Predictors on outcomes of cardiovascular disease of male patients in Malaysia using Bayesian network analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Despite extensive advances in medical and surgical treatment, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Identifying the significant predictors will help clinicians with the prognosis of the disease and patient management. This study aims to identify and interpret the dependence structure between the predictors and health outcomes of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) male patients in Malaysian setting. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry years 2006-2013, which consists of 18 hospitals across the country. PARTICIPANTS: 7180 male patients diagnosed with STEMI from the NCVD-ACS registry. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: A graphical model based on the Bayesian network (BN) approach has been considered. A bootstrap resampling approach was integrated into the structural learning algorithm to estimate probabilistic relations between the studied features that have the strongest influence and support. RESULTS: The relationships between 16 features in the domain of CVD were visualised. From the bootstrap resampling approach, out of 250, only 25 arcs are significant (strength value ≥0.85 and the direction value ≥0.50). Age group, Killip class and renal disease were classified as the key predictors in the BN model for male patients as they were the most influential variables directly connected to the outcome, which is the patient status. Widespread probabilistic associations between the key predictors and the remaining variables were observed in the network structure. High likelihood values are observed for patient status variable stated alive (93.8%), Killip class I on presentation (66.8%), patient younger than 65 (81.1%), smoker patient (77.2%) and ethnic Malay (59.2%). The BN model has been shown to have good predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The data visualisation analysis can be a powerful tool to understand the relationships between the CVD prognostic variables and can be useful to clinicians.

Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identifying risk factors associated with mortality is important in providing better prognosis to patients. Consistent with that, Bayesian approach offers a great advantage where it rests on the assumption that all model parameters are random quantities and hence can incorporate prior knowledge. Therefore, we aimed to develop a reliable model to identify risk factors associated with mortality among ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) male patients using Bayesian approach. METHODS: A total of 7180 STEMI male patients from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry for the years 2006-2013 were enrolled. In the development of univariate and multivariate logistic regression model for the STEMI patients, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied. The performance of the model was assessed through convergence diagnostics, overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination. RESULTS: A set of six risk factors for cardiovascular death among STEMI male patients were identified from the Bayesian multivariate logistic model namely age, diabetes mellitus, family history of CVD, Killip class, chronic lung disease and renal disease respectively. Overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination were considered good for the proposed model. CONCLUSION: Bayesian risk prediction model for CVD male patients identified six risk factors associated with mortality. Among the highest risks were Killip class (OR=18.0), renal disease (2.46) and age group (OR=2.43) respectively.

Characteristics and short-term outcomes of young women with acute myocardial infarction in Malaysia: a retrospective analysis from the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Database registry.

OBJECTIVE: Young women form a minority but an important group of patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) as it can potentially cause devastating physical and socioeconomic impact. This study was aimed to investigate the characteristics and outcomes of young women with MI in Malaysia. DESIGN: This is a retrospective analysis of women with ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI) from 18 hospitals across Malaysia using the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Database registry-acute coronary syndrome (NCVD-ACS). PARTICIPANTS: Women patients diagnosed with acute MI from year 2006 to 2013 were identified and divided into young (age ≤ 45, n=292) and older women (age >45, n=5580). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Comparison of demographics, clinical characteristics and in-hospital management was performed between young and older women. In-hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality were examined. RESULTS: Young women (mean age 39±4.68) made up 5% of women with MI and were predominantly of Malay ethnicities (53.8%). They have a higher tendency to present as STEMI compared with older women. Young women have significantly higher rates of family history of premature coronary artery disease (CAD) (20.5% vs 7.8% p<0.0001). The prevalence of risk factors, such as hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidaemia was high in both groups. The primary reperfusion strategy was thrombolysis with no significant differences observed in the choice of intervention for both groups. Other than aspirin, rates of prescriptions for evidence-based medications were similar with >80% prescribed statins and aspirin. The all-cause mortality rates of young women were lower for both in-hospital and 30 days, especially in those with STEMI with adjusted mortality ratio to the older group, was 1:9.84. CONCLUSION: Young women with MI were over-represented by Malays and those with a family history of premature CAD. Preventive measures are needed to reduce cardiovascular risks in young women. Although in-hospital management was similar, short-term mortality outcomes favoured young compared with older women.

