A prediction model for neonatal mortality in low- and middle-income countries: an analysis of data from population surveillance sites in India, Nepal and Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: In poor settings, where many births and neonatal deaths occur at home, prediction models of neonatal mortality in the general population can aid public-health policy-making. No such models are available in the international literature. We developed and validated a prediction model for neonatal mortality in the general population in India, Nepal and Bangladesh. METHODS: Using data (49 632 live births, 1742 neonatal deaths) from rural and urban surveillance sites in South Asia, we developed regression models to predict the risk of neonatal death with characteristics known at (i) the start of pregnancy, (ii) start of delivery and (iii) 5 minutes post partum. We assessed the models' discriminative ability by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), using cross-validation between sites. RESULTS: At the start of pregnancy, predictive ability was moderate {AUC 0.59 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.61]} and predictors of neonatal death were low maternal education and economic status, short birth interval, primigravida, and young and advanced maternal age. At the start of delivery, predictive ability was considerably better [AUC 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76)] and prematurity and multiple pregnancy were strong predictors of death. At 5 minutes post partum, predictive ability was good [AUC: 0.85 (95% CI 0.80-0.89)]; very strong predictors were multiple birth, prematurity and a poor condition of the infant at 5 minutes. CONCLUSIONS: We developed good performing prediction models for neonatal mortality. Neonatal deaths are highly concentrated in a small group of high-risk infants, even in poor settings in South Asia. Risk assessment, as supported by our models, can be used as a basis for improving community- and facility-based newborn care and prevention strategies in poor settings.

Socioeconomic inequalities in newborn care during facility and home deliveries: a cross sectional analysis of data from demographic surveillance sites in rural Bangladesh, India and Nepal.

BACKGROUND: In Bangladesh, India and Nepal, neonatal outcomes of poor infants are considerably worse than those of better-off infants. Understanding how these inequalities vary by country and place of delivery (home or facility) will allow targeting of interventions to those who need them most. We describe socio-economic inequalities in newborn care in rural areas of Bangladesh, Nepal and India for all deliveries and by place of delivery. METHODS: We used data from surveillance sites in Bangladesh, India and from Makwanpur and Dhanusha districts in Nepal, covering periods from 2001 to 2011. We used literacy (ability to read a short text) as indicator of socioeconomic status. We developed a composite score of nine newborn care practices (score range 0-9 indicating infants received no newborn care to all nine newborn care practices). We modeled the effect of literacy and place of delivery on the newborn care score and on individual practices. RESULTS: In all study sites (60,078 deliveries in total), use of facility delivery was higher among literate mothers. In all sites, inequalities in newborn care were observed: the difference in new born care between literate and illiterate ranged 0.35-0.80. The effect of literacy on the newborn care score reduced after adjusting for place of delivery (range score difference literate-illiterate: 0.21-0.43). CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic inequalities in facility care greatly contribute to inequalities in newborn care. Improving newborn care during home deliveries and improving access to facility care are a priority for addressing inequalities in newborn care and newborn mortality.

Safety and immunogenicity of a recombinant Plasmodium falciparum AMA1 malaria vaccine adjuvanted with Alhydrogel, Montanide ISA 720 or AS02.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum Apical Membrane Antigen 1 (PfAMA1) is a candidate vaccine antigen expressed by merozoites and sporozoites. It plays a key role in red blood cell and hepatocyte invasion that can be blocked by antibodies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We assessed the safety and immunogenicity of recombinant PfAMA1 in a dose-escalating, phase Ia trial. PfAMA1 FVO strain, produced in Pichia pastoris, was reconstituted at 10 microg and 50 microg doses with three different adjuvants, Alhydrogel, Montanide ISA720 and AS02 Adjuvant System. Six randomised groups of healthy male volunteers, 8-10 volunteers each, were scheduled to receive three immunisations at 4-week intervals. Safety and immunogenicity data were collected over one year. Transient pain was the predominant injection site reaction (80-100%). Induration occurred in the Montanide 50 microg group, resulting in a sterile abscess in two volunteers. Systemic adverse events occurred mainly in the AS02 groups lasting for 1-2 days. Erythema was observed in 22% of Montanide and 59% of AS02 group volunteers. After the second dose, six volunteers in the AS02 group and one in the Montanide group who reported grade 3 erythema (>50 mm) were withdrawn as they met the stopping criteria. All adverse events resolved. There were no vaccine-related serious adverse events. Humoral responses were highest in the AS02 groups. Antibodies showed activity in an in vitro growth inhibition assay up to 80%. Upon stimulation with the vaccine, peripheral mononuclear cells from all groups proliferated and secreted IFNgamma and IL-5 cytokines. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: All formulations showed distinct reactogenicity profiles. All formulations with PfAMA1 were immunogenic and induced functional antibodies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (Clinicaltrials.gov) NCT00730782.