Differential effect of China's Zero Markup Drug Policy on provider-induced demand in secondary and tertiary hospitals.

Following the marketization of China's health system in the 1980's, the government allowed public hospitals to markup the price of certain medications by 15% to compensate for reduced revenue from government subsidies. This incentivized clinicians to induce patient demand for drugs which resulted in higher patient out-of-pocket payments, higher overall medical expenditure, and poor health outcomes. In 2009, China introduced the Zero Markup Drug Policy (ZMDP) which eliminated the 15% markup. Using Shanghai as a case study, this paper analyzes emerging and existing evidence about the impact of ZMDP on hospital expenditure and revenue across secondary and tertiary public hospitals. We use data from 150 public hospitals across Shanghai to examine changes in hospital expenditure and revenue for various health services following the implementation of ZMDP. Our analysis suggests that, across both secondary and tertiary hospitals, the implementation of ZMDP reduced expenditure on drugs but increased expenditure on medical services, exams, and tests thereby increasing hospital revenue and keeping inpatient and outpatient costs unchanged. Moreover, our analysis suggests that tertiary facilities increased their revenue at a faster rate than secondary facilities, likely due to their ability to prescribe more advanced and, therefore, more costly procedures. While rigorous experimental designs are needed to confirm these findings, it appears that ZMDP has not reduced instances of medical expenditure provoked by provider-induced demand (PID) but rather shifted the effect of PID from one revenue source to another with differential effects in secondary vs. tertiary hospitals. Supplemental policies are likely needed to address PID and reduce patient costs.

A systematic review and cross-sectional survey of rehabilitation resources for injury patients in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania.

PURPOSE: An estimated 10 million people across Tanzania have a condition that would benefit from rehabilitative care. However, access to rehabilitation remains inadequate to meet the needs of Tanzania's population. The goal of this study was to identify and characterize rehabilitation resources available to injury patients in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania. METHODS: We used two approaches to identify and characterize rehabilitation services. First, we conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and gray literature. Second, we administered a questionnaire to rehabilitation clinics identified through the systematic review as well as through staff at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre. RESULTS: Our systematic review identified eleven organizations offering rehabilitation services. Eight of these organizations responded to our questionnaire. Seven of the surveyed organizations provide care to patients with spinal cord injuries, short term disability, or permanent movement disorders. Six offer diagnostic and treatment procedures to injured and disabled patients. Six offer homecare support. Two require no payment. Only three accept health insurance. None offer financial support. CONCLUSIONS: There is a sizable portfolio of health clinics offering rehabilitation services to injury patients in the Kilimanjaro region. However, there remains an ongoing need to connect more patients in the region to long-term rehabilitative care.IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATIONInjury is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide and disproportionately affects populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).Rehabilitation is an essential component of injury care, yet an estimated 50% of patients in LMICs who need rehabilitation do not receive it.This study offers insight into the availability and use of rehabilitative services in an LMIC with a substantial injury burden.

Rapid growth of private hospitals in China: emerging challenges and opportunities to health sector management.

China's private hospital market has experienced rapid growth over the last decade, with private hospitals now outnumbering public hospitals by a factor of two. This policy analysis uses available data and existing literature to analyze China's rapidly changing hospital market, identify key challenges resulting from rapid private hospital growth, and present recommendations to ensure future sustainable private hospital development in the country. Our analysis shows that while private hospitals outnumber public hospitals, outpatient visits and hospitalizations remain higher among public hospitals, while per-patient expenditure remains higher among private hospitals. Key challenges to private hospital development include limited government financial support, high tax burdens, difficulty in workforce recruitment and retainment, poor government regulation and oversight, and dissipating public trust. Recommendations to address these challenges include opening government contract bidding to private hospitals, creating a system that allows private hospitals to enter national health insurance schemes, reducing tax pressure on private hospitals, defining a legal system for market entry and exit of private hospitals, improving a system of supervision, and monitoring and evaluation of private hospital operation and performance.

