Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks.

Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress builds on a mathematical framework in which a real-world system is described by a low-dimensional equation system with a small number of key variables, where the critical transition often corresponds to a bifurcation. Here we show that in high-dimensional systems, containing many variables, we frequently encounter an additional non-bifurcative saddle-type mechanism leading to critical transitions. This generic class of transitions has been missed in the search for early-warnings up to now. In fact, the saddle-type mechanism also applies to low-dimensional systems with saddle-dynamics. Near a saddle a system moves slowly and the state may be perceived as stable over substantial time periods. We develop an early warning sign for the saddle-type transition. We illustrate our results in two network models and epidemiological data. This work thus establishes a connection from critical transitions to networks and an early warning sign for a new type of critical transition. In complex models and big data we anticipate that saddle-transitions will be encountered frequently in the future.

Largenet2: an object-oriented programming library for simulating large adaptive networks.

SUMMARY: The largenet2 C++ library provides an infrastructure for the simulation of large dynamic and adaptive networks with discrete node and link states. AVAILABILITY: The library is released as free software. It is available at http://biond.github.com/largenet2. Largenet2 is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. CONTACT: gerd@biond.org

Early fragmentation in the adaptive voter model on directed networks.

We consider voter dynamics on a directed adaptive network with fixed out-degree distribution. A transition between an active phase and a fragmented phase is observed. This transition is similar to the undirected case if the networks are sufficiently dense and have a narrow out-degree distribution. However, if a significant number of nodes with low out degree is present, then fragmentation can occur even far below the estimated critical point due to the formation of self-stabilizing structures that nucleate fragmentation. This process may be relevant for fragmentation in current political opinion formation processes.