ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: More than 400 preclinical studies report ≥ 1 compound as cytotoxic to multiple myeloma (MM) cells; however, few of these agents became relevant in the clinic. Thus, the utility of such assays in predicting future clinical value is debatable. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We examined the application of early-phase trial experiences to predict future clinical adoption. We identified 129 drugs explored as single agents in 228 trials involving 7421 patients between 1961 and 2013. RESULTS: All drugs in common use in MM (melphalan, dexamethasone, prednisone, cyclophosphamide, bendamustine, thalidomide, lenalidomide, pomalidomide, bortezomib, carfilzomib, and doxorubicin) demonstrated a best reported response rate of ≥ 22%. Older agents, including teniposide, fotemustine, paclitaxel, and interferon, also appear active by this criterion; however, if mean response rates from all reported trials for an agent are considered, then only drugs with a mean response rate of 15% partial response are in clinical use. CONCLUSION: Our analysis suggests that thresholds of 20% for best or 15% for mean response are highly predictive of future clinical success. Below these thresholds, no drug has yet reached regulatory approval or widespread use in the clinic. Thus, this benchmark provides 1 element of the framework for guiding choice of drugs for late-stage clinical testing.
