Still Unanswered Questions About SARS-CoV-2 Mortality and Future Directions for Occupational Medicine.

The article discusses a recent study on mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Italy and the need for further analysis. The study used a reliable methodology to estimate excess deaths due to the pandemic. However, there are still questions about the specific effects of COVID-19 compared to other factors, such as delayed or missing access to treatment for other illnesses. Analyzing the time course of excess deaths could reveal such effects. There are also open questions about how COVID-19 deaths are classified and reported, which could lead to over or under-diagnosing cases. The article notes that occupational physicians have played an important role in preventing the spread of COVID-19 among workers. A recent study found that personal protective equipment (PPE), particularly masks, effectively reduced the risk of infection among healthcare workers. However, it is still unclear whether Occupational Medicine should incorporate infectious diseases as a major concern or return to its historically agnostic attitude toward communicable diseases. More data on mortality from specific diseases will be needed for further analysis and understanding of the pandemic's effects on mortality rates in Italy.

Epidemiologic Health Impact Assessment: Estimation of Attributable Cases and Application to Decision Making.

OBJECTIVES: The epidemiologic Health Impact Assessment (eHIA) process is receiving growing attention in Italy. In the context of such an approach, the present paper has three objectives: to review the computational aspects of eHIA for stressing strengths and weaknesses of methods and formulas; to discuss which rate at baseline could be used for the estimation of attributable cases; how to use the results of eHIA to make decisions regarding the realization of industrial projects. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a linear formulation of the relationship between exposure and disease occurrence: a) formulas have been derived to compute attributable cases (AC) using both Relative Risk (RR) and Excess Risk (ER) approaches; b) a discussion is made of the use as baseline rate of the rate that is caused by all the risk factors for a particular disease and a suggestion is made to use the rate that is caused simply by the risk factors that are under evaluation; c) under assumptions and approximations that must be validated in any specific situation, formulas are derived to compute Incremental Lifetime Cumulative Risk (ILCR), an indicator that can be used to compare the results coming from the eHIA approach with the levels of action used by USEPA and others (10-6, 10-5, 10-4). -Conclusion: In this paper, the methodology and the formulas commonly used in eHIA have been enlarged to consider the case in which the baseline rate is equal to zero, suggesting to use Excess Risk (ER) estimates instead of Relative Risk (RR) estimates. Using different baseline rates produces very different estimates of AC, and work needs to be done on this topic. Lastly, due to assumptions, approximations, and uncertainty of eHIA computations, prudence and caution should be exercised in using eHIA results in decision making, particularly if hard decisions have to be made.

Cinacalcet adherence in dialysis patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism in Lombardy Region: clinical implications and costs.

BACKGROUND: Patients on dialysis often have secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT), a disorder associated with renal osteodystrophy, progressive vascular calcification, cardiovascular disease, and death. The objective of this retrospective observational study was to evaluate, in dialysis patients with SHPT, the impact of different levels of adherence to cinacalcet therapy on hospitalisations and direct healthcare costs charged to the Lombardy Regional Health Service (Italy). METHODS: Data recorded in the administrative databases on all citizens undergoing dialysis between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2011 were selected. For the aim of this study, patients with SHPT already on dialysis in the first 6 months of 2009 who had been treated with cinacalcet for at least 365 days were selected and retrospectively analysed through to end of 2012. Healthcare resource utilisation, cinacalcet adherence, and costs for medication, hospitalisations, and diagnostic/therapeutic procedures were estimated. RESULTS: A total of 994 patients were identified (mean age 63.0 years, females 43.5%). The first patient tertile had an adherence to cinacalcet of <64.1%, whereas the third had an adherence of over 91.5%. Patients in the third adherence tertile experienced fewer all-causes hospitalisations than those in the first tertile (-19.2%; p=0.01423), fractures (-37.1%; p=0.59422), cardiovascular disease (-23.8%; p=0.04025), and sepsis (-32.3%; p=0.01386). The increase in costs for cinacalcet-adherent patients is almost completely offset by the reduction in costs for hospitalisations. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the analysis suggest that there may be some correlation between a high level of cinacalcet adherence and a decrease in hospitalisations.