Scaling up antivenom for snakebite envenoming in the Brazilian Amazon: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background: Snakebite envenoming (SBE) affects nearly three million people yearly, causing up to 180,000 deaths and 400,000 cases of permanent disability. Brazil's state of Amazonas is a global hotspot for SBE, with one of the highest annual incidence rates per 100,000 people, worldwide. Despite this burden, snake antivenom remains inaccessible to a large proportion of SBE victims in Amazonas. This study estimates the costs, and health and economic benefits of scaling up antivenom to community health centers (CHCs) and hospitals in the state. Methods: We built a decision tree model to simulate three different antivenom scale-up scenarios: (1) scale up to 95% of hospitals, (2) scale up to 95% of CHCs, and (3) scale up to 95% of hospitals and 95% of CHCs. We consider each scenario with and without a 10% increase in demand for antivenom among SBE victims. For each scenario, we model the treatment costs averted, deaths averted, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from a societal, health system, and patient perspective relative to the status quo and over a time horizon of one year. For each scenario and perspective, we also calculate the incremental cost per DALY averted and per death averted. We use a willingness to pay threshold equal to the 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of Brazil. Findings: Scaling up antivenom to 95% of hospitals averts up to 2022 DALYs, costs up to USD $460 per DALY averted from a health system perspective, but results in net economic benefits up to USD $4.42 million from a societal perspective. Scaling up antivenom to 95% of CHCs averts up to 3179 DALYs, costs up to USD $308 per DALY averted from a health system perspective, but results in net economic benefits up to USD $7.35 million from a societal perspective. Scaling up antivenom to 95% of hospitals and CHCs averts up to 3922 DALYs, costs up to USD $328 per DALY averted from a health system perspective, but results in net economic benefits up to USD $8.98 million from a societal perspective. Interpretation: All three antivenom scale up scenarios - scale up to 95% of hospitals, scale up to 95% of CHCs, and scale up to 95% of hospitals and 95% of CHCs - avert a substantial proportion of the SBE burden in Amazonas and are cost-saving from a societal perspective and cost-effective from a health system perspective. Funding: W.M. and J.S. were funded by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq productivity scholarships). W.M. was funded by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas (PRÓ-ESTADO, call n. 011/2021-PCGP/FAPEAM, call n. 010/2021-CT&I ÁREAS PRIORITÁRIAS, call n. 003/2022-PRODOC/FAPEAM, POSGRAD/FAPEAM) and by the Ministry of Health, Brazil (Proposal No. 733781/19-035). Research reported in this publication was supported by the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R21TW011944. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Rethinking how development assistance for health can catalyse progress on primary health care.

Global campaigns to control HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and vaccine-preventable illnesses showed that large-scale impact can be achieved by using additional international financing to support selected, evidence-based, high-impact investment areas and to catalyse domestic resource mobilisation. Building on this paradigm, we make the case for targeting additional international funding for selected high-impact investments in primary health care. We have identified and costed a set of concrete, evidence-based investments that donors could support, which would be expected to have major impacts at an affordable cost. These investments are in: (1) individuals and communities empowered to engage in health decision making, (2) a new model of people-centred primary care, and (3) next generation community health workers. These three areas would be supported by strengthening two cross-cutting elements of national systems. The first is the digital tools and data that support facility, district, and national managers to improve processes, quality of care, and accountability across primary health care. The second is the educational, training, and supervisory systems needed to improve the quality of care. We estimate that with an additional international investment of between US$1·87 billion in a low-investment scenario and $3·85 billion in a high-investment scenario annually over the next 3 years, the international community could support the scale-up of this evidence-based package of investments in the 59 low-income and middle-income countries that are eligible for external financing from the World Bank Group's International Development Association.

Machine learning models to predict traumatic brain injury outcomes in Tanzania: Using delays to emergency care as predictors.

Constraints to emergency department resources may prevent the timely provision of care following a patient's arrival to the hospital. In-hospital delays may adversely affect health outcomes, particularly among trauma patients who require prompt management. Prognostic models can help optimize resource allocation thereby reducing in-hospital delays and improving trauma outcomes. The objective of this study was to investigate the predictive value of delays to emergency care in machine learning based traumatic brain injury (TBI) prognostic models. Our data source was a TBI registry from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre Emergency Department in Moshi, Tanzania. We created twelve unique variables representing delays to emergency care and included them in eight different machine learning based TBI prognostic models that predict in-hospital outcome. Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Inclusion of our twelve time to care variables improved predictability in each of our eight prognostic models. Our Bayesian generalized linear model produced the largest AUC, with a value of 89.5 (95% CI: 88.8, 90.3). Time to care variables were among the most important predictors of in-hospital outcome in our best three performing models. In low-resource settings where delays to care are highly prevalent and contribute to high mortality rates, incorporation of care delays into prediction models that support clinical decision making may benefit both emergency medicine physicians and trauma patients by improving prognostication performance.

