[Mortality prediction ability of phycians in intensive care units of Turkey (MOPAP)]. / Türkiye'de yogun bakim ünitelerinde hekimin mortaliteyi öngörebilme gücü.

INTRODUCTION: Intensive care physicians are increasingly involved in decision making about the prognosis of intensive care unit ICU patients. With this study; we aimed to evaluate the power of clinician foresight at prediction of mortality in patient at triage to intensive care and patient follow-up. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was conducted in ICUs located in various geographical regions of Turkey between January 1, 2017-April 30, 2017.The clinical research was planned as observational, multicenter, cross-sectional. RESULT: A total of 1169 intubated patients were followed in 37 different ICU. At the beginning of the follow-up we asked the physician who will follow the patient in the ICU to give a score for the probability of survival of the patients. Scoring included a total of 6 scores from 0 to 5, with the "0" the worst probability "5" being the best. According to this distribution, only 1 (0.9%) of 113 patients who were given 0 points survived. Three (6.1%) of 49 with the best score of 5 died. Survival rates were significantly different in each score group (r: -0.488; p<0.001). After the combined mortality estimation scores based on the clinical observations of the physicians (0 and 1 point score was combined as non-survive, 4 and 5 score was combined as survived) 320 of the 545 patients were estimated to be dead and 225 were predicted survival. Sensitivity and spesifity of scoring system to predict mortality was 91.56% (95% CI: 87.96-94.37), 76.89% (95% CI: 70.82-82.23) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we concluded that the physicians who follow the patients in the ICU can predict the poor prognosis at the time of admission and the high mortality rate. The physician's opinion on mortality estimation should be considered in intensive care mortality scoring in addition to other laboratory and clinical parameters.

Retrospective review of epidemic viral pneumonia cases in Turkey: A multicenter study.

Influenza A (H1N1) caused its first pandemic in 2009 in USA and Mexico. Since then, clinicians have exercised great care in order to make an early diagnosis of viral pneumonias. This is due in part to pandemic influenza A infection having greater impact on populations <65 years old than other viral strains, including seasonal influenza. Chest radiographies of those affected displayed a rapid progression of patchy infiltrates, and a large proportion of individuals required admission to intensive care units (ICU). Despite efforts, patients infected with the virus had a high mortality rate. The present multicenter study aimed to retrospectively evaluate the clinical, demographic and prognostic characteristics of patients diagnosed with epidemic viral pneumonia in Turkey. A total of 92 patients were included in the study. The Student's t-test and Chi-square tests were performed to analyze quantitative data, assuming a normal distribution, and to analyze qualitative data, respectively. Stepwise logistic regression was used to evaluate the effects of demographic variables and laboratory values on the virus mortality rate. The male/female ratio was 42/50 and the mean age was 48.74±16.65 years. A total of 69 (75%) patients were unvaccinated against influenza. The most common symptoms were cough (87%) and fever (63%). Chest computed tomography showed peripheral patchy areas of the lungs of ground glass density in 38 patients (41.3%). A total of 22 (59.4%) patients had H1N1, 5 (12.5%) patients had influenza B, and 38 (41.3%) patients met the criteria for admission to the ICU. Of these patients, 20 (52.63%) were monitored with a mechanical ventilator, with a noninvasive ventilator being adequate for 10 (26.32%) of patients. The length of stay in the ICU was 6.45±5.97 days and the duration of mechanical ventilation was 5.06±4.69 days. A total of 12 (13.04%) patients in the ICU succumbed. Logistic regression analysis revealed that among the parameters possibly associated with mortality, being an active smoker increased the risk of mortality 7.08-fold compared to other groups (P=0.005). In conclusion, viral pneumonia remains a significant health problem during the winter period. Considering the high number of ICU admissions and high rate of mortality for patients in the present study, earlier initiation of antiviral therapy is necessary. Active smoking increased mortality in viral pneumonia.