Position Paper on Asbestos of the Italian Society of Occupational Medicine.

The Position Paper (PP) on asbestos of the Italian Society of Occupational Medicine (SIML) aims at providing a tool to the occupational physician to address current diagnostic criteria and results of epidemiological studies, and their consequences in terms of preventive and evaluation actions for insurance, compensation and litigation. The PP was based on an extensive review of the scientific literature and was compiled by a Working Group comprising researchers who have contributed to the international literature on asbestos-related diseases, as well as occupational physicians with extensive experience in the evaluation of risks and the medical surveillance of workers currently and formerly exposed to asbestos. The PP was drafted and reviewed between 2017 and 2018; its final version was prepared according to the guidelines of AGREE Reporting Checklist. All the members of the Working Group subscribed to the document, which was eventually approved by SIML's Executive Committee. The first section addresses industrial hygiene issues, such as methods for environmental monitoring, advantages and limitations of different microscopy techniques, the potential role of microfibers and approaches for retrospective assessment of exposure, in particular in epidemiological studies. The second section reviews the biological effects of asbestos with particular attention to the diagnostic aspects of asbestosis, pleural changes, mesothelioma and lung cancer. In the following section the criteria of causal attribution are discussed, together with different hypotheses on the form of the risk functions, with a comparison of the opinions prevalent in the literature. In particular, the models of the risk function for mesothelioma were examined, in the light of the hypothesis of an acceleration or anticipation of the events in relation to the dose. The last section discusses topics of immediate relevance for the occupational physician, such as health surveillance of former exposed and of workers currently exposed in remediation activities.

Real-world data on healthcare resource consumption and costs before and after kidney transplantation.

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) is increasing worldwide as a consequence of population aging and increasing chronic illness. Treatment consists mostly of dialysis and kidney transplantation (KTx), and KTx offers advantages for life expectancy and long-term cost reductions compared with dialysis. This study uses the administrative database of the Lombardy Region to analyze the costs of a cohort of patients with ESRD receiving KTx, covering a time period of 24 months before transplant to 12 months after. During 2011, 276 patients underwent kidney transplantation (8.7% preemptive and 91.3% non-preemptive). In the period before transplantation, the main cost driver was dialysis (66.6% for the period from -24 to -12 months and 73.8% for the period from -12 to 0 months), while in the 12 months after KTx, the most relevant cost was surgery. The total cost -24 to -12 months pre-KTx was 35 049.2€; the cost -12 to 0 months was 36 745.9€; and the cost 12 months after KTx was 43 805.8€. Non-preemptive patients showed much higher costs both pre- and post-KTx than preemptive patients. This study highlights how KTx modifies the resource consumption and costs composition of patients with ESRD vs those undergoing dialysis treatment and how KTx may be economically beneficial, especially preemptive intervention.

Management and Survival of Pleural Mesothelioma: A Record Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND: Pleural mesothelioma (PM) is a rare, highly lethal tumor. A definite consensus on its management has yet to be established. OBJECTIVES: To assess management, overall survival (OS), and their predictors in a cohort of patients from Lombardy, the largest Italian region (about 10 million inhabitants). METHODS: Through a record linkage between Lombardy health care administrative databases, we identified patients diagnosed with PM in 2006-2011 without history of cancer, evaluating their management. OS from PM diagnosis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of OS and of treatment were assessed using Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates when appropriate. RESULTS: Out of 1,326 patients, 754 (56.9%) received treatment for PM: 205 (15.5%) underwent surgery, and 696 (52.5%) used chemotherapy. Surgery was spread across several hospitals, and most patients diagnosed in nonspecialized centers (70%) underwent surgery in the same centers. Age at diagnosis was a strong inverse determinant of surgery. Determinants of receiving chemotherapy were younger age, a more recent first diagnosis, and first diagnosis in a specialized center. OS was 45.4% at 1 year, 24.8% at 2 years, and 9.6% at 5 years (median 11 months). OS decreased with age, and was higher for those who underwent surgery, but not for those treated with chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Management of PM varied widely in clinical practice, and significant predictors of treatment were younger age and recent diagnosis, though a high proportion of patients were not treated. Patients were treated in various hospitals, indicating the importance of concentrating serious rare neoplasms in Comprehensive Cancer Centers (as recognized by the Italian Health Ministry).

