Comparing critical source areas for the sediment and nutrients of calibrated and uncalibrated models in a plateau watershed in southwest China.

Controlling non-point source pollution is often difficult and costly. Therefore, focusing on areas that contribute the most, so-called critical source areas (CSAs), can have economic and ecological benefits. CSAs are often determined using a modelling approach, yet it has proved difficult to calibrate the models in regions with limited data availability. Since identifying CSAs is based on the relative contributions of sub-basins to the total load, it has been suggested that uncalibrated models could be used to identify CSAs to overcome data scarcity issues. Here, we use the SWAT model to study the extent to which an uncalibrated model can be applied to determine CSAs. We classify and rank sub-basins to identify CSAs for sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in the Fengyu River Watershed (China) with and without model calibration. The results show high similarity (81%-93%) between the identified sediment and TP CSA number and locations before and after calibration both on the yearly and seasonal scale. For TN alone, the results show moderate similarity on the yearly scale (73%). This may be because, in our study area, TN is determined more by groundwater flow after calibration than by surface water flow. We conclude that CSA identification with the uncalibrated model for TP is always good because its CSA number and locations changed least, and for sediment, it is generally satisfactory. The use of the uncalibrated model for TN is acceptable, as its CSA locations did not change after calibration; however, the TN CSA number changed by over 60% compared to the figures before calibration on both yearly and seasonal scales. Therefore, we advise using an uncalibrated model to identify CSAs for TN only if water yield composition changes are expected to be limited. This study shows that CSAs can be identified based on relative loading estimates with uncalibrated models in data-deficient regions.

Mowing Submerged Macrophytes in Shallow Lakes with Alternative Stable States: Battling the Good Guys?

Submerged macrophytes play an important role in maintaining good water quality in shallow lakes. Yet extensive stands easily interfere with various services provided by these lakes, and harvesting is increasingly applied as a management measure. Because shallow lakes may possess alternative stable states over a wide range of environmental conditions, designing a successful mowing strategy is challenging, given the important role of macrophytes in stabilizing the clear water state. In this study, the integrated ecosystem model PCLake is used to explore the consequences of mowing, in terms of reducing nuisance and ecosystem stability, for a wide range of external nutrient loadings, mowing intensities and timings. Elodea is used as a model species. Additionally, we use PCLake to estimate how much phosphorus is removed with the harvested biomass, and evaluate the long-term effect of harvesting. Our model indicates that mowing can temporarily reduce nuisance caused by submerged plants in the first weeks after cutting, particularly when external nutrient loading is fairly low. The risk of instigating a regime shift can be tempered by mowing halfway the growing season when the resilience of the system is highest, as our model showed. Up to half of the phosphorus entering the system can potentially be removed along with the harvested biomass. As a result, prolonged mowing can prevent an oligo-to mesotrophic lake from becoming eutrophic to a certain extent, as our model shows that the critical nutrient loading, where the lake shifts to the turbid phytoplankton-dominated state, can be slightly increased.

Fate of methane in aquatic systems dominated by free-floating plants.

Worldwide the area of free-floating plants is increasing, which can be expected to alter methane (CH4) emissions from aquatic systems in several ways. A large proportion of the CH4 produced may become oxidized below the plants due to the accumulation of CH4 as a result of a decrease in the diffusive water-atmosphere flux and the entrapment of part of the ebullitive CH4, in combination with suitable conditions for methane oxidizing (MOX) bacteria in the aerobic rhizosphere. We used a set of essays to test this hypothesis and to explore the effect of different densities for three widespread free-floating species: Azolla filiculoides, Salvinia natans, and Eichhornia crassipes. The gas exchange velocity, proportion of CH4 bubbles trapped by the plants, occurrence of radial oxygen loss from roots, and MOX rates on the roots were assessed. We subsequently used the outcome of these experiments to parameterize a simple model. With this model we estimated the proportion of the produced CH4 that is oxidized, for different plant species and different densities. We found that in a shallow (1 m) system up to 70% of the CH4 produced may become oxidized as a result of a strong decrease in gas exchange combined with high MOX activity of the rhizosphere microbiome. As floating plants also are likely to increase CH4 production by organic matter production, especially when their presence induces anaerobic conditions, the overall effect on CH4 emission will strongly depend on local conditions. This explains the contrasting effects of floating plants on CH4 emissions in literature as reviewed here. As the effect of floating plants on CH4 emissions, including the high MOX rates we show here, can be substantial, there is an urgent need to consider this impact when assessing greenhouse gas budgets.

High Primary Production Contrasts with Intense Carbon Emission in a Eutrophic Tropical Reservoir.

