ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: In chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, the risk of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is highly variable. In 2011, Tangri et al. developed the kidney failure risk equations (KFRE) to predict the 2 and 5-year probability of requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT). The KFRE is an easily calculated 4-variable equation which has been extensively validated in multiple cohorts. The aim of this study was to validate this risk score in a Portuguese cohort. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of CKD patients stage 3-5 referred for nephrology consult at Centro Hospitalar Universitário Lisboa Norte during the first 6 months of 2018. Age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria were assessed. The 4-variable kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) calibrated to a non-North American population was calculated. Requirement of KRT was assessed in a 2-year follow-up. We assessed the Cox logistic regression method of the KFRE to predict KRT requirement and the discriminatory ability was determined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A cut-off value was defined as that with the highest validity. RESULTS: 360 patients were included and 54.4% were male. Mean age was 74.9±12.2 years, serum creatinine was 1.97±0.84mg/dL, eGFR was 33.4±12.13ml/min/1.73m2 and albuminuria was 571.1±848.3mg/g. Mean calculated risk score was 6.2±11.2%. Twenty-three patients required KRT (6.4%) in the two-year follow-up. The hazard ratio was 1.1 [95% CI (1.06-1.12), p<0.001] for the 2-year risk of KRT. The KFRE predicted progression to KRT requirement with an auROC of 0.903, [95% CI (0.86-0.95), p<0.001], with a sensitivity 91.3% and specificity of 71.8%. The optimal KFRE cut-off was >4.5% for 2-year nephrologist referral, with an hazard ratio of HR 26.7 [95% CI (6.15-116.3), p<0.001] for 2-year risk of KRT requirement. DISCUSSION: We have independently externally validated the 2-year KFRE and shown that it has excellent discrimination. The KFRE should be incorporated in clinical care of patients with CKD to improve patient-clinician dialogue and provide guidance on timing of referral for nephrology evaluation and planning for dialysis access.