Increase of exposure and event acceleration. / Aumento dell'esposizione e anticipazione degli eventi.

INTRODUCTION: In a previous paper on acceleration of failure time we highlighted the difficulties of the application to the case of mesothelioma of the methodology proposed by Berry. In this contribution we elaborate further on the concept of anticipation/acceleration, taking into account the content of the III Italian Consensus Document. METHODS: We analyzed the ways in which the concept of anticipation/acceleration has been proposed and interpreted in the III Consensus Document. RESULTS: We show that the concept of anticipation of the III Consensus Document has to do with incidence (frequency) in a population (and not with acceleration of the pathological process in an individual case), and is a measure which is alternative to other measures of frequency effects. In addition, we show that the same epidemiological result is compatible with causal models where no cases, all the cases, or some of the cases are anticipated. DISCUSSION: This paper suggests that the concept of anticipation measurable through epidemiologic data has to do exclusively with the anticipation of a frequency indicator (more occurrencies and anticipated occurrencies are indistinguishable and alternative concepts) but not with the acceleration of the biological process in individual cases. In causal terms, without a biological support it is not possible to infer from the epidemiologic results if a causal model is in action with no, all, or some of cases anticipated.

Healthcare costs of the progression of chronic kidney disease and different dialysis techniques estimated through administrative database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression is associated with significant comorbidities and costs. In Italy, limited evidence of healthcare resource consumption and costs is available. We therefore aimed to investigate the direct healthcare costs in charge to the Lombardy Regional Health Service (RHS) for the treatment of CKD patients in the first year after starting hemodialysis and in the 2 years prior to dialysis. METHODS: Citizens resident in the Lombardy Region (Italy) who initiated dialysis in the year 2011 (Jan 1 to Dec 31) were selected and data were extracted from Lombardy Regional databases on their direct healthcare costs in the first year after starting dialysis and in the 2 years prior to it was analyzed. Drugs, hospitalizations, diagnostic procedures and outpatient costs covered by RHS were estimated. Patients treated for acute kidney injury, or who died or stopped dialysis during the observational period were excluded. RESULTS: From the regional population (>9,700,000 inhabitants), 1067 patients (34.3 % females) initiating dialysis were identified, of whom 82 % underwent only hemodialysis (HD), 13 % only peritoneal dialysis (PD) and the remaining 5 % both treatments. Direct healthcare costs/patient were € 5239, € 12,303 and € 38,821 (€ 40,132 for HD vs. € 30,444 for PD patients) for the periods 24-12 months pre-dialysis, 12-0 months pre-dialysis, and in the first year of dialysis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights a significant economic burden related to CKD and an increase in direct healthcare costs associated with the start of dialysis, pointing to the importance of prevention programs and early diagnosis.

Trastuzumab for HER2+ metastatic breast cancer in clinical practice: Cardiotoxicity and overall survival.

