ABSTRACT
The development of probabilistic maps associated with lava flow inundation is essential to assess hazard in open vent volcanoes, especially those that have highly urbanized flanks. In this study we present the new lava flow hazard map linked to the summit eruptions of Mt. Etna, which has been developed using a probabilistic approach that integrates statistical analyses of the volcanological historical data with numerical simulations of lava flows. The statistical analysis of volcanological data (including vent location, duration and lava volumes) about all summit eruptions occurred since 1998 has allowed us both to estimate the spatiotemporal probability of future vent opening and to extract the effusion rate curves for lava flow modelling. Numerical simulations were run using the GPUFLOW model on a 2022 Digital Surface Model derived from optical satellite images. The probabilistic approach has been validated through a back-analysis by calculating the fit between the expected probabilities of inundation and the lava flows actually emplaced during the 2020-2022 period. The obtained map shows a very high probability of inundation of lava flows emitted at vents linked to the South East Crater, according to the observation of the eruptive dynamics in the last decades.
ABSTRACT
A new sequence of eruptions occurred at Mt. Etna volcano during the first half of 2017, after almost 8 months of quiescence. These episodes had low-to-mild intensity and markedly differ from the violent paroxysms occurred at the Voragine Crater (VOR) during December 2015 and May 2016. Despite the general weak explosive nature of the eruptions, the activity during 2017 revealed unusually complex dynamics of magma ascent and interaction. Detection and investigation of such dynamics required a multidisciplinary approach in which bulk rock compositions, crystal chemical zoning, diffusion chronometry and ground deformation data have been combined. Bulk rock major and trace elements suggest that the 2017 magmas followed a differentiation path similar to that experienced by magmas erupted at Mt. Etna during the 2015-16 eruptions at VOR. Olivine core compositions and zoning patterns indicate the presence of multiple magmatic environments at depth that strictly interacted each other through some episodes of intrusion and mixing before and during the 2017 eruptive events. Timescales retrieved from diffusion chronometry on olivine normal and reverse zoning correlate well with the ground deformation stages detected through geodetic data and associated models, thus allowing to track the evolution through time of the 2017 volcanic activity. Combination of all petrological and geodetic observations supports the idea that dynamics of magma transfer driving the eruptive episodes of 2017 have been a direct consequence of the violent eruptions occurred at VOR on May 2016, which boosted the ascent of new magma from depth and improved the efficiency of the plumbing system to transfer it upward to the surface. We propose a mechanism of self-feeding replenishment of the volcano plumbing system during 2017, where magma recharge from depth is triggered by sudden unloading of the magma column consequential to the violent paroxysmal activity occurred on May 2016 at VOR.
