Social inequalities and COVID-19 mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality is often associated with a country's health-services structure and social inequality. This study aimed to characterize social inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in São Paulo, the most populous city in Brazil and Latin America. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study, including COVID-19 deaths among São Paulo residents from March to September 2020. Age-standardized mortality rates and unadjusted rate ratios (RRs) [with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] were estimated by race, sex, age group, district of residence, household crowding, educational attainment, income level and percentage of households in subnormal areas in each district. Time trends in mortality were assessed using the Joinpoint model. RESULTS: Males presented an 84% increase in COVID-19 mortality compared with females (RR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.79-1.90). Higher mortality rates were observed for Blacks (RR = 1.77, 95% CI 1.67-1.88) and mixed (RR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.37-1.47) compared with Whites, whereas lower mortality was noted for Asians (RR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.58-0.68). A positive gradient was found for all socio-economic indicators, i.e. increases in disparities denoted by less education, more household crowding, lower income and a higher concentration of subnormal areas were associated with higher mortality rates. A decrease in mortality over time was observed in all racial groups, but it started earlier among Whites and Asians. CONCLUSION: Our results reveal striking social inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in São Paulo, exposing structural inequities in Brazilian society that were not addressed by the governmental response to COVID-19. Without an equitable response, COVID-19 will further exacerbate current social inequalities in São Paulo.

Agreement between antenatal gestational age by ultrasound and clinical records at birth: A prospective cohort in the Brazilian Amazon.

This study aimed to assess agreement between antenatal estimates of gestational age by ultrasound and clinical records at birth in the Brazilian Amazon. Ultrasound examinations were scheduled during the second trimester for 578 pregnant women prospectively screened at primary health care units, following a standardized protocol for image quality control. A multistage algorithm was used to assess the best estimate of gestational age during the antenatal period, considering reliability of last menstrual period (LMP) and acceptable differences in relation to ultrasound estimates derived from fetal biparietal diameter and femur length. Agreement of antenatal estimates of gestational age confirmed by ultrasound and clinical records at birth was analyzed with Bland-Altman plots and kappa coefficients (preterm and postterm births). Overall, ultrasound examinations presented high quality (>90% of satisfactory images), and were adopted as the best estimate of gestational age among 83.4% of pregnant women, confirming reliable LMP in the remaining proportion. On average, difference in gestational age between antenatal estimates and clinical records was 0.43 week (95% CI: 0.32, 0.53). Classification of preterm births had a good agreement (kappa: 0.82, p<0.001), but a poor performance was observed for postterm births (kappa: -0.06, p = 0.92). Higher differences in gestational age were noted for participants with >11 years of education and cases of caesarean deliveries. In conclusion, high-quality ultrasound images from the second trimester of pregnancy based the assessment of gestational age, while reliability of LMP was limited. Information from clinical records at birth presented an acceptable agreement on average and for classification of preterm births, which is relevant for properly interpreting perinatal outcomes. Discrepancies in caesarean deliveries may warrant further investigation.

Early determinants of linear growth and weight attained in the first year of life in a malaria endemic region.

We investigated linear growth and weight attained among 772 children at 10-15 months of age in the first population-based birth cohort in the Brazilian Amazon. Sociodemographic, maternal and birth characteristics were collected in interviews soon after birth at baseline. Anthropometric evaluation was conducted at 10-15 months. Multiple linear regression models were fitted for length-for-age (LAZ) and body mass index (BMI)-for-age Z scores (BAZ), considering a hierarchical conceptual framework with determinants at distal, intermediate and proximal levels, with adjustment for the child's sex and age. Mean LAZ and BAZ were 0.31 (SD: 1.13) and 0.35 (SD: 1.06), respectively. Overall, 2.2% of children were stunted and 6.6% overweight. Among socioeconomic factors, household wealth index was positively associated with LAZ (p for trend = 0.01), while children whose families received assistance from the Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer program were 0.16 Z score thinner (95% CI: -0.31, -0.00). Maternal height and BMI were positively associated with both LAZ and BAZ at 10-15 months of age (p for trend <0.001). Child's size at birth was positively related with LAZ (p<0.001 for both birth weight and length). BAZ was 0.34 (95% CI: 0.24, 0.44) higher, but 0.11 lower (95% CI: -0.21, -0.02), for each increase in 1 Z score of birth weight and length, respectively. Children with at least one reported malaria episode within the first year of life were 0.58 (95% CI: -1.05, -0.11) Z score shorter. Socioeconomic and intergenerational factors were consistently associated with LAZ and BAZ at 10-15 months of age. The occurrence of malaria was detrimental to linear growth. In a malaria endemic region, reduction of inequalities and disease burden over the first 1,000 days of life is essential for taking advantage of a critical window of opportunity that can redirect child growth trajectories toward better health and nutrition conditions in the long term.