Comparing research and development, launch, and scale up timelines of 18 vaccines: lessons learnt from COVID-19 and implications for other infectious diseases.

Over the next decade, millions of deaths could be prevented by increasing access to vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that the research and development (R&D), launch and scale up timelines of vaccines can be drastically shortened. This study compares such timelines for eighteen vaccines and identifies lessons and implications for accelerating the R&D, launch and scale up process for other vaccine candidates. To replicate the rapid R&D process of the COVID-19 vaccines, future vaccine R&D should capitalise on public-private knowledge sharing partnerships to promote technology innovation, establish regional clinical trial centres and data sharing networks to optimise clinical trial efficiency, and create a funding mechanism to support research into novel vaccine platforms that may prove valuable to quickly developing vaccine candidates in future global health emergencies. To accelerate the launch timeline, future efforts to bring safe and efficacious vaccines to market should include LMICs in the decision-making processes of global procurement and delivery alliances to optimise launch in these countries, strengthen the WHO prequalification and Emergency Use Listing programs to ensure LMICs have a robust and transparent regulatory system to rely on, and invest in LMIC regulatory and manufacturing capacity to ensure these countries are vaccine self-sufficient. Lastly, efforts to accelerate scale up of vaccines should include the creation of regional pooled procurement mechanisms between LMICs to increase purchasing power among these countries and an open line of clear communication with the public regarding pertinent vaccine information to combat misinformation and vaccine hesitancy.

Investing in a global pooled-funding mechanism for late-stage clinical trials of poverty-related and neglected diseases: an economic evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: Poverty-related and neglected diseases (PRNDs) cause over three million deaths annually. Despite this burden, there is a large gap between actual funding for PRND research and development (R&D) and the funding needed to launch PRND products from the R&D pipeline. This study provides an economic evaluation of a theoretical global pooled-funding mechanism to finance late-stage clinical trials of PRND products. METHODS: We modelled three pooled-funding design options, each based on a different level of coverage of candidate products for WHO's list of PRNDs: (1) vaccines covering 4 PRNDs, (2) vaccines and therapeutics covering 9 PRNDs and (3) vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics covering 30 PRNDs. For each option, we constructed a discrete event simulation of the 2019 PRND R&D pipeline to estimate required funding for phase III trials and expected product launches through 2035. For each launch, we estimated global PRND treatment costs averted, deaths averted and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. For each design option, we calculated the cost per death averted, cost per DALY averted, the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: Option 1 averts 18.4 million deaths and 516 million DALYs, has a cost per DALY averted of US$84 and yields a BCR of 5.53. Option 2 averts 22.9 million deaths and 674 million DALYs, has a cost per DALY averted of US$75, an ICER over option 1 of US$49 and yields a BCR of 3.88. Option 3 averts 26.9 million deaths and 1 billion DALYs, has a cost per DALY averted of US$114, an ICER over option 2 of US$186 and yields a BCR of 2.52. CONCLUSIONS: All 3 options for a pooled-funding mechanism-vaccines for 4 PRNDs, vaccines and therapeutics for 9 PRNDs, and vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics for 30 PRNDs-would generate a large return on investment, avert a substantial proportion of the global burden of morbidity and mortality for diseases of poverty and be cost-effective.

