Epidemiological changes and financial consequences of hypertension in Latin America: implications for the health system and patients in Mexico.

The aim of this study was to assess the costs and financial consequences of epidemiological changes in hypertension in Mexico. The cost evaluation method to estimate costs was based on instrumentation techniques. To estimate the epidemiological changes and expected cases of hypertension in 2010-2012, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. Comparing the economic impact, from 2010 to 2012 there will be a 24% increase in financial requirements (p < 0.05). The total cost of hypertension in 2011 will be US$ 5,733,350,291, including US$ 2,718,280,941 in direct costs and US$ 3,015,069,350 in indirect costs. If the risk factors and various healthcare models remain unaltered in the institutions analyzed here, the financial consequences will have a major impact on users' pockets, followed by social security providers and public healthcare providers. The authors suggest a revision in the planning, organization, and allocation of resources, particularly programs for health promotion and prevention of hypertension.

Epidemiological changes and financial consequences of hypertension in Latin America: implications for the health system and patients in Mexico / Cambios epidemiológicos y consecuencias financieras de la hipertensión en América Latina: implicaciones para el sistema de salud y los pacientes en México

The aim of this study was to assess the costs and financial consequences of epidemiological changes in hypertension in México. The cost evaluation method to estimate costs was based on instrumentation techniques. To estimate the epidemiological changes and expected cases of hypertension in 2010-2012, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. Comparing the economic impact, from 2010 to 2012 there will be a 24 percent increase in financial requirements (p < 0.05). The total cost of hypertension in 2011 will be US$ 5,733,350,291, including US$ 2,718,280,941 in direct costs and US$ 3,015,069,350 in indirect costs. If the risk factors and various healthcare models remain unaltered in the institutions analyzed here, the financial consequences will have a major impact on users' pockets, followed by social security providers and public healthcare providers. The authors suggest a revision in the planning, organization, and allocation of resources, particularly programs for health promotion and prevention of hypertension.

El objetivo fue identificar los costos y las consecuencias financieras de cambios epidemiológicos referentes a la hipertensión en México. El método de evaluación de los costos, para estimar los costos directos e indirectos, se basó en técnicas de instrumentación y de consenso. Para estimar los cambios epidemiológicos y de casos esperados para el período 2010-2012, tres modelos probabilísticos se construyeron de acuerdo a la técnica de Box-Jenkins. Al comparar el impacto económico en el 2010 frente a 2012 (p < 0.05), hay un incremento del 24 por ciento de las necesidades financieras. El importe total para la hipertensión en 2011 será de US$ 5.733.350.291. Se incluyen US$ 2.718.280.941 en costos directos y US$ 3.015.069.350 en costos indirectos. Si los factores de riesgo y los modelos de atención a la salud permanecen sin cambios, las consecuencias financieras serían de mayor impacto para los bolsillos de los usuarios, siguiendo en orden de importancia, los proveedores de seguridad social y los proveedores de asistencia pública.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90 percent increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93 percent increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

OBJETIVO: Avaliar os custos da atenção médica a doenças associadas ao tabagismo e o impacto econômico das mudanças epidemiológicas. MÉTODOS: Análise de série temporal no México (1994-2005) de sete intervenções médicas em relação a: doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica, câncer de pulmão com e sem intervenção cirúrgica, asma bronquial em fumantes e não-fumantes, tratamento com adesivos para deixar de fumar, tratamento com goma de mascar. As mudanças epidemiológicas esperadas e as necessidades financeiras para atender a demanda de serviços foram avaliadas pelos modelos probabilísticos de Box-Jenkins. Os custos foram determinados de acordo com método de instrumentação e a técnica de consenso. RESULTADOS: A comparação do impacto das mudanças epidemiológicas previstas para 2006 e 2008 mostrou incremento de 20 por cento a 90 por cento, dependendo do tipo de intervenção. O incremento nos custos da atenção médica foi de 25 por cento a 93 por cento. Há indícios que a demanda de serviços de saúde para as intervenções investigadas continuarão aumentando. CONCLUSÕES: Em termos econômicos, o aumento na quantidade de casos esperados refletem um fenômeno de competição interna em relação ao uso dos recursos adicionais entre atividades de promoção e prevenção da saúde relacionada ao tabagismo. Se não houver mudanças nos programas de prevenção, haverão desafios econômicos de alto impacto no financiamento dos sistemas de saúde.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Epidemiologic changes and economic burden of hypertension in Latin America: evidence from Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Costs of health services for hypertension and the financial consequences of epidemiologic changes in this disease are important concerns for health systems in Latin America. METHODS: We conducted longitudinal analyses of the economic impact of the epidemiologic changes on health care services for hypertension in the Mexican health care system. The cost evaluation method used was based on costing technique by production function and consensus techniques. To estimate the epidemiologic changes and financial consequences for the period 2005 to 2007, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. RESULTS: If changes are not implemented in prevention programs to reduce the effects of current risk factors, there will be increases in the number of patients with hypertension as well as in the financial burden to treat the disease. The amount allocated for hypertension in 2007, which will be 6% to 8% of the total health budget, is US$ 2,486,145,132. Of these, US$ 1,178,725,132 will be direct costs and US$ 1,307,420,000 will be indirect costs. Regarding epidemiologic changes for 2005 v 2007 (P < .05), an increase is expected, although results show a greater increase in insured populations. CONCLUSIONS: If the risk factors and different health programs remain as they currently are, the economic impact of expected epidemiologic changes on the social security system will be particularly strong. Another relevant financial factor is the appearance of internal competition in the allocation of financial resources among the main providers of health services for hypertension; this factor becomes even more complicated within each provider.

