Population collapse of habitat-forming species in the Mediterranean: a long-term study of gorgonian populations affected by recurrent marine heatwaves.

Understanding the resilience of temperate reefs to climate change requires exploring the recovery capacity of their habitat-forming species from recurrent marine heatwaves (MHWs). Here, we show that, in a Mediterranean highly enforced marine protected area established more than 40 years ago, habitat-forming octocoral populations that were first affected by a severe MHW in 2003 have not recovered after 15 years. Contrarily, they have followed collapse trajectories that have brought them to the brink of local ecological extinction. Since 2003, impacted populations of the red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata (Risso, 1826) and the red coral Corallium rubrum (Linnaeus, 1758) have followed different trends in terms of size structure, but a similar progressive reduction in density and biomass. Concurrently, recurrent MHWs were observed in the area during the 2003-2018 study period, which may have hindered populations recovery. The studied octocorals play a unique habitat-forming role in the coralligenous assemblages (i.e. reefs endemic to the Mediterranean Sea home to approximately 10% of its species). Therefore, our results underpin the great risk that recurrent MHWs pose for the long-term integrity and functioning of these emblematic temperate reefs.

Regional and local environmental conditions do not shape the response to warming of a marine habitat-forming species.

The differential response of marine populations to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we combine common garden thermotolerance experiments in aquaria and population genetics to disentangle the factors driving the population response to thermal stress in a temperate habitat-forming species: the octocoral Paramuricea clavata. Using eight populations separated from tens of meters to hundreds of kilometers, which were differentially impacted by recent mortality events, we identify 25 °C as a critical thermal threshold. After one week of exposure at this temperature, seven of the eight populations were affected by tissue necrosis and after 30 days of exposure at this temperature, the mean % of affected colonies increased gradually from 3 to 97%. We then demonstrate the weak relation between the observed differential phenotypic responses and the local temperature regimes experienced by each population. A significant correlation was observed between these responses and the extent of genetic drift impacting each population. Local adaptation may thus be hindered by genetic drift, which seems to be the main driver of the differential response. Accordingly, conservation measures should promote connectivity and control density erosion in order to limit the impact of genetic drift on marine populations facing climate change.