Dynamic prediction of mortality in COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit: A retrospective multi-center cohort study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to overwhelm intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide, and improved prediction of mortality among COVID-19 patients could assist decision making in the ICU setting. In this work, we report on the development and validation of a dynamic mortality model specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients and discuss its potential utility in the ICU. Methods: We collected electronic medical record (EMR) data from 3222 ICU admissions with a COVID-19 infection from 25 different ICUs in the Netherlands. We extracted daily observations of each patient and fitted both a linear (logistic regression) and non-linear (random forest) model to predict mortality within 24 h from the moment of prediction. Isotonic regression was used to re-calibrate the predictions of the fitted models. We evaluated the models in a leave-one-ICU-out (LOIO) cross-validation procedure. Results: The logistic regression and random forest model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 [0.85; 0.88] and 0.86 [0.84; 0.88], respectively. The recalibrated model predictions showed a calibration intercept of -0.04 [-0.12; 0.04] and slope of 0.90 [0.85; 0.95] for logistic regression model and a calibration intercept of -0.19 [-0.27; -0.10] and slope of 0.89 [0.84; 0.94] for the random forest model. Discussion: We presented a model for dynamic mortality prediction, specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients, which predicts near-term mortality rather than in-ICU mortality. The potential clinical utility of dynamic mortality models such as benchmarking, improving resource allocation and informing family members, as well as the development of models with more causal structure, should be topics for future research.

COVID-19 in critically ill patients in North Brabant, the Netherlands: Patient characteristics and outcomes.

PURPOSE: Since the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, countries are overwhelmed by critically ill Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. As ICU capacity becomes limited we characterized critically ill COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. METHODS: In this case series, COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU of the Jeroen Bosch Hospital were included from March 9 to April 7, 2020. COVID-19 was confirmed by a positive result by a RT-PCR of a specimen collected by nasopharyngeal swab. Clinical data were extracted from medical records. RESULTS: The mean age of the 50 consecutively included critically ill COVID-19 patients was 65 ± 10 years, the mean BMI was 29 ± 4.7 and 66% were men. Seventy-eight percent of patients had ≥1 comorbidity, 34% had hypertension. Ninety-six percent of patients required mechanical ventilation and 80% were ventilated in prone position. Venous thromboembolism was recognized in 36% of patients. Seventy-four percent of patients survived and were successfully discharged from the ICU, the remaining 26% died (median follow up 86 days). The length of invasive ventilation in survivors was 15 days (IQR 12-31). CONCLUSIONS: The survival rate of COVID-19 critically ill patients in our population is considerably better than previously reported. Thrombotic complications are commonly found and merit clinical attention. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NL2020.07.04.01.

Initially unrecognised group A streptococcal pelvic inflammatory disease in a postmenopausal woman.

Invasive group A streptococcal infection is a severe disease with high mortality. Invasive group A streptococcal infection may arise after pelvic inflammatory disease. Pelvic inflammatory disease in postmenopausal women is rare. Here, we report a unique case of a postmenopausal woman with fatal invasive group A streptococcal infection due to pelvic inflammatory disease and an extraordinary course of diagnosis.

The aetiology of community-acquired pneumonia and implications for patient management.

PURPOSE: Understanding which pathogens are associated with clinical manifestation of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is important to optimise treatment. We performed a study on the aetiology of CAP and assessed possible implications for patient management in the Netherlands. METHODS: Patients with CAP attending the emergency department of a general hospital were invited to participate in the study. We used an extensive combination of microbiological techniques to determine recent infection with respiratory pathogens. Furthermore, we collected data on clinical parameters and potential risk factors. RESULTS: From November 2007 through January 2010, 339 patients were included. Single bacterial infection was found in 39% of these patients, single viral infection in 12%, and mixed bacterial-viral infection in 11%. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most frequently identified pathogen (22%; n=74). Infection with atypical bacteria was detected in 69 (20%) of the patients. CONCLUSION: Initial empirical antibiotics should be effective against S. pneumoniae, the most common pathogen identified in CAP patients. The large proportion of patients with infection with atypical bacteria points to the need for improved diagnostic algorithms including atypical bacteria, especially since these atypical bacteria are not covered by the first-choice antibiotic treatment according to the recently revised Dutch guidelines on the management of CAP.

Bilothorax: a bitter complication of liver surgery.

Bilothorax is a rare condition, mostly associated with surgery involving the biliary system or trauma. In this article a case of bilothorax secondary to liver surgery is reported, which recovered by pleural and abdominal drainage. Bilothorax should be considered as a cause of respiratory detoriation in patients with recent biliary or hepatic surgery.

Proton pump inhibitor therapy predisposes to community-acquired Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: The pathophysiological mechanisms which contribute to an increased risk of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in patients using proton pump inhibitors are not well established. AIM: To examine differences in microbial etiology in patients with CAP between patients with and without proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy and its possible impact on disease severity. METHODS: All individuals consulting the emergency care unit were prospectively registered and underwent chest radiography. Sputum, urine, nose-throat swabs and blood samples were obtained for microbial evaluation. We evaluated the association between use of proton pump inhibitors, etiology of CAP and severity of illness with multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised 463 patients, 29% using proton pump inhibitors (PPIs). Pathogens regarded as oropharyngeal flora were more common in CAP patients using PPI therapy compared to those who did not (adjusted OR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.22-3.72). Patients using proton pump inhibitors more frequently had an infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae (28% vs. 14%) and less frequently with Coxiella burnetii (8% vs. 19%) compared to nonuser of PPI. Adjusted for baseline differences, the risk of PPI users being infected with S. pneumonia was 2.23 times (95% CI: 1.28-3.75) higher compared to patients without PPI's. No risk between PPI use and any other microbial pathogen was found. There was no difference in severity of CAP between patients with and without using PPI therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Proton pump inhibitor therapy was associated with an approximately 2-fold increased risk to develop community-acquired pneumonia possibly as a result of S. pneumoniae infection.