Economic consequences of epidemiological changes in diabetes in middle-income countries: the Mexican case.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the costs and economic consequences of expected changes in the demand for health care services for type 2 diabetes in the three main public institutions of the Mexican health care system. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The cost evaluation method to estimate direct and indirect costs was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the costs and epidemiological changes for 2003-2005, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. RESULTS: Comparing the economic impact in 2003 versus 2005 (P < 0.05), there is a 26% increase in financial requirements. The total amount for diabetes in 2005 (in U.S. dollars) will be 317,631,206, dollars including 140,410,816 dollars in direct costs and 177,220,390 dollars in indirect costs. The total direct costs, representing financial requirements to provide health care for expected cases of type 2 diabetes and its main complications in the three main public institutions in Mexico, up to 2005, will be 37,079,587 dollars for the Ministry of Health (or Secretaría de Salud [SSA], serving the uninsured population) and 103,331,235 dollars for the Mexican Social Security Institute, or Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), and the Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers, or Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales de los Trabajadores del Estado (ISSSTE), both of which serve the insured population. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that changes in the demand for health care services for patients with diabetes will continue with an increasing trend, mainly in the insured population. In economic terms, the results of direct and indirect costs are one of the main challenges to be solved to decrease the economic burden that diabetes represents for the population, the health care institutions, and for society as a whole.

[Economic evaluation of the demand of medical care for mental health in Mexico: schizophrenia and depression, 1996-2000]. / Evaluación económica de la demanda de atención médica para salud mental en México: esquizofrenia y depresión, 1996-2000.

Financing protection for both, users and providers of health care services is one of the main objectives of National Program of Health in Mexico, 2001-2006. In fact one of the elements of the present health care reform initiatives is need for the efficient allocation of financial resources, using resource allocation schemes by specific health care demands that combine both the economic, clinical and the epidemiological perspectives. The evaluation of such schemes has been approached in several ways; however, in the case of mental health services, there is dearth of studies that use economic assessment methods. Moreover, such studies are of limited scope, often a response to unmated health needs, disregarding the economic implication for health services production and financing and ensuing medical care market imbalances. This paper presents the results of an evaluative research work aimed to assess the average cost of depression and schizophrenia case management, the financial resources required to meet the health care demands by type of institution, period 1996-2000, in Mexico by type of health care provider. The case management average cost for schizophrenia was $211.00 US, and that for depression was $221.00 US. The demand of services for both conditions in each type of institution showed that the greatest relative demands (96% of the national total for depression and 94% of the national total for schizophrenia) occur in three institutions: IMSS, SSA and ISSSTE. The greatest demand of the health services for the two study condition corresponded to those insured by the IMSS, followed by those uninsured who use the SSA services, and those insured by the ISSSTE. The case management costs for mental conditions are in the middle range between hypertension and diabetes in the upper end, pneumonia and diarrhea in the lower end. The case managment costs of health care demands for the selected tracer conditions differ considerably among institutions for insure populations and those for uninsured populations, with a greater economic impact on-the former. Independent from differences found, these results allow the identification of economic evaluation indicators that could be used to design resource allocation schemes for each of the institutions included in this study.