Is malaria illness among young children a cause or a consequence of low socioeconomic status? evidence from the united Republic of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is commonly considered a disease of the poor, but there is very little evidence of a possible two-way causality in the association between malaria and poverty. Until now, limitations to examine that dual relationship were the availability of representative data on confirmed malaria cases, the use of a good proxy for poverty, and accounting for endogeneity in regression models. METHODS: A simultaneous equation model was estimated with nationally representative data for Tanzania that included malaria parasite testing with RDTs for young children (six-59 months), and accounted for environmental variables assembled with the aid of GIS. A wealth index based on assets, access to utilities/infrastructure, and housing characteristics was used as a proxy for socioeconomic status. Model estimation was done with instrumental variables regression. RESULTS: Results show that households with a child who tested positive for malaria at the time of the survey had a wealth index that was, on average, 1.9 units lower (p-value < 0.001), and that an increase in the wealth index did not reveal significant effects on malaria. CONCLUSION: If malaria is indeed a cause of poverty, as the findings of this study suggest, then malaria control activities, and particularly the current efforts to eliminate/eradicate malaria, are much more than just a public health policy, but also a poverty alleviation strategy. However, if poverty has no causal effect on malaria, then poverty alleviation policies should not be advertised as having the potential additional effect of reducing the prevalence of malaria.

Informal urban settlements and cholera risk in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: As a result of poor economic opportunities and an increasing shortage of affordable housing, much of the spatial growth in many of the world's fastest-growing cities is a result of the expansion of informal settlements where residents live without security of tenure and with limited access to basic infrastructure. Although inadequate water and sanitation facilities, crowding and other poor living conditions can have a significant impact on the spread of infectious diseases, analyses relating these diseases to ongoing global urbanization, especially at the neighborhood and household level in informal settlements, have been infrequent. To begin to address this deficiency, we analyzed urban environmental data and the burden of cholera in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Cholera incidence was examined in relation to the percentage of a ward's residents who were informal, the percentage of a ward's informal residents without an improved water source, the percentage of a ward's informal residents without improved sanitation, distance to the nearest cholera treatment facility, population density, median asset index score in informal areas, and presence or absence of major roads. We found that cholera incidence was most closely associated with informal housing, population density, and the income level of informal residents. Using data available in this study, our model would suggest nearly a one percent increase in cholera incidence for every percentage point increase in informal residents, approximately a two percent increase in cholera incidence for every increase in population density of 1000 people per km(2) in Dar es Salaam in 2006, and close to a fifty percent decrease in cholera incidence in wards where informal residents had minimally improved income levels, as measured by ownership of a radio or CD player on average, in comparison to wards where informal residents did not own any items about which they were asked. In this study, the range of access to improved sanitation and improved water sources was quite narrow at the ward level, limiting our ability to discern relationships between these variables and cholera incidence. Analysis at the individual household level for these variables would be of interest. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that ongoing global urbanization coupled with urban poverty will be associated with increased risks for certain infectious diseases, such as cholera, underscoring the need for improved infrastructure and planning as the world's urban population continues to expand.

Microbial larvicide application by a large-scale, community-based program reduces malaria infection prevalence in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control in Africa is most tractable in urban settlements yet most research has focused on rural settings. Elimination of malaria transmission from urban areas may require larval control strategies that complement adult mosquito control using insecticide-treated nets or houses, particularly where vectors feed outdoors. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Microbial larvicide (Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti)) was applied weekly through programmatic, non-randomized community-based, but vertically managed, delivery systems in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Continuous, randomized cluster sampling of malaria infection prevalence and non-random programmatic surveillance of entomological inoculation rate (EIR) respectively constituted the primary and secondary outcomes surveyed within a population of approximately 612,000 residents in 15 fully urban wards covering 55 km(2). Bti application for one year in 3 of those wards (17 km(2) with 128,000 residents) reduced crude annual transmission estimates (Relative EIR [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.683 [0.491-0.952], P = 0.024) but program effectiveness peaked between July and September (Relative EIR [CI] = 0.354 [0.193 to 0.650], P = 0.001) when 45% (9/20) of directly observed transmission events occurred. Larviciding reduced malaria infection risk among children < or =5 years of age (OR [CI] = 0.284 [0.101 to 0.801], P = 0.017) and provided protection at least as good as personal use of an insecticide treated net (OR [CI] = 0.764 [0.614-0.951], P = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: In this context, larviciding reduced malaria prevalence and complemented existing protection provided by insecticide-treated nets. Larviciding may represent a useful option for integrated vector management in Africa, particularly in its rapidly growing urban centres.

Bridges to sustainable tropical health.