The evidence on efficacy and safety of trastuzumab in metastatic breast cancers (MBC) mainly derives from randomized clinical trials. We assessed short- and long-term overall survival (OS) and cardiotoxicity in a large cohort of women with MBC treated with trastuzumab in clinical settings. Using healthcare administrative data of Lombardy (10 millions inhabitants), we identified a cohort of women receiving trastuzumab for MBC between 2006 and 2009. The cumulative risk of severe cardiac events and the OS from the first trastuzumab administration were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Their predictors were assessed using Cox regression models. We found 681 trastuzumab MBC users. Thirty two (4.7%) women experienced severe cardiac adverse events. The cumulative risk increased sharply, reaching a value of 2.4% and 4.3% during the first and second year; thereafter it increased of about 1% per year. Age was a strong predictor of cardiotoxicity. The OS was 81.8%, 64.0%, 50.2%, 41.1% and 37.2% at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years, respectively. Independent predictors of worse OS were: age, brain liver or lung metastasis compared to other metastasis, use of taxanes and other chemotherapies, a cardiac adverse event after trastuzumab use, and a higher time between metastasis and BC diagnoses. The incidence of cardiotoxicity among women treated with trastuzumab for HER2-positive MBC appeared higher than that reported in RCTs, particularly in elder patients. In spite of this, median survival, was, if anything, better.

Indicators based on registers and administrative data for breast cancer: routine evaluation of oncologic care pathway can be implemented.

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: Assuring the best standards of care - in a sustainable way - in chronic diseases as breast cancer is nowadays an important challenge for any health system. The aim of this study was to present the methodology used to define a set of quality indicators, computable from administrative data for the pathway of care of breast cancer, and its application at a population level. METHOD: The cohort of 2007-2009 incident cases of breast cancer was identified through a network of six cancer registers in Northern Italy. Cases of sarcoma and lymphoma, patients with multiple primary cancers and those metastatic at diagnosis were excluded; 9614 women were retained for the analysis. For each indicator, the sub-cohort of women eligible for the diagnostic/therapeutic procedures was identified and calculations were performed through record linkage between the cohort and sources of health information. Data on potential available confounders or prognostic factors were also collected. RESULTS: For a few indicators, such as cyto-histological assessment before surgery (62%) and intensive follow-up (79%), deviation from recommendations was evident. Younger patients (≤50 years) more frequently needed a short term re-intervention, while older patients less frequently underwent reconstructive surgery and received palliative care. Several indicators had a great variability across hospitals. In some cases, this heterogeneity appeared to be related to the hospital size, with high-volume hospitals being more compliant to guidelines. CONCLUSION: It is possible to evaluate the quality of cancer care delivered in clinical practice in recent years, in order to implement interventions aimed to improve adherence to international standards of care.

Antihypertensive drug use during pregnancy: a population based study.

PURPOSE: The study aimed at assessing if the European guideline on the use of antihypertensive drugs (AD) in pregnancy are followed in clinical practice. We also evaluated the association between the use of non-recommended drugs and individual characteristics. METHODS: This study analyzed a cohort of 86 171 singleton deliveries occurring between 2009-2010 in the Lombardy region, Italy. Women with first prescription of AD during pregnancy were considered as incident users. Methyldopa, labetalol and nifedipine were considered as "recommended drugs"; all other AD were considered as "non-recommended". Odds Ratio and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. RESULTS: Among the 1009 patients (1.2%) exposed to AD during pregnancy, 675 (66.9%) were incident users. Among the incident users, 31% received non-recommended drugs; this proportion decreased to 18% among women who started treatment in the third trimester. Women with at least four concomitant diseases had an elevated risk of receiving non-recommended drugs in pregnancy (OR 2.68; 95% CI 1.10-6.73). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to recommended antihypertensives increased during pregnancy. Nevertheless, a fraction of users that continued or began treatment with non-recommended medications was still present.

