[The cost of diabetes in Latin America: evidence from Mexico]. / Costos de la diabetes en Amerrica Latina: evidencias del caso Mexicano.

UNLABELLED: The main objective was to identify economic burden from epidemiological changes and expected demand for health care services for diabetes in México. The cost evaluation method to estimate direct and indirect costs was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the epidemiological changes for 2009-2011, three probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. Comparing the economic impact in 2009 versus 2011 (p< 0.05), there is a 33% increase in financial requirements. The total amount for diabetes in 2010 (US dollars) will be $778,427,475. It includes $343,226,541 in direct costs and $435,200,934 in indirect costs. The total direct costs expected are: $40,787,547 for the Ministry of Health (SSA), serving to uninsured population; $113,664,454 for insured population (Mexican Institute for Social Security-IMSS-, and Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers-ISSSTE-); $178,477,754 to users; and $10,296,786 to Private Health Insurance (PHI). CONCLUSIONS: If the risk factors and the different health care models remain as they are currently in the institutions analyzed, the financial consequences would be of major impact for the pockets of the users, following in order of importance, social security institutions and finally Ministry of Health. Allocate more resources to promotion and prevention of diabetes will decrease the cost increase by decreasing the demand for treatment of complications.

Likelihood ratios of clinical, laboratory and image data of pancreatic cancer: Bayesian approach.

PURPOSE: The diagnosis of pancreatic cancer (PC) is most frequently established in advanced stages. The aim of this study is to estimate the likelihood ratios (LRs) of diagnostic data with regards to PC that could be used to approach an earlier diagnosis. METHODS: A case-control study of 300 patients - 150 histological diagnosed cases of PC and 150 age-matched controls hospitalized for study of jaundice, abdominal pain, weight loss and/or chronic pancreatitis - was conducted. Bayesian probabilities in the form of LRs were estimated for PC predictions. RESULTS: Probability of PC was associated with jaundice [odds ratio (OR) 2.89; confidence interval (CI) 1.71-4.85], glycemic disturbance (OR 5.64; CI 2.36-13.46), tobacco index >20 (OR 2.11; CI 1.08-4.09) and tumour marker CA 19-9 (OR 9.33; CI 1.36-63.95). Computed tomography showed the highest test performance with regards to PC when comparing with other diagnostic tests. LRs for variables relevant to PC were estimated, among the most relevant: jaundice LR + 1.92, CA 19-9 LR + 5.36 and computed tomography LR + 4.15. The prediction model with an endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography at a tertiary referral hospital determined a 67% probability of detecting PC. CONCLUSIONS: Through a Bayesian approach we can combine clinical, laboratory and imaging data to approximate to an earlier diagnosis of PC.

Evidences on weaknesses and strengths from health financing after decentralization: lessons from Latin American countries.

OBJECTIVE: The main objective was to identify trends and evidence on health financing after health care decentralization. STUDY DESIGN: Evaluative research with a before-after design integrating qualitative and quantitative analysis. Taking into account feasibility, political and technical criteria, three Latin American countries were selected as study populations: Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru. DATA SOURCES: The methodology had two main phases. In the first phase, the study referred to secondary sources of data and documents to obtain information about the following variables: type of decentralization implemented, source of finance, funds of financing, providers, final use of resources and mechanisms for resource allocation. In the second phase, the study referred to primary data collected in a survey of key personnel from the health sectors of each country. FINDINGS: The trends and evidence reported in all five financing indicators may identify major weaknesses and strengths in health financing. CONCLUSIONS: Weaknesses: a lack of human resources trained in health economics who can implement changes, a lack of financial resource independence between the local and central levels, the negative behavior of the main macro-economic variables, and the difficulty in developing new financing alternatives. Strengths: the sharing between the central level and local levels of responsibility for financing health services, the implementation of new organizational structures for the follow-up of financial changes at the local level, the development and implementation of new financial allocation mechanisms taking as a basis the efficiency and equity principles, new technique of a per-capita adjustment factor corrected at the local health needs, and the increase of financing contributions from households and local levels of government.

Una aproximación al estudio de costos de servicios de salud en México / An approach to the study of helth services costs in Mexico

Objetivo. Abordar el análisis de costos de servicios de salud en eventos trazadores para instituciones de los sectores público y privado en México. Material y métodos. A partir de las funciones de producción y los insumos requeridos para el manejo de casos estándar de cada enfermedad o evento, se procedió a hacer el ajuste en el manejo de los trazadores para cada institución, mediante la técnica de consenso y con la participación de expertos por institución. Identificados los insumos y cantidades para la producción de servicios especificos de salud, se determinaron los costos de manejo de caso. Como trazadores se seleccionaron: hipertensión, diabetes, diarreas, neumonías, apendicectomía, atención del parto, consulta típica y vacunas. Se incluyeron tres instituciones del sector público y cinco del sector privado. Resultados. Los resultados indican que al determinar y comparar el costo de manejo de caso para cada trazador existen diferencias significativas para fines de producción de servicios médicos entre ambos sectores y al interior de cada uno. Conclusiones. El análisis comparativo en el costo de manejo de caso para cada trazador, presenta diferencias que se explican por procesos cualitativos y cuantitativos que caracterizan a cada institución en la combinación de insumos para producir servicios y por los distintos costos de insumos para cada uno de los sectores analizados, resultando los costos más bajos en instituciones del sector público, particularmente en la Secretaría de Salud, y los costos más altos en el sector privado, particularmente en seguros médicos privados

Objective. To approach the cost analysis of the health services for eight tracer conditions, in three institutions of the public sector and in five of the private sector. Material and Methods. First, production functions and inputs required for standard case-management of each tracer condition were identified. Subsequently, tracer case-management was adjusted for each institution through expert consensus techniques. Once the type and amount of inputs necessary to produce tracer-specific health care services were identified, case-management costs were estimated. Tracer conditions were: hypertension, diabetes, diarrheas, pneumonia, appendicectomy, labor and delivery care, routine ambulatory medical care and vaccines. Results. Results indicate significant differences with regards to the production of medical services between both sectors and within each one. Conclusions. The comparative analysis in the cost per case-management for each tracer presents differences that could be explained due to the quantitative and qualitative processes that characterized each institution in the combination of inputs to produce services and for the different costs of the inputs for each of the sectors analyzed, resulting in lower costs in the public sector and higher costs in the private sector, particularly for private health insurance.