In-hospital mortality of cardiogenic shock complicating ST-elevation myocardial infarction in Malaysia: a retrospective analysis of the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Database (NCVD) registry.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiogenic shock (CS) complicating ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) carries an extremely high mortality. The clinical pattern of this life threatening complication has never been described in Malaysian setting. This study is to investigate the incidence, clinical characteristics and outcome of STEMI patients with CS in our population. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of STEMI patients from 18 hospitals across Malaysia contributing to the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Database-acute coronary syndrome) registry (NCVD-ACS) year 2006-2013. PARTICIPANTS: 16 517 patients diagnosed of STEMI from 18 hospitals in Malaysia from the year 2006 to 2013. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: In-hospital and 30 day post-discharge mortality. RESULTS: CS complicates 10.6% of all STEMIs in this study. They had unfavourable premorbid conditions and poor outcomes. The in-hospital mortality rate was 34.1% which translates into a 7.14 times mortality risk increment compared with STEMI without CS. Intravenous thrombolysis remained as the main urgent reperfusion modality. Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) in CS conferred a 40% risk reduction over non-invasive therapy but were only done in 33.6% of cases. Age over 65, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic lung and kidney disease conferred higher risk of mortality. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates of CS complicating STEMI in Malaysia are high. In-hospital PCI confers a 40% mortality risk reduction but the rate of PCI among our patients with CS complicating STEMI is still low. Efforts are being made to increase access to invasive therapy for these patients.

Gender differences in mortality among ST elevation myocardial infarction patients in Malaysia from 2006 to 2013.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the leading causes of death in Malaysia. However, the prevalence of CAD in males is higher than in females and mortality rates are also different between the two genders. This suggest that risk factors associated with mortality between males and females are different, so we compared the clinical characteristics and outcome between male and female STEMI patients. OBJECTIVES: To identify the risk factors associated with mortality for each gender and compare differences, if any, among ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. SETTINGS: Hospitals across Malaysia. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed data on all STEMI patients in the National Cardiovascular Database-Acute coronary syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry for the years 2006 to 2013 (8 years). We collected demographic and risk factor data (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, smoking status, dyslipidaemia and family history of CAD). Significant variables from the univariate analysis were further analysed by a multivariate logistic analysis to identify risk factors and compare by gender. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Differential risk factors for each gender. RESULTS: For the 19484 patients included in the analysis, the mortality rate over the 8 years was significantly higher in females (15.4%) than males (7.5%) (P < .001). The univariate analysis showed that the majority of male patients < 65 years while females were >=65 years. The most prevalent risk factors for male patients were smoking (79.3%), followed by hypertension (54.9%) and diabetes mellitus (40.4%), while the most prevalent risk factors for female patients were hypertension (76.8%), followed by diabetes mellitus (60%) and dyslipidaemia (38.1%). The final model for male STEMI patients had seven significant variables: Killip class, age group, hypertension, renal disease, percutaneous coronary intervention and family history of CVD. For female STEMI patients, the significant variables were renal disease, smoking status, Killip class and age group. CONCLUSION: Gender differences existed in the baseline characteristics, associated risk factors, clinical presentation and outcomes among STEMI patients. For STEMI females, the rate of mortality was twice that of males. Once they reach menopausal age, when there is less protection from the estrogen hormone and there are other risk factors, menopausal females are at increased risk for STEMI. LIMITATION: Retrospective registry data with inter-hospital variation.

The bizzare phenomenon of smokers' paradox in the immediate outcome post acute myocardial infarction: an insight into the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry year 2006-2013.

BACKGROUND: 'Smoker's paradox' is a controversial phenomenon of an unexpected favourable outcome of smokers post acute myocardial infarction. There are conflicting evidences from the literature so far. We investigate for the existence of this phenomenon in our post acute myocardial infarction patients. METHODS: We analysed 12,442 active smokers and 10,666 never-smokers diagnosed with STEMI and NSTEMI from the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) year 2006-2013 from 18 hospitals across Malaysia. Comparisons in the baseline characteristics, clinical presentation, in-hospital treatment and short term clinical outcome were made between the two groups. To compare the clinical outcome, an extensive multivariate adjustment was made to estimate the allcause mortality risk ratios for both groups. RESULTS: The active smokers were younger (smokers 53.7 years vs non-smokers 62.3 years P < 0.001) and had lower cardiovascular risk burden and other co-morbidities. STEMI is more common in smokers and intravenous thrombolysis was the main reperfusion therapy in both groups. Smokers had a higher rate of in-hsopital coronary revascularisation in NSTEMI group (21.6 % smokers vs 16.7 % non-smokers P < 0.001) but similar to non-smokers in the STEMI group. Multivariate adjusted mortality risk ratios showed significantly lower mortality risks of smokers at both in-hospital (RR 0.510 [95 % CI 0.442-0.613]) and 30-day post discharge (RR 0.534 [95 % CI 0.437-0.621]). CONCLUSION: Smoking seems to be associated with a favourable outcome post myocardial infarction. The phenomenon of 'smoker's paradox' is in fact a reality in our patients population. The definitive explanation for this unexpected protective effect of smoking remains unclear.