Recent studies from temperate lakes indicate that eutrophic systems tend to emit less carbon dioxide (CO2) and bury more organic carbon (OC) than oligotrophic ones, rendering them CO2 sinks in some cases. However, the scarcity of data from tropical systems is critical for a complete understanding of the interplay between eutrophication and aquatic carbon (C) fluxes in warm waters. We test the hypothesis that a warm eutrophic system is a source of both CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, and that atmospheric emissions are larger than the burial of OC in sediments. This hypothesis was based on the following assumptions: (i) OC mineralization rates are high in warm water systems, so that water column CO2 production overrides the high C uptake by primary producers, and (ii) increasing trophic status creates favorable conditions for CH4 production. We measured water-air and sediment-water CO2 fluxes, CH4 diffusion, ebullition and oxidation, net ecosystem production (NEP) and sediment OC burial during the dry season in a eutrophic reservoir in the semiarid northeastern Brazil. The reservoir was stratified during daytime and mixed during nighttime. In spite of the high rates of primary production (4858 ± 934 mg C m(-2) d(-1)), net heterotrophy was prevalent due to high ecosystem respiration (5209 ± 992 mg C m(-2) d(-1)). Consequently, the reservoir was a source of atmospheric CO2 (518 ± 182 mg C m(-2) d(-1)). In addition, the reservoir was a source of ebullitive (17 ± 10 mg C m(-2) d(-1)) and diffusive CH4 (11 ± 6 mg C m(-2) d(-1)). OC sedimentation was high (1162 mg C m(-2) d(-1)), but our results suggest that the majority of it is mineralized to CO2 (722 ± 182 mg C m(-2) d(-1)) rather than buried as OC (440 mg C m(-2) d(-1)). Although temporally resolved data would render our findings more conclusive, our results suggest that despite being a primary production and OC burial hotspot, the tropical eutrophic system studied here was a stronger CO2 and CH4 source than a C sink, mainly because of high rates of OC mineralization in the water column and sediments.

Competition for light and nutrients in layered communities of aquatic plants.

Dominance of free-floating plants poses a threat to biodiversity in many freshwater ecosystems. Here we propose a theoretical framework to understand this dominance, by modeling the competition for light and nutrients in a layered community of floating and submerged plants. The model shows that at high supply of light and nutrients, floating plants always dominate due to their primacy for light, even when submerged plants have lower minimal resource requirements. The model also shows that floating-plant dominance cannot be an alternative stable state in light-limited environments but only in nutrient-limited environments, depending on the plants' resource consumption traits. Compared to unlayered communities, the asymmetry in competition for light-coincident with symmetry in competition for nutrients-leads to fundamentally different results: competition outcomes can no longer be predicted from species traits such as minimal resource requirements ([Formula: see text] rule) and resource consumption. Also, the same two species can, depending on the environment, coexist or be alternative stable states. When applied to two common plant species in temperate regions, both the model and field data suggest that floating-plant dominance is unlikely to be an alternative stable state.

Spatially explicit fate modelling of nanomaterials in natural waters.

Site specific exposure assessments for engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) require spatially explicit fate models, which however are not yet available. Here we present an ENP fate model (NanoDUFLOW) that links ENP specific process descriptions to a spatially explicit hydrological model. The link enables the realistic modelling of feedbacks between local flow conditions and ENP fate processes, such as homo- and heteroaggregation, resuspension and sedimentation. Spatially explicit simulations using five size classes of ENPs and five size classes of natural solids showed how ENP sediment contamination 'hot spots' and ENP speciation can be predicted as a function of place and time. For the catchment modelled, neglect of spatial heterogeneity caused relatively small differences in ENP retention. However, simplification of the number of size classes to one average class, resulted in up to 3.3 times lower values of retention compared to scenarios that used detailed size distributions. Local concentrations in sediment were underestimated up to 20 fold upon simplification of spatial heterogeneity or particle size distribution. We conclude that spatial heterogeneity should not be neglected when assessing the risks of ENPs.

Cost-effective solutions for water quality improvement in the Dommel River supported by sewer-WWTP-river integrated modelling.

This project aims at finding cost-efficient sets of measures to meet the Water Framework Directive (WFD) derived goals for the Dommel River (The Netherlands). Within the project, both acute and long-term impacts of the urban wastewater system on the chemical and ecological quality of the river are studied with a monitoring campaign in the urban wastewater system (wastewater treatment plant and sewers) and in the receiving surface water system. An integrated model, which proved to be a powerful tool to analyse the interactions within the integrated urban wastewater system, was first used to evaluate measures in the urban wastewater system using the existing infrastructure and new real-time control strategies. As the latter resulted to be beneficial but not sufficient, this paper investigated the use of additional infrastructural measures to improve the system cost-effectively and have it meet the Directive's goals. Finally, an uncertainty analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of uncertainty in the main model assumptions and model parameters on the performance robustness of the selected set of measures. Apart from some extreme worst-case scenarios, the proposed set of measures turned out to be sufficiently robust. Due to the substantial savings obtained with the results of this project, the pay-back time of the whole monitoring and modelling work proved to be less than 5 months. This illustrates the power of mathematical modelling for decision support in the context of complex urban water systems.

