The utility of the surprise question: A useful tool for identifying patients nearing the last phase of life? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The surprise question is widely used to identify patients nearing the last phase of life. Potential differences in accuracy between timeframe, patient subgroups and type of healthcare professionals answering the surprise question have been suggested. Recent studies might give new insights. AIM: To determine the accuracy of the surprise question in predicting death, differentiating by timeframe, patient subgroup and by type of healthcare professional. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science and CINAHL were searched from inception till 22nd January 2021. Studies were eligible if they used the surprise question prospectively and assessed mortality. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value and c-statistic were calculated. RESULTS: Fifty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria, including 88.268 assessments. The meta-analysis resulted in an estimated sensitivity of 71.4% (95% CI [66.3-76.4]) and specificity of 74.0% (95% CI [69.3-78.6]). The negative predictive value varied from 98.0% (95% CI [97.7-98.3]) to 88.6% (95% CI [87.1-90.0]) with a mortality rate of 5% and 25% respectively. The positive predictive value varied from 12.6% (95% CI [11.0-14.2]) with a mortality rate of 5% to 47.8% (95% CI [44.2-51.3]) with a mortality rate of 25%. Seven studies provided detailed information on different healthcare professionals answering the surprise question. CONCLUSION: We found overall reasonable test characteristics for the surprise question. Additionally, this study showed notable differences in performance within patient subgroups. However, we did not find an indication of notable differences between timeframe and healthcare professionals.

Reduced parenchymal cerebral blood flow is associated with greater progression of brain atrophy: The SMART-MR study.

Global cerebral hypoperfusion may be involved in the aetiology of brain atrophy; however, long-term longitudinal studies on this relationship are lacking. We examined whether reduced cerebral blood flow was associated with greater progression of brain atrophy. Data of 1165 patients (61 ± 10 years) from the SMART-MR study, a prospective cohort study of patients with arterial disease, were used of whom 689 participated after 4 years and 297 again after 12 years. Attrition was substantial. Total brain volume and total cerebral blood flow were obtained from magnetic resonance imaging scans and expressed as brain parenchymal fraction (BPF) and parenchymal cerebral blood flow (pCBF). Mean decrease in BPF per year was 0.22% total intracranial volume (95% CI: -0.23 to -0.21). Mean decrease in pCBF per year was 0.24 ml/min per 100 ml brain volume (95% CI: -0.29 to -0.20). Using linear mixed models, lower pCBF at baseline was associated with a greater decrease in BPF over time (p = 0.01). Lower baseline BPF, however, was not associated with a greater decrease in pCBF (p = 0.43). These findings indicate that reduced cerebral blood flow is associated with greater progression of brain atrophy and provide further support for a role of cerebral blood flow in the process of neurodegeneration.

Improving pain management in childhood acute otitis media in general practice: a cluster randomised controlled trial of a GP-targeted educational intervention.

BACKGROUND: Pain management in acute otitis media (AOM) is often suboptimal, potentially leading to unnecessary discomfort, GP reconsultation, and antibiotic prescribing. AIM: To assess the effectiveness of a GP-targeted educational intervention to improve pain management in children with AOM. DESIGN AND SETTING: Pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT). GPs in 37 practices (intervention n = 19; control n = 18) across the Netherlands recruited 224 children with GP-confirmed AOM and ear pain (intervention n = 94; control n = 130) between February 2015 and May 2018. METHOD: GPs in practices allocated to the intervention group were trained (online and face-to-face) to discuss pain management with parents using an information leaflet, and prompted to prescribe weight-appropriate dosed paracetamol. Ibuprofen was additionally prescribed if pain control was still insufficient. GPs in the control group provided usual care. RESULTS: Mean ear pain scores over the first 3 days were similar between groups (4.66 versus 4.36; adjusted mean difference = -0.05; 95% confidence intervals [CI] = -0.93 to 0.83), whereas analgesic use, in particular ibuprofen, was higher in the intervention group. The total number of antibiotic prescriptions during the 28-day follow-up was similar (mean rate 0.43 versus 0.47; adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 0.97; 95% CI = 0.68 to 1.38). Parents of children in the intervention group were more likely to reconsult for AOM-related complaints (mean rate 0.70 versus 0.41; aRR 1.73; 95% CI = 1.14 to 2.62). CONCLUSION: An intervention aimed at improving pain management for AOM increases analgesic use, particularly ibuprofen, but does not provide symptomatic benefit. GPs are advised to carefully weigh the potential benefits of ibuprofen against its possible harms.

Overdiagnosis of heart failure in primary care: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Access to echocardiography in primary care is limited, but is necessary to accurately diagnose heart failure (HF). AIM: To determine the proportion of patients with a GP's diagnosis of HF who really have HF. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional study of patients in 30 general practices with a GP's diagnosis of heart failure, based on the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC) code K77, between June and November 2011. METHOD: Electronic medical records of the patients' GPs were scrutinised for information on the diagnosis. An expert panel consisting of two cardiologists and an experienced GP used all available diagnostic information, and established the presence or absence of HF according to the criteria of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) HF guidelines. RESULTS: In total, 683 individuals had a GP's diagnosis of HF. The mean age was 77.9 (SD 11.4) years, and 42.2% were male. Of these 683, 79.6% received cooperative care from a cardiologist. In 73.5% of cases, echocardiography was available for panel re-evaluation. Based on consensus opinion of the panel, 434 patients (63.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 59.9 to 67.1) had definite HF, of which 222 (32.5%, 95% CI = 30.9 to 34.1) had HF with a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), 207 (30.3%, 95% CI = 29.0 to 31.6) had HF with a preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), and five (0.7%, 95% CI = 1.2 to 2.6) had isolated right-sided HF. In 17.3% of cases (95% CI = 14.4 to 20.0), the panel considered HF absent, and in 19.2% (95% CI = 16.3 to 22.2) the diagnosis remained uncertain. CONCLUSION: More than one-third of primary care patients labelled with HF may not have HF, and such overdiagnosis may result in inadequate patient management.

