Burden of leishmaniasis in Brazil and federated units, 1990-2016: Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: The study presents estimates for the burden of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and cutaneous and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (CML) in Brazil and its 27 federated units using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2016. METHODOLOGY: We report the incidence, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for leishmaniasis in Brazil from 1990 to 2016. The metrics are presented as age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants with their respective uncertainty intervals (95%UI) and relative percentages of change. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The age-standardized incidence rate of leishmaniasis decreased 48.5% from 1990 (71.0, 95%UI 24.3-150.7) to 2016 (36.5, 95%UI 24.7-50.9), whereas the age-standardized DALY increased 83.6% over the studied period from 12.2 (95%UI 7.9-18.8) to 22.4 (95%UI 13.3-36.2). The age-standardized incidence rate and YLL for VL increased by 52.9% and 108% from 1990 to 2016, respectively. Considering CML, the age-standardized incidence rate and YLD decreased by 51% and 31.8% respectively for the same period. For VL, similar profiles for male and female were observed, with YLL and DALY increasing over time; with males presenting slightly higher values. The highest YLL rates were among "under 1-year old" children, which increased 131.2% from 1990 to 2016. Regarding CML, the highest values of YLD and DALY were verified among males, and YLD values showed a similar profile, with rates increasing with age. The VL burden increased in some states in the Northeast and Southeast regions and decreased for CML in some Northern states. CONCLUSION: The increase of VL burden over the study period might be associated with the difficulties in controlling the disease spread. Information regarding the weight of VL and CML, including the death and disability tolls that they cause, highlights the impact of these neglected diseases on public health and the importance of effective prevention and treatment.

Leishmania infantum: illness, transmission profile and risk factors for asymptomatic infection in an endemic metropolis in Brazil.

To evaluate the distribution of asymptomatic infection by Leishmania infantum in a metropolis in Brazil with different relative risks (RRs) for disease and risk factors associated with the infection, an ecological study was conducted using a Bayesian approach to estimate the RR of human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) based on cases between 2008 and 2011. The areas were categorized and selected according to disease incidence: low (area-1), medium (area-2) and high (area-3). Cross-sectional study enrolling 935 children was used to estimate the prevalence of infection by L. infantum. Volunteers from these three areas were tested for L. infantum infection by ELISA (rK39 and soluble antigens). Infection prevalence rates were estimated and compared with the RR of disease. Multilevel logistic regression model evaluated the relationship between infection and the analysed variables. The RR of HVL was distributed heterogeneously in the municipality. The infection prevalence rates were: 34·9% in area-1; 29·3% in area-2; and 33·6% in area-3, with no significant differences between these areas. The variables 'Presence of backyards in the neighbourhood' and 'Younger children' were associated with L. infantum infection. We conclude that infection by L. infantum affects a significant proportion of the infant population regardless of the RR of disease.

Factors associated with death from dengue in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil: historical cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the clinical and epidemiological profiles of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), dengue shock syndrome (DSS) and complicated dengue cases and deaths from 2008 to 2010 that occurred in the state of Minas Gerais, south-eastern Brazil, and to identify factors associated with death from dengue. METHODS: Historical cohort study using data from the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases. A descriptive analysis of the DHF, DSS and complicated dengue cases and deaths was performed; the incidence, mortality and case-fatality rates were estimated. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with death from dengue. Comorbidities were not included in the analysis because the information system does not contain such data. RESULTS: During the study period, 2214 DHF, DSS and complicated dengue cases were reported, including 156 deaths. The annual case-fatality rates for DHF/DSS and complicated dengue cases in the period of 2008-2010 were 7.3%, 4.8% and 7.9%, respectively. The factors associated with death from dengue included residence in a municipality with a population of fewer than 100,000 inhabitants [odds ratio (OR) 2.46; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.71-3.55], age over 65 years (OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.99-4.68) and plasma leakage (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.16-2.46). CONCLUSIONS: The results support the importance of plasma leakage as a warning sign associated with death from dengue as well as the signs and symptoms that allow the diagnosis of DHF. Moreover, our findings suggest that increased attention is necessary for individuals over 65 years of age and in municipalities with populations under 100,000 inhabitants to ensure a better quality of care during the management of severe patients of dengue in these locations. Differences in the interpretation of the DHF definition have hindered the comparison of data from different countries; it can improve from the WHO 2009 dengue classification.

Relative risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: a spatial analysis in urban area.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. METHODOLOGY: This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas) of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412), were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features) and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146). The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities.

Early clinical manifestations associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis.

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, lethality from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is high and few studies have addressed prognostic factors. This historical cohort study was designed to investigate the prognostic factors for death from VL in Belo Horizonte (Brazil). METHODOLOGY: The analysis was based on data of the Reportable Disease Information System-SINAN (Brazilian Ministry of Health) relating to the clinical manifestations of the disease. During the study period (2002-2009), the SINAN changed platform from a Windows to a Net-version that differed with respect to some of the parameters collected. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify variables associated with death from VL, and these were included in prognostic score. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Model 1 (period 2002-2009; 111 deaths from VL and 777 cured patients) included the variables present in both SINAN versions, whereas Model 2 (period 2007-2009; 49 deaths from VL and 327 cured patients) included variables common to both SINAN versions plus the additional variables included in the Net version. In Model 1, the variables significantly associated with a greater risk of death from VL were weakness (OR 2.9; 95%CI 1.3-6.4), Leishmania-HIV co-infection (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.2-4.8) and age ≥60 years (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.5-4.3). In Model 2, the variables were bleeding (OR 3.5; 95%CI 1.2-10.3), other associated infections (OR 3.2; 95%CI 1.3-7.8), jaundice (OR 10.1; 95%CI 3.7-27.2) and age ≥60 years (OR 3.1; 95%CI 1.4-7.1). The prognosis score was developed using the variables associated with death from VL of the latest version of the SINAN (Model 2). The predictive performance of which was evaluated by sensitivity (71.4%), specificity (73.7%), positive and negative predictive values (28.9% and 94.5%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (75.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge regarding the factors associated with death from VL may improve clinical management of patients and contribute to lower mortality.