On data requirements for calibration of integrated models for urban water systems.

Modeling of integrated urban water systems (IUWS) has seen a rapid development in recent years. Models and software are available that describe the process dynamics in sewers, wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), receiving water systems as well as at the interfaces between the submodels. Successful applications of integrated modeling are, however, relatively scarce. One of the reasons for this is the lack of high-quality monitoring data with the required spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy to calibrate and validate the integrated models, even though the state of the art of monitoring itself is no longer the limiting factor. This paper discusses the efforts to be able to meet the data requirements associated with integrated modeling and describes the methods applied to validate the monitoring data and to use submodels as software sensor to provide the necessary input for other submodels. The main conclusion of the paper is that state of the art monitoring is in principle sufficient to provide the data necessary to calibrate integrated models, but practical limitations resulting in incomplete data-sets hamper widespread application. In order to overcome these difficulties, redundancy of future monitoring networks should be increased and, at the same time, data handling (including data validation, mining and assimilation) should receive much more attention.

Warming can boost denitrification disproportionately due to altered oxygen dynamics.

BACKGROUND: Global warming and the alteration of the global nitrogen cycle are major anthropogenic threats to the environment. Denitrification, the biological conversion of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen, removes a substantial fraction of the nitrogen from aquatic ecosystems, and can therefore help to reduce eutrophication effects. However, potential responses of denitrification to warming are poorly understood. Although several studies have reported increased denitrification rates with rising temperature, the impact of temperature on denitrification seems to vary widely between systems. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We explored the effects of warming on denitrification rates using microcosm experiments, field measurements and a simple model approach. Our results suggest that a three degree temperature rise will double denitrification rates. By performing experiments at fixed oxygen concentrations as well as with oxygen concentrations varying freely with temperature, we demonstrate that this strong temperature dependence of denitrification can be explained by a systematic decrease of oxygen concentrations with rising temperature. Warming decreases oxygen concentrations due to reduced solubility, and more importantly, because respiration rates rise more steeply with temperature than photosynthesis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that denitrification rates in aquatic ecosystems are strongly temperature dependent, and that this is amplified by the temperature dependencies of photosynthesis and respiration. Our results illustrate the broader phenomenon that coupling of temperature dependent reactions may in some situations strongly alter overall effects of temperature on ecological processes.

Predicting microbial nitrogen pathways from basic principles.

Nitrogen compounds are transformed by a complicated network of competing geochemical processes or microbial pathways, each performed by a different ecological guild of microorganisms. Complete experimental unravelling of this network requires a prohibitive experimental effort. Here we present a simple model that predicts relative rates of hypothetical nitrogen pathways, based only on the stoichiometry and energy yield of the performed redox reaction, assuming competition for resources between alternative pathways. Simulating competing pathways in hypothetical freshwater and marine sediment situations, we surprisingly found that much of the variation observed in nature can simply be predicted from these basic principles. Investigating discrepancies between observations and predictions led to two important biochemical factors that may create barriers for the viability of pathways: enzymatic costs for long pathways and high ammonium activation energy. We hypothesize that some discrepancies can be explained by non-equilibrium dynamics. The model predicted a pathway that has not been discovered in nature yet: the dismutation of nitrite to the level of nitrate and dinitrogen gas.

Impacts of agricultural phosphorus use in catchments on shallow lake water quality: About buffers, time delays and equilibria.

Phosphorus (P) losses caused by intensive agriculture are known to have potentially large negative effects on the water quality of lakes. However, due to the buffering capacity of soils and lake ecosystems, such effects may appear long after intensive agriculture started. Here we present the study of a coupled shallow lake catchment model, which allows a glimpse of the magnitude of these buffer-related time delays. Results show that the buffering capacity of the lake water was negligible whereas buffering in the lake sediment postponed the final lake equilibrium for several decades. The surface soil layer in contact with runoff water was accountable for a delay of 5-50 years. The most important buffer, however, was the percolation soil layer that may cause a delay of 150-1700 years depending on agricultural P surplus levels. Although the buffers could postpone final lake equilibria for a considerable time, current and target agricultural surplus levels eventually led to very turbid conditions with total P concentrations of 2.0 and 0.6 mg L(-1) respectively. To secure permanent clear water states the current agricultural P surplus of 15 kg P ha(-1) yr(-1) should drop to 0.7 kg P ha(-1) yr(-1). We present several simple equations that can be used to estimate the sustainable P surplus levels, buffer related time delays and equilibrium P concentrations in other catchment-lake systems.