Poor Performance Among Trainees in a Dutch Postgraduate GP Training Program.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Poor performance among trainees is an important issue, for patient safety and economic reasons. While early identification might enhance remediation measures, we explored the frequency, nature, and risk factors of poor performance in a Dutch postgraduate general practitioner (GP) training program. METHODS: All trainees who started the GP training between 2005 and 2007 were included. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to examine associations between individual characteristics; early assessments of competencies and knowledge, training process characteristics (eg, illness, maternal leave), and the outcome poor performance; sub-analyses were performed for each year. RESULTS: A total of 215 trainees started the 3-year GP program, and 49 (22.8%) exhibited poor performance (in one or more years). In the first and second years, problem areas among poor performers were equally distributed across the roles of "medical expert," "communicator," and "professional." In the third year, shortcomings in "professionalism" were the most common problem. Increasing age was a risk factor for poor performance as were insufficient scores in communication and knowledge. Poor performance in the previous year was a risk factor for poor performance in the second and third years; OR=4.20 (CI=1.31--13.47) and OR=5.40 (CI=1.58--18.47), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Poor performance is prevalent but primarily occurring within a single training year. This finding suggests that trainees are capable of solving trainee problems. Increasing age, insufficient assessment scores early in the training, and poor performance in a previous year constitute risk factors for poor performance.

Suspected acute coronary syndrome in the emergency room: Limited added value of heart type fatty acid binding protein point of care or ELISA tests: The FAME-ER (Fatty Acid binding protein in Myocardial infarction Evaluation in the Emergency Room) study.

BACKGROUND: Timely recognition of acute coronary syndrome remains a challenge as many biomarkers, including troponin, remain negative in the first hours following the onset of chest pain. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP), a cardiac biomarker with potential value immediately post symptom onset. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective monocentre diagnostic accuracy study of H-FABP bedside point of care (CardioDetect®) and ELISA tests in acute coronary syndrome suspected patients presenting within 24 hours of symptom onset to the emergency department, in addition to clinical findings, electrocardiography and the currently recommended biomarker high sensitivity troponin-T (hs-cTnT). The final diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome was adjudicated by two independent cardiologists, blinded to H-FABP results. Acute coronary syndrome was diagnosed in 149 (32.9%) of 453 unselected patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (56% men, mean age 62.6 years). Negative predictive values were similar for H-FABP point of care and ELISA tests (79% vs. 78% respectively), but inferior to initial hs-cTnT (negative predictive value 86%). The addition of H-FABP point of care results to hs-cTnT increased the negative predictive value to 89%. In a multivariable logistic regression model, H-FABP point of care and ELISA tests yielded relevant diagnostic information in addition to clinical findings and ECG (likelihood ratio test p<0.001) and increased area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0.82 vs. 0.84 and 0.84). This added value attenuated, however, after inclusion of hs-cTnT in the diagnostic model (AUC 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: In patients suspected of acute coronary syndrome presenting to the emergency department, H-FABP testing improves diagnostic accuracy in addition to clinical findings and electrocardiography. H-FABP, however, has no additional diagnostic value when hs-cTnT measurements are also available.

Validity of a clinical model to predict influenza in patients presenting with symptoms of lower respiratory tract infection in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Valid clinical predictors of influenza in patients presenting with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) symptoms would provide adequate patient information and reassurance. AIM: Assessing the validity of an existing diagnostic model (Flu Score) to detect influenza in LRTI patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: A European diagnostic study recruited 1801 adult primary care patients with LRTI-like symptoms existing ≤7 days between October and April 2007-2010. METHOD: History and physical examination findings were recorded and nasopharyngeal swabs taken. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for influenza A/B was performed as reference test. Diagnostic accuracy of the Flu Score (1× onset <48 hours + 2× myalgia + 1× chills or sweats + 2× fever and cough) was expressed as area under the curve (AUC), calibration slopes and likelihood ratios (LRs). RESULTS: A total of 273 patients (15%) had influenza on PCR. The AUC of the Flu Score during winter months was 0.66 [95% CI (95% confidence internal) 0.63-0.70]. During peak influenza season, both influenza prevalence (24%) and AUC were higher [0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.76], but calibration remained poor. The Flu Score assigned 64% of the patients as 'low-risk' (10% had influenza, LR - 0.6). About 12% were classified as 'high risk' of whom 32% had influenza (LR + 2.7). During peak influenza season, 60% and 14% of patients were classified as low and high risk, respectively, with influenza prevalences being 14% (LR - 0.5) and 50% (LR + 3.2). CONCLUSION: The Flu-Score attributes a small subgroup of patients with a high influenza risk (prevalence 32%). However, clinical usefulness is limited because this group is small and the association between predicted and observed risks is poor. Considerable diagnostic imprecision remains when it comes to differentiating those with influenza on clinical grounds from the many other causes of LRTI in primary care. New point of care tests are required that accurately, rapidly and cost effectively detect influenza in patients with respiratory tract symptoms in primary care.