantages but still encounter difficulties in the face of high-dimensional, fluctuating datasets. Here, using the reservoir computing (RC), a recently notable, resource-conserving machine learning method for reconstructing and predicting CDSs, we articulate a model-free framework to accomplish the detection only using the time series observationally recorded from the underlying unknown CDSs. Specifically, we encode the information of the CDS in consecutive time durations of finite length into the weights of the readout layer in an RC, and then we use the learned weights as the dynamical features and establish a mapping from these features to the system's changes. Our designed framework can not only efficiently detect the changing positions of the system but also accurately predict the intensity change as the intensity information is available in the training data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our supervised framework using the dataset produced by representative physical, biological, and real-world systems, showing that our framework outperforms those traditional methods on the short-term data produced by the time-varying or/and noise-perturbed systems. We believe that our framework, on one hand, complements the major functions of the notable RC intelligent machine and, on the other hand, becomes one of the indispensable methods for deciphering complex systems.

Leveraging neural differential equations and adaptive delayed feedback to detect unstable periodic orbits based on irregularly sampled time series.

Detecting unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) based solely on time series is an essential data-driven problem, attracting a great deal of attention and arousing numerous efforts, in nonlinear sciences. Previous efforts and their developed algorithms, though falling into a category of model-free methodology, dealt with the time series mostly with a regular sampling rate. Here, we develop a data-driven and model-free framework for detecting UPOs in chaotic systems using the irregularly sampled time series. This framework articulates the neural differential equations (NDEs), a recently developed and powerful machine learning technique, with the adaptive delayed feedback (ADF) technique. Since the NDEs own the exceptional capability of accurate reconstruction of chaotic systems based on the observational time series with irregular sampling rates, UPOs detection in this scenario could be enhanced by an integration of the NDEs and the ADF technique. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the articulated framework on representative examples.

Detecting unstable periodic orbits based only on time series: When adaptive delayed feedback control meets reservoir computing.

In this article, we focus on a topic of detecting unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) only based on the time series observed from the nonlinear dynamical system whose explicit model is completely unknown a priori. We articulate a data-driven and model-free method which connects a well-known machine learning technique, the reservoir computing, with a widely-used control strategy of nonlinear dynamical systems, the adaptive delayed feedback control. We demonstrate the advantages and effectiveness of the articulated method through detecting and controlling UPOs in representative examples and also show how those configurations of the reservoir computing in our method influence the accuracy of UPOs detection. Additionally and more interestingly, from the viewpoint of synchronization, we analytically and numerically illustrate the effectiveness of the reservoir computing in dynamical systems learning and prediction.

Emergent dynamics of coordinated cells with time delays in a tissue.

In this article, we investigate the emergence of tissue dynamics with time delays of diffusion. Such emergent dynamics, describing the tissue homeostasis, usually correspond to particular tissue functions, which are attracting a tremendous amount of attention from both communities of mathematical modeling and systems biology. Specifically, in addition to the within-cell genome dynamics and the diffusion among the cells, we consider several types of time delays of diffusion present in the coordinated cells. We establish several generalized versions of the "monotonicity condition" (MC), whose traditional version [I. Rajapakse and S. Smale, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 114, 1462-1467 (2017)] guaranteed the stability of the equilibrium in a system of coordinated cells without time delay. Indeed, we find that one generalized MC we establish still guarantees the stability of the time-delayed system's equilibrium, which corresponds to a formation of tissue functions depending primarily on individual genome dynamics but less on interacting structures and time delays of diffusion. We also find that, when the generalized MC is further relaxed, the system is able to sustain periodic oscillations, whose periods are verified to have delicate dependence with the selected time delays. These produced oscillations usually represent realistic behaviors of "alive" cells. We use several representative examples to demonstrate the usefulness of the established analytical conditions to the understanding of the emergent dynamics observed in computational models and in real systems as well.