Shame and Guilt in EMS: A Qualitative Analysis of Culture and Attitudes in Prehospital Emergency Care.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: The shame reaction is a highly negative emotional reaction shown to have long-term deleterious effects on the mental health of clinicians. Prior studies have focused on in-hospital personnel, but very little is known about what drives shame reactions in emergency medical services (EMS), a field with very high rates of post-traumatic stress disorder, burnout, anxiety, and depression. The objective of this study was to describe emotions, processes, and resilience associated with self-identified adverse events in the work of prehospital clinicians. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study using a modified critical incident technique. Participants were recruited from two EMS agencies in North Carolina: one urban and one rural. They provided an open-ended, written reflection in which they were asked to self-identify particular events in their EMS careers that felt emotionally difficult. In-person or video in-depth interviews about these events were then conducted in a semi-structured fashion using an iterative interview guide. The codebook was developed through a mix of inductive and deductive analysis strategies and discussed within the research team and a content expert for validation. Interviews were transcribed and data were analyzed following a thematic content analysis approach for types of cases identified as emotionally difficult, common emotional responses and coping mechanisms, and the lingering effects of these experiences on study subjects. RESULTS: Eight interviews were conducted with EMS personnel: five from an urban agency and three from a rural agency. Participants commonly identified complex medical cases as being emotionally difficult, which led to the most robust shame reactions. Shame reactions were more common when EMS clinicians committed self-perceived errors in patient care, whereas guilt reactions were more common when patient outcomes seemed "inevitable" despite any intervention. Common themes related to coping mechanisms included both personal mechanisms, which tended to be less successful compared to interpersonal mechanisms, particularly when emotions were shared with colleagues. This reflected a perceived culture change within EMS in which sharing emotions with colleagues was seen as a departure from the "old school" where emotions tended to be kept to oneself. Feelings of inadequacy, low self-worth, and being "not good enough" were frequently identified as lingering emotions after difficult cases that were hard to move on from, corresponding to longstanding shame in these clinicians. Recovery and resilience varied but tended to be positively associated with a culture in which sharing with colleagues was encouraged, along with personal introspection on root causes for the sentinel event. CONCLUSION: EMS clinicians often identify complex patient cases as those leading to emotions such as shame and guilt, with shame reactions being more common when a perceived error was committed. Coping mechanisms were varied, but individuals often relied on their coworkers in a sharing environment to adequately process their negative feelings, which was seen as a departure from past practices in EMS personnel. Our hope is that future studies will be able to use these findings to identify targets for intervention on negative mental health outcomes in EMS personnel.

Injury characteristics and their association with clinical complications among emergency care patients in Tanzania.

Background: Over 5 million people annually die from injuries and millions more sustain non-fatal injuries requiring medical care. Ninety percent of injury deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study describes the characteristics, predictors and outcomes of adult acute injury patients presenting to a tertiary referral hospital in a low-income country in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: This secondary analysis uses an adult acute injury registry from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) in Moshi, Tanzania. We describe this patient sample in terms of socio-demographics, clinical indicators, injury patterns, treatments, and outcomes at hospital discharge. Outcomes include mortality, length of hospital stay, and functional independence. Associations between patient characteristics and patient outcomes are quantified using Cox proportional hazards models, negative binomial regression, and multivariable logistic regression. Results: Of all injury patients (n=1365), 39.0% were aged 30 to 49 years and 81.5% were men. Most patients had at least a primary school education (89.6%) and were employed (89.3%). A majority of injuries were road traffic (63.2%), fall (16.8%), or assault (14.0%) related. Self-reported comorbidities included hypertension (5.8%), HIV (3.1%), and diabetes (2.3%). Performed surgeries were classified as orthopedic (32.3%), general (4.1%), neurological (3.7%), or other (59.8%). Most patients reached the hospital at least four hours after injury occurred (53.9%). Mortality was 5.3%, median length of hospital stay was 6.1 days (IQR: 3.1, 15.0), self-care dependence was 54.2%, and locomotion dependence was 41.5%. Conclusions: Our study sample included primarily young men suffering road traffic crashes with delayed hospital presentations and prolonged hospital stays. Being older, male, and requiring non-orthopedic surgeries or having HIV portends a worse prognosis. Prevention and treatment focused interventions to reduce the burden of injury mortality and morbidity at KCMC are needed to lower injury rates and improve injury outcomes.