Effectiveness of trastuzumab in first-line HER2+ metastatic breast cancer after failure in adjuvant setting: a controlled cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The evidence supporting the use of trastuzumab (T) in a metastatic setting comes from studies that included (almost) only patients who never received prior T. We investigated the effectiveness of T as first-line therapy for metastatic breast cancer (mBC) in women previously treated with T in the adjuvant setting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: By using record linkage of five administrative health care databases of Lombardy, Italy, we identified 2,046 women treated with T for early breast cancer (eBC) in 2006-2009, 96 of whom developed a metastasis and were retreated with T in first-line treatment for mBC (treatment group). We compared the overall survival (OS) of these women with that of 197 women treated with T in first-line treatment for mBC, who were treated with therapies other than T for early disease (control group). We computed Kaplan-Meier 2-year OS and used a proportional hazard model to estimate the multivariate hazard ratio (HR) of death in the intervention group compared with the control group, adjusted by age, use of endocrine therapy, and site of metastasis. RESULTS: Two-year OS was 60.0% in the treatment group and 59.5% in the control group. The adjusted HR of death in the treatment group compared with the control group was 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.50-1.26). CONCLUSION: Our data provide convincing evidence that the outcome of women receiving first-line T treatment for mBC after T failure in the adjuvant setting is comparable to that of women not receiving T for eBC. These data are of specific interest, given the unavailability of data from randomized clinical trials.

Long term survival of HER2-positive early breast cancer treated with trastuzumab-based adjuvant regimen: a large cohort study from clinical practice.

Trastuzumab-based regimens for the adjuvant treatment of HER2-positive early breast cancer significantly prolonged overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) in large randomized trials, with sustained benefits at four-year follow-up. We assessed long-term survival estimates and predictors in a large cohort of Italian women with early breast cancer treated with trastuzumab in clinical practice. Through a record linkage between five regional healthcare databases, we identified women treated with trastuzumab for early breast cancer in Lombardy (2006-2009). DFS and OS were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and independent predictors were assessed using proportional hazard models. 2046 women received trastuzumab in early breast cancer adjuvant setting. Overall, the proportion of patients surviving free of disease was 93.9% at one year, 85.8% at 2 years, 79.4% at 3 years, and 75.0% at 4 years. OS estimates were 98.7%, 95.4%, 91.5% and 89.4% at 1, 2, 3 and 4 years, respectively. Significant independent predictors of worse survival outcomes were age <40 or ≥70 years compared to age 40-69 years, positive nodal status, radical breast surgery, combination therapy with paclitaxel, having at least one comorbidity (i.e. diabetes, cardiovascular disease), and a trastuzumab-based regimen lasting less than six months. Long term survival rates of women treated with trastuzumab for early breast cancer in clinical practice were consistent with estimates from clinical trials testing the drug in the adjuvant setting.

Evaluation of safety of A/H1N1 pandemic vaccination during pregnancy: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of maternal, fetal, and neonatal outcomes associated with the administration of an MF59 adjuvanted A/H1N1 vaccine during pregnancy. DESIGN: Historical cohort study. SETTING: Singleton pregnancies of the resident population of the Lombardy region of Italy. PARTICIPANTS: All deliveries between 1 October 2009 and 30 September 2010. Data on exposure to A/H1N1 pandemic vaccine, pregnancy, and birth outcomes were retrieved from regional databases. Vaccinated and non-vaccinated women were compared in a propensity score matched analysis to estimate risks of adverse outcomes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Main maternal outcomes included type of delivery, admission to intensive care unit, eclampsia, and gestational diabetes; fetal and neonatal outcomes included perinatal deaths, small for gestational age births, and congenital malformations. RESULTS: Among the 86,171 eligible pregnancies, 6246 women were vaccinated (3615 (57.9%) in the third trimester and 2557 (40.9%) in the second trimester). No difference was observed in terms of spontaneous deliveries (adjusted odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.08) or admissions to intensive care units (0.95, 0.47 to 1.88), whereas a limited increase in the prevalence of gestational diabetes (1.26, 1.04 to 1.53) and eclampsia (1.19, 1.04 to 1.39) was seen in vaccinated women. Rates of fetal and neonatal outcomes were similar in vaccinated and non-vaccinated women. A slight increase in congenital malformations, although not statistically significant, was present in the exposed cohort (1.14, 0.99 to 1.31). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings add relevant information about the safety of the MF59 adjuvanted A/H1N1 vaccine in pregnancy. Residual confounding may partly explain the increased risk of some maternal outcomes. Meta-analysis of published studies should be conducted to further clarify the risk of infrequent outcomes, such as specific congenital malformations.

