Outcomes of latent rheumatic heart disease: External validation of a simplified score in patients with and without secondary prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Secondary antibiotic prophylaxis reduces progression of latent rheumatic heart disease (RHD) but not all children benefit. Improved risk stratification could refine recommendations following positive screening. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a previously developed echocardiographic risk score to predict mid-term outcomes among children with latent RHD. METHODS: We included children who completed the GOAL, a randomized trial of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis among children with latent RHD in Uganda. Outcomes were determined by a 4-member adjudication panel. We applied the point-based score, consisting of 5 variables (mitral valve (MV) anterior leaflet thickening (3 points), MV excessive leaflet tip motion (3 points), MV regurgitation jet length ≥ 2 cm (6 points), aortic valve focal thickening (4 points) and any aortic regurgitation (5 points)), to panel results. Unfavorable outcome was defined as progression of diagnostic category (borderline to definite, mild definite to moderate/severe definite), worsening valve involvement or remaining with mild definite RHD. RESULTS: 799 patients (625 borderline and 174 definite RHD) were included, with median follow-up of 24 months. At total 116 patients (14.5%) had unfavorable outcome per study criteria, 57.8% not under prophylaxis. The score was strongly associated with unfavorable outcome (HR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37, p < 0.001). Unfavorable outcome rates in low (≤6 points), intermediate (7-9 points) and high-risk (≥10 points) children at follow-up were 11.8%, 30.4%, and 42.2%, (p < 0.001) respectively (C-statistic = 0.64 (95% CI 0.59-0.69)). CONCLUSIONS: The simple risk score provided an accurate prediction of RHD status at 2-years, showing a good performance in a population with milder RHD phenotypes.

Cytokine gene functional polymorphisms and phenotypic expression as predictors of evolution from latent to clinical rheumatic heart disease.

INTRODUCTION: Inflammation associated with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is influenced by gene polymorphisms and inflammatory cytokines. There are currently no immunologic and genetic markers to discriminate latent versus clinical patients, critical to predict disease evolution. Employing machine-learning, we searched for predictors that could discriminate latent versus clinical RHD, and eventually identify latent patients that may progress to clinical disease. METHODS: A total of 212 individuals were included, 77 with latent, 100 with clinical RHD, and 35 healthy controls. Circulating levels of 27 soluble factors were evaluated using Bio-Plex ProTM® Human Cytokine Standard 27-plex assay. Gene polymorphism analyses were performed using RT-PCR for the following genes: IL2, IL4, IL6, IL10, IL17A, TNF and IL23. RESULTS: Serum levels of all cytokines were higher in clinical as compared to latent RHD patients, and in those groups than in controls. IL-4, IL-8, IL-1RA, IL-9, CCL5 and PDGF emerged in the final multivariate model as predictive factors for clinical, compared with latent RHD. IL-4, IL-8 and IL1RA had the greater power to predict clinical RHD. In univariate analysis, polymorphisms in IL2 and IL4 were associated with clinical RHD and in the logistic analysis, IL6 (GG + CG), IL10 (CT + TT), IL2 (CA + AA) and IL4 (CC) genotypes were associated with RHD. CONCLUSION: Despite higher levels of all cytokines in clinical RHD patients, IL-4, IL-8 and IL-1RA were the best predictors of clinical disease. An association of polymorphisms in IL2, IL4, IL6 and IL10 genes and clinical RHD was observed. Gene polymorphism and phenotypic expression of IL-4 accurately discriminate latent versus clinical RHD, potentially instructing clinical management.

Heart rate variability as predictor of mortality in sepsis: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a serious medical condition with increasing prevalence and high mortality. The role of the autonomic nervous system in pathophysiology of sepsis has been increasingly researched. The objective of this study is to evaluate the Heart rate variability (HRV) as a predictor of mortality in septic patients. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort of patients diagnosed with sepsis. Patient recruitment was carried out at ICU in tertiary university hospital between March 2012 and February 2014. Clinical data and laboratory exams were collected at admission. Each patient underwent a 20-minute Holter and a 24-hour Holter on the first day of enrollment. The primary outcome was the 28-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 63 patients were included. Patients were categorized into nonsurvivor group (n = 16) or survivor group (n = 47) depending on this endpoint. Survivors were younger (48.6 years vs. 63.0 years), had better renal function and lower values in severity scores (APACHE II and SOFA) compared to nonsurvivors. In the 20-minute Holter, SDNN, Total Power, VLF Power, LF Power and LF/HF of nonsurvivors were significantly lower than those of survivors (p = <0.001, p = 0.003, p = 0.002, p = 0.006, p = 0.009 respectively). ROC curve of SDNN was built, showing area under the curve of 0.772 (0.638-0.906) for mortality. The value of 17ms was chosen as best SDNN cutoff to discriminate survivors and nonsurvivors. In the Cox proportional regression, adjusted for SOFA score and for APACHE II, a SDNN ≤ 17ms was associated with a greater risk of death, with hazard ratios of 6.3 (1.4-28.0; p = 0.015) and 5.5 (1,2-24,8; p = 0.027), respectively. The addition of the dichotomized SDNN to the SOFA model reduced AIC and increased the concordance statistic and the R2, indicating that predictive power of the SDNN + SOFA model is better than predictive power of SOFA only. CONCLUSIONS: Several HRV parameters are reduced in nonsurviving septic patients. SDNN ≤17 is a risk factor for death in septic patients, even after adjusting for severity scores.

Factors associated with compliance to AHA/ACC performance measures in a myocardial infarction system of care in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate compliance with American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) performance measures for adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to investigate the factors associated with compliance, in an AMI System of Care in Brazil. DESIGN: Observational longitudinal study. SETTING: A high-complexity University Hospital, part of the AMI System of Care implemented in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, in 2010. PARTICIPANTS: Of note, 1129 patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) admitted to a single center over 36 months (between 2011 and 2014). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Compliance with 13 pre-specified AHA/ACC AMI performance measures was evaluated for patients with AMI, observing exclusion criteria and appropriate numerators and denominators. Median compliance was calculated and variables independently associated with compliance rates were evaluated. RESULTS: Median age was 60 (51/68) years, 67.7% male, 69.8% presented with STEMI and hospital mortality was 8.7%. Median compliance with performance measures was 83% (75/88). Among patients with STEMI, 56% received reperfusion therapy. Overall, 67.3% of patients complied with ≥80% of quality measures. Factors independently associated with better compliance were later date of presentation (semester), likely reflecting ongoing training (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.28, P < 0.001), male gender (OR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.00-1.76, P < 0.046), Killip I/II on admission (OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.36-2.80, P < 0.001) and diagnosis of NSTEMI (OR = 5.0, 95% CI: 3.51-7.11, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Compliance with AHA/ACC AMI performance measures remains below target in Brazil, but the time trends observed suggest improvement. Continuing education, reduction of system delays and prioritizing high-risk groups are needed to optimize AMI systems of care and improve patient outcomes.