Investing in late-stage clinical trials and manufacturing of product candidates for five major infectious diseases: a modelling study of the benefits and costs of investment in three middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Investing in late-stage clinical trials, trial sites, and production capacity for new health products could improve access to vaccines, therapeutics, and infectious disease diagnostics in middle-income countries. This study assesses the case for such investment in three of these countries: India, Kenya, and South Africa. METHODS: We applied investment case modelling and assessed how many cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) could be averted from the development and manufacturing of new technologies (therapeutics and vaccines) in these countries from 2021 to 2036, for five diseases-HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoeal diseases. We also estimated the economic benefits that might accrue from making these investments and we developed benefit-cost ratios for each of the three middle-income countries. Our modelling applies two investment case perspectives: a societal perspective with all costs and benefits measured at the societal level, and a country perspective to estimate how much health and economic benefit accrues to each middle-income country for every dollar invested in clinical trials and manufacturing by the middle-income country government. For each perspective, we modelled two scenarios: one that considers only domestic health and economic benefits; and one that includes regional health and economic benefits. In the regional scenarios, we assumed that new products developed and manufactured in India would benefit eight countries in south Asia, whereas new products developed and manufactured in Kenya would benefit all 21 countries in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). We also assumed that all 16 countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) would benefit from products developed and manufactured in South Africa. FINDINGS: From 2021 to 2036, product development and manufacturing in Kenya could avert 4·44 million deaths and 206·27 million DALYs in the COMESA region. In South Africa, it could prevent 5·19 million deaths and 253·83 million DALYs in the SADC region. In India, it could avert 9·76 million deaths and 374·42 million DALYs in south Asia. Economic returns would be especially high if new tools were produced for regional markets rather than for domestic markets only. Under a societal perspective, regional returns outweigh investments by a factor of 20·51 in Kenya, 33·27 in South Africa, and 66·56 in India. Under a country perspective, the regional benefit-cost ratios amount to 60·71 in India, 8·78 in Kenya, and 11·88 in South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Our study supports the creation of regional hubs for clinical trials and product manufacturing compared with narrow national efforts. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Achieving global mortality reduction targets and universal health coverage: The impact of COVID-19.

Wenhui Mao and coauthors discuss possible implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for health aspirations in low- and middle-income countries.

An analysis of emergency care delays experienced by traumatic brain injury patients presenting to a regional referral hospital in a low-income country.

BACKGROUND: Trauma is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), trauma patients have a higher risk of experiencing delays to care due to limited hospital resources and difficulties in reaching a health facility. Reducing delays to care is an effective method for improving trauma outcomes. However, few studies have investigated the variety of care delays experienced by trauma patients in LMICs. The objective of this study was to describe the prevalence of pre- and in-hospital delays to care, and their association with poor outcomes among trauma patients in a low-income setting. METHODS: We used a prospective traumatic brain injury (TBI) registry from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center in Moshi, Tanzania to model nine unique delays to care. Multiple regression was used to identify delays significantly associated with poor in-hospital outcomes. RESULTS: Our analysis included 3209 TBI patients. The most common delay from injury occurrence to hospital arrival was 1.1 to 4.0 hours (31.9%). Most patients were evaluated by a physician within 15.0 minutes of arrival (69.2%). Nearly all severely injured patients needed and did not receive a brain computed tomography scan (95.0%). A majority of severely injured patients needed and did not receive oxygen (80.8%). Predictors of a poor outcome included delays to lab tests, fluids, oxygen, and non-TBI surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Time to care data is informative, easy to collect, and available in any setting. Our time to care data revealed significant constraints to non-personnel related hospital resources. Severely injured patients with the greatest need for care lacked access to medical imaging, oxygen, and surgery. Insights from our study and future studies will help optimize resource allocation in low-income hospitals thereby reducing delays to care and improving trauma outcomes in LMICs.

A Mixed-Methods Study: Sex Differences in Experiences of Stigma Associated With Alcoholism and Alcohol Use Disorders Among Injury Patients in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Each year, alcohol use causes 3.3 million deaths globally and accounts for nearly 30% of injuries treated at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center (KCMC) in Moshi, Tanzania. Prior research found significant stigma toward patients reporting alcohol use in general and among healthcare providers for this population. METHODS: This mixed-methods study aimed to identify sex-based perspectives of stigma among injury patients, family members, and local community advisory board (CAB) members. Injury patients from the emergency room at KCMC were asked to complete surveys capturing consumption of alcohol, perceived stigma, and consequences of drinking. Patients who completed the survey, their family members, and members of a CAB were also recruited to take part in focus groups led by a trained bilingual research nurse. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression and Wilcoxon rank sum tests with alpha level set at 0.05. RESULTS: Results showed that sex was a significant predictor of perceived discrimination (p = 0.037, Standard Error (SE) = 1.71 (0.81)) but not for perceived devaluation (p = 0.667, SE = -0.38 (0.89)). Focus groups revealed there were global negative perceptions of the amount of alcohol consumed as well as negative perceptions toward disclosure of alcohol use to healthcare providers. Sex differences in stigma emerged when participants were specifically asked about women and their alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest there is an underlying sex difference, further stigmatizing women for alcohol use among the injury patient population at KCMC. Tanzanian women suffer from unequal access to health care, and the stigmatization of alcohol use likely increases this disparity.