[A set of indicators to monitor the adherence to the guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer]. / Indicatori per il monitoraggio dei percorsi diagnostico-terapeutici del tumore della mammella.

OBJECTIVES: to present a set of indicators developed from six Local Health Authorities of the Lombardy Region to monitor the diagnostic and therapeutic pathway of breast cancer patients, applied to 2007-2009 incident cases. DESIGN: retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: all subjects with primary breast cancer, incident in the period 2007-2009, and collected by cancer registries of Milano 1, Bergamo, Cremona, Milano, Milano 2 and Monza-Brianza (5,320,272 inhabitants) were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: through the use of combined current health databases (health registry, hospitalizations, outpatient, pharmaceutical prescription and specific database for anticancer drugs), for each incident case 34 different indicators have been developed to measure the appropriateness of the procedures provided for diagnosis, treatment (surgical and medical) and follow-up. For each indicator, we analyzed the relationship with age, stage, deprivation index, type of treatment, volume of the specific procedure of the hospital where primary surgery was performed. Estimates were adjusted using multilevel regression models. RESULTS: 12,988 incident cases, without metastatic diseases and other cancers, were included in the cohort: 62% were localized to the breast, 33% to the axillary lymph-nodes, 3% metastatic ab initio, and 2% with unknown stage. Deviations from the expected value of different magnitude depending on the type of indicator were observed: the most important differences were detected for the follow-up indicators. There was, in fact, an excess of several procedures in the first year of follow-up: 75% of the cases performed a dosage of a tumor marker, 67% an ecography or a CT scan or an MR, and 37% a bone scan. On the other hand, the access to neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatments in older women was far below the expected values. CONCLUSIONS: the study presents data derived from a large cohort of population cases; the set of indicators was validated by a board of oncologists. The use of indicators calculated by linking the cancer registries (that provide staging) and administrative databases allows the assessment of compliance to the guidelines for diagnosis and treatment of tumours. This experience shows that it is possible to develop a methodology, shared with clinicians, to define indicators that measure the distance between guidelines and current clinical practice in order to decrease variability, to limit inappropriateness, and to reduce unnecessary diagnostic tests for patients (and, consequently, hospitals organizational overload). In order to be sustainable and equitable, a health care system must be able to ensure implementation of protocols/procedures based exclusively on the best available scientific evidences.

Trastuzumab-related cardiotoxicity in early breast cancer: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised about the cardiac safety profile of trastuzumab for the adjuvant treatment of early stage breast cancer in clinical practice. We assessed trastuzumab-related cardiotoxicity and its predictors in a large cohort of Italian women. METHODS: Through a record linkage between four regional health care databases, we identified the rate of severe cardiac adverse events among women treated with trastuzumab for early breast cancer in Lombardy. The cumulative risk of cardiotoxicity was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and independent predictors were assessed using the Cox model. RESULTS: Of 2,046 trastuzumab users, 53 (2.6%) experienced at least one hospitalization for a cardiac event, and there were two cardiac deaths. The cumulative risk of cardiotoxicity increased up to 2 years after starting treatment, reaching a plateau at 2.8%. The risk was low (0.2%) among young women, whereas the incidence was approximately 10% in women aged ≥70 years, irrespective of cardiovascular risk factors. Age and history of cardiac disease were strong predictors of cardiotoxicity, with a hazard ratio of 11.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.5-36.6) for women aged ≥70 years as compared with those <50 years of age. Hazard ratio was 4.4 (95% CI: 2.1-9.5) for women with a history of cardiac disease compared with those without a history of cardiac disease. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiotoxicity of trastuzumab varies considerably across subgroups of patients. The long-term safety profile was less favorable than in the largest clinical trial. Strategies to reduce cardiotoxicity in high-risk women should be investigated.