Lessons from integrated seasonal forecast-crop modelling in Africa: A systematic review.

Seasonal forecasts coupled with crop models can potentially enhance decision-making in smallholder farming in Africa. The study sought to inform future research through identifying and critiquing crop and climate models, and techniques for integrating seasonal forecast information and crop models. Peer-reviewed articles related to crop modelling and seasonal forecasting were sourced from Google Scholar, Web of Science, AGRIS, and JSTOR. Nineteen articles were selected from a search outcome of 530. About 74% of the studies used mechanistic models, which are favored for climate risk management research as they account for crop management practices. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Hamburg, are the predominant global climate models (GCMs) used across Africa. A range of approaches have been assessed to improve the effectiveness of the connection between seasonal forecast information and mechanistic crop models, which include GCMs, analogue, stochastic disaggregation, and statistical prediction through converting seasonal weather summaries into the daily weather. GCM outputs are produced in a format compatible with mechanistic crop models. Such outputs are critical for researchers to have information on the merits and demerits of tools and approaches on integrating seasonal forecast and crop models. There is however need to widen such research to other regions in Africa, crop, farming systems, and policy.

A scoping review of adoption of climate-resilient crops by small-scale producers in low- and middle-income countries.

Climate-resilient crops and crop varieties have been recommended as a way for farmers to cope with or adapt to climate change, but despite the apparent benefits, rates of adoption by smallholder farmers are highly variable. Here we present a scoping review, using PRISMA-P (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis Protocols), examining the conditions that have led to the adoption of climate-resilient crops over the past 30 years in lower- and middle-income countries. The descriptive analysis performed on 202 papers shows that small-scale producers adopted climate-resilient crops and varieties to cope with abiotic stresses such as drought, heat, flooding and salinity. The most prevalent trait in our dataset was drought tolerance, followed by water-use efficiency. Our analysis found that the most important determinants of adoption of climate-resilient crops were the availability and effectiveness of extension services and outreach, followed by education levels of heads of households, farmers' access to inputs-especially seeds and fertilizers-and socio-economic status of farming families. About 53% of studies reported that social differences such as sex, age, marital status and ethnicity affected the adoption of varieties or crops as climate change-adaptation strategies. On the basis of the collected evidence, this study presents a series of pathways and interventions that could contribute to higher adoption rates of climate-resilient crops and reduce dis-adoption.

Climate change, household vulnerability and smart agriculture: The case of two South African provinces.

The impact of climate-change disasters poses significant challenges for South Africa, especially for vulnerable rural households. In South Africa, the impact of climate change at the local level, especially in rural areas, is not well known. Rural households are generally poor and lack resources to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change, but the extent of their vulnerability is largely not understood. This study looked at the micro-level impact of climate change, evaluated household vulnerability and assessed alternative adaptation strategies in rural areas. The results indicate that climate change will hit crop yields hard and that households with less capital are most vulnerable. These households consist of the elderly and households headed by females. Households that receive remittances or extension services or participate in formal savings schemes in villages are less vulnerable. The results suggest that households need to move towards climate-smart agriculture, which combines adaptation, mitigation and productivity growth.