Trends in evidence-based treatment and mortality for ST elevation myocardial infarction in Malaysia from 2006 to 2013: time for real change.

BACKGROUND: The administration of evidence-based pharmacotherapy and timely primary percutaneous coronary intervention have been shown to improve outcome in ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, implementation remains a challenge due to the limitations in facilities, expertise and funding. OBJECTIVES: To investigate adherence to guideline-based management and mortality of STEMI patients in Malaysia. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. SETTINGS: STEMI patients from 18 participating hospital across Malaysia included in the National Cardiovascular Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry year 2006 to 2013. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were categorized into four subgroups based on the year of admission (2006 to 2007, 2008 to 2009, 2010 to 2011 and 2012 to 2013). Baseline characteristics and clinical presentation, in-hospital pharmacotherapy, invasive revascularization and in-hospital/30-day mortality were analysed and compared between the subgroups. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Rate of in-hospital catheterization/percutaneous coronary intervention. RESULTS: The registry contained data on 19483 patients. Intravenous thrombolysis was the main reperfusion therapy. Although the overall rate of in-hospital catheterisation/PCI more than doubled over the study period, while the use of primary PCI only slowly increased from 7.6% in 2006/2007 to 13.6% in 2012/2013. The use of evidence-based oral therapies increased steadily over the years except for ACe-inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers. The adjusted risk ratios (RR) for in-hospital mortality for the four sub-groups have not shown any significant improvement. The 30-day adjusted risk ratios however showed a significant albeit gradual risk reduction (RR 0.773 95% CI 0.679-0.881, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Adherence to evidence-based treatment in STEMI in Malaysia is still poor especially in terms of the rate of primary PCI. Although there is a general trend toward reduced 30-day mortality, the reduction was only slight over the study period. Drastic effort is needed to improve adherence and clinical outcomes. LIMITATION: Retrospective registry data with inter-hospital variation.

Estimating the five-year survival of cervical cancer patients treated in hospital universiti sains malaysia.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the five-year survival among patients with cervical cancer treated in Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia. METHODS: One hundred and twenty cervical cancer patients diagnosed between 1st July 1995 and 30th June 2007 were identified. Data were obtained from medical records. The survival probability was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test was applied to compare the survival distribution between groups. RESULTS: The overall five-year survival was 39.7% [95%CI (Confidence Interval): 30.7, 51.3] with a median survival time of 40.8 (95%CI: 34.0, 62.0) months. The log-rank test showed that there were survival differences between the groups for the following variables: stage at diagnosis (p=0.005); and primary treatment (p=0.0242). Patients who were diagnosed at the latest stage (III-IV) were found to have the lowest survival, 18.4% (95%CI: 6.75, 50.1), compared to stage I and II where the five-year survival was 54.7% (95%CI: 38.7, 77.2) and 40.8% (95%CI: 27.7, 60.3), respectively. The five-year survival was higher in patients who received surgery [52.6% (95%CI: 37.5, 73.6)] as a primary treatment compared to the non-surgical group [33.3% (95%CI: 22.9, 48.4)]. CONCLUSION: The five-year survival of cervical cancer patients in this study was low. The survival of those diagnosed at an advanced stage was low compared to early stages. In addition, those who underwent surgery had higher survival than those who had no surgery for primary treatment.

Survey of Patients with Cervical Cancer in Hospital UniversitiSains Malaysia: Survival Data Analysis with Time-Dependent Covariate.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer among women in Malaysia. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of explanatory variables on survival time of cervical cancer patients receiving treatment at a hospital in Malaysia. METHODS: In this retrospective record review study, cervical cancer data obtained from Hospital UniversitiSains Malaysia (HUSM) was analysed. The data comprises of 120 patients who had been diagnosed as cervical cancer between 1(st) July 1995 and 30(th) June 2007, and obtained treatment from the hospital. The outcome variable was survival time (in months) from cervical cancer diagnosis to death. A stratified Weibull model was applied to study the effect of explanatory variable on survival time when there was time-dependent covariate in the model. RESULTS: Stage of disease and metastases were important prognostic variables. However, metastasis had been stratified because this variable did not satisfy the proportional hazard assumption. In without metastasis stratum, patients who were diagnosed at stage III & IV are at 2.30 times the risk of death as those in stage I & II. Meanwhile, in with metastasis stratum, patients in stage III & IV group had 3.53 times the hazard faced by patients in stage I & II. CONCLUSION: The prognosis of cervical cancer patients was dependent upon the stage at diagnosis, after the stratification of the metastasis variable. A poorer prognosis on survival was observed for patients in stage III & IV than those in stage I & II.