ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Acute cholangitis (AC) complicated by septic shock is associated with 40% mortality. The best screening method for diagnosing sepsis in patients with AC is unknown. In this study, we aimed to compare the discriminative powers of systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria (SIRS test) and the 2018 Tokyo Guidelines for moderate cholangitis (TG18 test) in screening AC patients for sepsis and to estimate their predictive abilities. METHODS: This was a retrospective diagnostic accuracy study in which the TG18 and SIRS tests were applied to two groups of patients; 52 patients with 70 hospital admissions had AC with shock index ≥0.7 and 46 patients with 57 hospital admissions had AC with shock index <0.7, uncomplicated choledocholithiasis, obstructive jaundice and biliary stent removal. RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity for the TG18 test in identifying AC patients with sepsis were 69% and 68%, respectively. The SIRS test applied to the same patient cohort yielded 93% sensitivity and 79% specificity. The SIRS test had a larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 86% and 69%, respectively (P = 0.0004). With a sepsis prevalence of 23% in patients with biliary tract infections, the positive predictive value (PPV) for the SIRS test was 57% (95% confidence interval (CI) 44-69%) and the negative predictive value was 97% (95% CI 94-99%). The PPV and negative predictive value for the TG18 criteria were 39% (95% CI 30-50%) and 88% (95% CI 83-92%), respectively. CONCLUSION: The SIRS test had better discriminative power in identifying AC patients with sepsis than the TG18 criteria, but had a low PPV.