Recovery from near drowning and postanoxic status epilepticus with controlled hypothermia.

A diver was resuscitated after cardiac arrest due to near drowning and was hypothermic on hospital arrival. During rewarming, status epilepticus occurred, previously identified as a predictor of poor outcome. The seizures responded well to treatment with antiepileptic drugs and controlled hypothermia. After six weeks, the patient had completely recovered. This case supports the hypothesis that hypothermia offers neuroprotection, even in the presence of status epilepticus. We recommend that near-drowning victims who are comatose after resuscitation for cardiac arrest be treated with controlled mild hypothermia for 12 to 24 hours.

Procalcitonin kinetics in Legionella pneumophila pneumonia.

Little is known about procalcitonin (PCT) levels in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by Legionella pneumophila. The aim of the present study was to investigate this infection marker in patients admitted with L. pneumophila pneumonia in relation to conventional inflammatory parameters, severity of pneumonia upon admission and clinical outcome. Eighteen patients admitted with CAP caused by L. pneumophila serogroup 1 were retrospectively examined. PCT measurements were carried out during the first week of admission in addition to measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell (WBC) count and registration of severity of pneumonia upon admission (CURB-65 score). The mean PCT level upon admission in patients with L. pneumophila pneumonia was 13.5 ng/mL (range 0.3-55.7 ng/mL). Mean CRP level was 397 mg/L (range 167-595 mg/L) and mean WBC count 11.7 x 10(9)/L (range 4.5-20.4 x 10(9)/L). Initial high PCT levels were indicative of more severe disease as reflected by prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay and/or in-hospital death. Patients admitted to the ICU showed significantly higher PCT levels compared with the remaining patients [26.7 ng/mL (range 4.6-55.7 ng/mL) vs. 6.9 ng/mL (range 0.3-29.3 ng/mL); p 0.019]. There was a significant correlation between Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II scores upon ICU admission and initial PCT levels upon hospital admission (r = 0.86; p 0.027). Persistently increased PCT levels during treatment were indicative of unfavourable clinical outcome. Conventional inflammatory parameters (CRP and WBC) and the CURB-65 score lacked this discriminatory capacity in our study population. PCT may therefore be a valuable tool in the initial clinical assessment and follow-up of patients with L. pneumophila pneumonia.

Legionella pneumophila DNA in serum samples during Legionnaires' disease in relation to C-reactive protein levels.

Legionella pneumophila DNA can be detected in serum from patients with Legionnaires' disease (LD). We explored this observation studying the kinetics of L. pneumophila DNA in serum samples in relation to C-reactive protein (CRP). Eleven hospitalized patients with LD were studied. Diagnosis was made by Legionella urinary antigen test in 8 patients and seroconversion in 3 patients. A macrophage infectivity potentiator (MIP) real-time PCR was performed on 31 serum samples, including 20 follow-up serum samples. Serum samples obtained on the day of admission were MIP PCR-positive in 7 (64%) and MIP PCR-negative in 4 (36%) patients. Three (75%) of the 4 patients with a MIP PCR-negative serum sample on the day of admission became positive during follow-up. Overall, L. pneumophila DNA was detected in serum samples from 10 of the 11 patients (91%). CRP levels in the 7 patients with a positive MIP PCR serum sample on day of admission (499 +/- 144 mg/l; median +/- SD) were significantly higher than those in the 4 patients with a negative MIP PCR serum sample on the day of admission (244 +/- 97 mg/l). No difference in the severity of the disease on the day of admission was found between these patients. The presence of L. pneumophila DNA in serum is a common phenomenon in hospitalized patients with LD, although in some cases it is not yet present on the day of admission. L. pneumophila DNA in serum on the day of admission correlates with high CRP levels, but not with the severity of the disease.

Epiglottitis in the adult patient.

Epiglottitis is an acute disease, which was predominantly caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b in the pre-vaccination era. In the vaccination era, with waning vigilance, adults remain at risk for acute epiglottitis according to recent Dutch incidence rates. There is more diversity in the cause of epiglottitis in adults. We describe three patients who presented to the emergency ward of a regional teaching hospital with severe epiglottitis. All three patients had stridor at presentation indicating a compromised airway. Emergency intubation was attempted, but two patients required a tracheotomy and one patient died. Patients received fibreoptic nasal intubation, systemic dexamethasone and antibiotics. Stridor is an important acute sign of upper airway obstruction, which requires vigilance for epiglottitis, regardless of the patient's age. Fibreoptic nasal intubation should preferentially be attempted with the possibility of immediate surgical airway on hand. Timely diagnosis and treatment usually results in a complete recovery. In adults, severe acute epiglottitis and stridor can justify early intubation.

Sarcoidosis mimicking ischaemic ventricular arrhythmia and pulmonary embolism.

Sarcoidosis is a multisystem granulomatous disorder characterised pathologically by the presence of noncaseating granulomas in the organs involved. Cardiac involvement, although well known, is rare. We describe a 72-year-old patient who was admitted to the intensive care unit after coronary artery bypass grafting. She developed refractory right and left ventricular failure complicated by multiple organ failure and died three days later. Postmortem examination revealed extensive sarcoidosis. On hindsight, preoperative ventricular tachycardia and an abnormal perfusion-ventilation scintigraphy of the lungs were manifestations of an underlying sarcoidosis.