Bayesian Modeling and Estimation of Spatial Risk for Hospitalization and Mortality from Ischemic Heart Disease in Paraná, Brazil.

Objective: Despite significant advancements in understanding risk factors and treatment strategies, ischemic heart disease (IHD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide, particularly within specific regions in Brazil, where the disease is a burden. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the risk of hospitalization and mortality from IHD in the state of Paraná (Brazil), using spatial analysis to identify areas with higher risk based on socioeconomic, demographic and health variables. Methods: This is an ecological study based on secondary and retrospective IHD hospitalization and mortality data obtained from the Brazilian Hospitalization and Mortality Information Systems during the 2010-2021 period. Data were analyzed for 399 municipalities and 22 health regions in the state of Paraná. To assess the spatial patterns of the disease and identify relative risk (RR) areas, we constructed a risk model by Bayesian inference using the R-INLA and SpatialEpi packages in R software. Results: A total of 333,229 hospitalizations and 73,221 deaths occurred in the analyzed period, and elevated RR of hospitalization (RR = 27.412, CI 21.801; 34.466) and mortality (RR = 15.673, CI 2.148; 114.319) from IHD occurred in small-sized municipalities. In addition, medium-sized municipalities also presented elevated RR of hospitalization (RR = 6.533, CI 1.748; 2.006) and mortality (RR = 6.092, CI 1.451; 2.163) from IHD. Hospitalization and mortality rates were higher in white men aged 40-59 years. A negative association was found between Municipal Performance Index (IPDM) and IHD hospitalization and mortality. Conclusion: Areas with increased risk of hospitalization and mortality from IHD were found in small and medium-sized municipalities in the state of Paraná, Brazil. These results suggest a deficit in health care attention for IHD cases in these areas, potentially due to a low distribution of health care resources.

Characterization of critically ill adult burn patients admitted to a Brazilian intensive care unit.

INTRODUCTION: To characterize the evolution of clinical and physiological variables in severe adult burn patients admitted to a Brazilian burn ICU, we hypothesized that characteristics of survivors are different from non-survivors after ICU admission. METHODS: A five-year observational study was carried out. The clinical characteristics, physiological variables, and outcomes were collected during this period. RESULTS: A total of 163 patients required ICU support and were analyzed. Median age was 34 [25,47] years. Total burn surface area (TBSA) was 29 [18,43]%, and hospital mortality rate was 42%. Lethal burn area at which fifty percent of patients died (LA50%) was 36.5%. Median SAPS3 was 41 [34,54]. Factors associated with hospital mortality were analyzed in three steps, the first incorporated ICU admission data, the second incorporated first day ICU data, and the third incorporated data from the first week of an ICU stay. We found a significant association between hospital mortality and SAPS3 [OR(95%CI)=1.114(1.062-1.168)], TBSA [OR(95%CI)=1.043(1.010-1.076)], suicide attempts [OR(95%CI)=8.126(2.284-28.907)], and cumulative fluid balance per liter within the first week [OR(95%CI)=1.090(1.030-1.154)]. Inhalation injury was present in 45% of patients, and it was not significantly associated with hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of an ICU in a developing country, the mortality rate of critically ill burn patients was high and the TBSA was an independent risk factor for death. SAPS3 at admission and cumulative fluid balance in the first seven days, were also associated with unfavorable outcomes. The implementation of judicious fluid management after an acute resuscitation phase may help to improve outcomes in this scenario.