Ensuring sustainable health in the tropics will require bridge building between communities that currently have a limited track record of interaction. It will also require new organizational innovation if much of the negative health consequences of large-scale economic development projects are to be equitably mitigated, if not prevented. We focus attention on three specific contexts: (i) forging linkages between the engineering and health communities to implement clean water and sanitation on a broad scale to prevent reworming, after the current deworming-only programs, of people by diverse intestinal parasites; (ii) building integrated human and animal disease surveillance infrastructure and technical capacity in tropical countries on the reporting and scientific evidence requirements of the sanitary and phytosanitary agreement under the World Trade Organization; and (iii) developing an independent and equitable organizational structure for health impact assessments as well as monitoring and mitigation of health consequences of economic development projects. Effective global disease surveillance and timely early warning of new outbreaks will require a far closer integration of veterinary and human medicine than heretofore. Many of the necessary surveillance components exist within separate animal- and human-oriented organizations. The challenge is to build the necessary bridges between them.

Interdependence of domestic malaria prevention measures and mosquito-human interactions in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Successful malaria vector control depends on understanding behavioural interactions between mosquitoes and humans, which are highly setting-specific and may have characteristic features in urban environments. Here mosquito biting patterns in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania are examined and the protection against exposure to malaria transmission that is afforded to residents by using an insecticide-treated net (ITN) is estimated. METHODS: Mosquito biting activity over the course of the night was estimated by human landing catch in 216 houses and 1,064 residents were interviewed to determine usage of protection measures and the proportion of each hour of the night spent sleeping indoors, awake indoors, and outdoors. RESULTS: Hourly variations in biting activity by members of the Anopheles gambiae complex were consistent with classical reports but the proportion of these vectors caught outdoors in Dar es Salaam was almost double that of rural Tanzania. Overall, ITNs confer less protection against exophagic vectors in Dar es Salaam than in rural southern Tanzania (59% versus 70%). More alarmingly, a biting activity maximum that precedes 10 pm and much lower levels of ITN protection against exposure (38%) were observed for Anopheles arabiensis, a vector of modest importance locally, but which predominates transmission in large parts of Africa. CONCLUSION: In a situation of changing mosquito and human behaviour, ITNs may confer lower, but still useful, levels of personal protection which can be complemented by communal transmission suppression at high coverage. Mosquito-proofing houses appeared to be the intervention of choice amongst residents and further options for preventing outdoor transmission include larviciding and environmental management.

Spatial patterns of malaria in the Amazon: implications for surveillance and targeted interventions.

A measure of local spatial association, G(i)*(d), is applied to test for the presence of malaria clusters in a colonization area in the Brazilian Amazon. Clusters of high and low malaria rates at different moments in time are identified. They suggest unambiguous spatial patterns of transmission, most likely linked to the social and natural habitat. Results imply that a comprehensive identification of the determinants of malaria transmission requires a spatial framework of analysis, and that control strategies must be spatially targeted and guided by a surveillance system that constantly learns the specificities of local transmission and adapts interventions to them.

Malaria risk on the Amazon frontier.

Frontier malaria is a biological, ecological, and sociodemographic phenomenon operating over time at three spatial scales (micro/individual, community, and state and national). We explicate these linkages by integrating data from remote sensing surveys, ground-level surveys and ethnographic appraisal, focusing on the Machadinho settlement project in Rondônia, Brazil. Spatially explicit analyses reveal that the early stages of frontier settlement are dominated by environmental risks, consequential to ecosystem transformations that promote larval habitats of Anopheles darlingi. With the advance of forest clearance and the establishment of agriculture, ranching, and urban development, malaria transmission is substantially reduced, and risks of new infection are largely driven by human behavioral factors. Malaria mitigation strategies for frontier settlements require a combination of preventive and curative methods and close collaboration between the health and agricultural sectors. Of fundamental importance is matching the agricultural potential of specific plots to the economic and technical capacities of new migrants. Equally important is providing an effective agricultural extension service.

Effect of irrigation and large dams on the burden of malaria on a global and regional scale.

Human-made ecologic transformations have occurred at an unprecedented rate over the past 50 years. Prominent among them are water resource development projects. An estimated 40,000 large dams and 800,000 small dams have been built, and 272 million hectares of land are currently under irrigation worldwide. The establishment and operation of water projects has had a history of facilitating a change in the frequency and transmission dynamics of malaria, but analyses of these environmental risk factors are sparse. Here, we present a comprehensive review of studies that assessed the impact of irrigation and dam building on malaria prevalence or incidence, stratified by the World Health Organization's (WHO) sub-regions of the world, and link these studies with the latest statistics on disability adjusted life years, irrigated agriculture, and large dams. We also present estimates of the population at risk due to proximity to irrigation schemes and large dam reservoirs. In WHO sub-regions 1 and 2, which have 87.9% of the current global malaria burden, only 9.4 million people are estimated to live near large dams and irrigation schemes. In contrast, the remaining sub-regions concentrate an estimated 15.3 million people near large dams and up to 845 million near irrigation sites, while here only 12.1% of the global malaria burden is concentrated. Whether an individual water project triggers an increase in malaria transmission depends on the contextual determinants of malaria, including the epidemiologic setting, socioeconomic factors, vector management, and health seeking behavior. We conclude that in unstable malaria endemic areas, integrated malaria control measures, coupled with sound water management, are mandatory to mitigate the current burden of malaria in locations near irrigation or dam sites.