Associations between interpregnancy interval and preterm birth by previous preterm birth status in four high-income countries: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of interpregnancy interval (IPI) on preterm birth (PTB) according to whether the previous birth was preterm or term. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: USA (California), Australia, Finland, Norway (1980-2017). POPULATION: Women who gave birth to first and second (n = 3 213 855) singleton livebirths. METHODS: Odds ratios (ORs) for PTB according to IPIs were modelled using logistic regression with prognostic score stratification for potential confounders. Within-site ORs were pooled by random effects meta-analysis. OUTCOME MEASURE: PTB (gestational age <37 weeks). RESULTS: Absolute risk of PTB for each IPI was 3-6% after a previous term birth and 17-22% after previous PTB. ORs for PTB differed between previous term and preterm births in all countries (P-for-interaction ≤ 0.001). For women with a previous term birth, pooled ORs were increased for IPI <6 months (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.43-1.58); 6-11 months (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04-1.16); 24-59 months (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.13-1.18); and ≥ 60 months (OR 1.72, 95%CI 1.60-1.86), compared with 18-23 months. For previous PTB, ORs were increased for <6 months (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.18-1.42) and ≥60 months (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.17-1.42), but were less than ORs among women with a previous term birth (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Associations between IPI and PTB are modified by whether or not the previous pregnancy was preterm. ORs for short and long IPIs were higher among women with a previous term birth than a previous PTB, which for short IPI is consistent with the maternal depletion hypothesis. Given the high risk of recurrence and assuming a causal association between IPI and PTB, IPI remains a potentially modifiable risk factor for women with previous PTB. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Short versus long interpregnancy intervals associated with higher ORs for preterm birth (PTB) after a previous PTB.

Development and Evaluation of a Prediction Model for Ascertaining Rheumatic Heart Disease Status in Administrative Data.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has raised substantial concerns regarding the validity of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) codes (ICD-10 I05-I09) for rheumatic heart disease (RHD) due to likely misclassification of non-rheumatic valvular disease (non-rheumatic VHD) as RHD. There is currently no validated, quantitative approach for reliable case ascertainment of RHD in administrative hospital data. METHODS: A comprehensive dataset of validated Australian RHD cases was compiled and linked to inpatient hospital records with an RHD ICD code (2000-2018, n=7555). A prediction model was developed based on a generalized linear mixed model structure considering an extensive range of demographic and clinical variables. It was validated internally using randomly selected cross-validation samples and externally. Conditional optimal probability cutpoints were calculated, maximising discrimination separately for high-risk versus low-risk populations. RESULTS: The proposed model reduced the false-positive rate (FPR) from acute rheumatic fever (ARF) cases misclassified as RHD from 0.59 to 0.27; similarly for non-rheumatic VHD from 0.77 to 0.22. Overall, the model achieved strong discriminant capacity (AUC: 0.93) and maintained a similar robust performance during external validation (AUC: 0.88). It can also be used when only basic demographic and diagnosis data are available. CONCLUSION: This paper is the first to show that not only misclassification of non-rheumatic VHD but also of ARF as RHD yields substantial FPRs. Both sources of bias can be successfully addressed with the proposed model which provides an effective solution for reliable RHD case ascertainment from hospital data for epidemiological disease monitoring and policy evaluation.

Asbestos-related diseases.

Knowledge of asbestos-related diseases has been accumulating for over one hundred years as the industrial value of asbestos was recognised for the strength of its fibres and their resistance to destruction, resulting in increasing production and use until the multiple health effects have become apparent. Deposition in the lung parenchyma results in an inflammatory/progressively fibrotic response, with impaired gas exchange and reduced lung compliance ('asbestosis'), causing progressive dyspnoea and respiratory failure for which only palliation is indicated, although anti-fibrotic agents used for idiopathic usual interstitial pneumonitis remain to be evaluated. Benign pleural effusion, diffuse pleural fibrosis (occasionally with associated rolled atelectasis) and pleural plaques are the non-malignant pleural diseases that result from fibres reaching the pleura. But the main issues that led to the ban on asbestos in industry are those of malignancy: lung cancer, malignant mesothelioma (MM) of the pleura and MM of the peritoneum. Bronchogenic carcinoma risk from asbestos exposure is dose-dependent and multiplies the risk attributable to tobacco smoking. The principles of treatment are as for all cases of lung cancer. Low-dose computed tomography screening of exposed people can detect early-stage, non-small cell cancers, with improved survival. The amphibole varieties of asbestos are much more potent causes of MM than chrysotile, and the risk increases exponentially for 40-50 years following first exposure. As MM is non-resectable and poorly responsive to chemotherapy and radiotherapy, curative treatment is not possible and screening not justified.

Environmental and social determinants of acute rheumatic fever: a longitudinal cohort study.

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF), an auto-immune response to a group A Streptococcus infection and precursor to rheumatic heart disease (RHD), remains endemic in many socio-economically disadvantaged settings. A Global Resolution on ARF and RHD was recently adopted at the 71st World Health Assembly where governments committed to improving efforts to prevent and control ARF and RHD. To inform these efforts, the objectives of this study were to examine associations between childhood ARF in the UK between 1958 and 1969 and a range of environmental and social factors. Of 17 416 children from the nationally representative birth cohort of the National Child Development Study, ARF was reported in 23 children during early childhood (between birth and the 7-year follow-up) and in 29 additional children during middle childhood (between the 7- and 11-year follow-ups). Risk factors associated with ARF in both early and middle childhood were: a large family size; attendance at a private nursery or class; a history of nephritis, kidney or urinary tract infections; and a history of throat or ear infections. Risk factors for ARF in early childhood alone were families with fathers in a professional or semi-professional occupation and families who moved out of their local neighbourhood. Risk factors in late childhood alone included overcrowding and free school meals. These data suggest that prevention strategies in ARF endemic settings may be enhanced by targeting, for example, new members entering a community and children in environments of close contact, such as a nursery or shared bedrooms.

Effectiveness of a 3 + 0 pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule against invasive pneumococcal disease among a birth cohort of 1.4 million children in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Most studies use indirect cohort or case-control methods to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 7- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7 and PCV13) against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Neither method can measure the benefit vaccination programs afford the unvaccinated and many studies were unable to estimate dose-specific VE. We linked Australia's national immunisation register with health data from two states to calculate IPD incidence by vaccination status and VE for a 3 + 0 PCV schedule (doses at 2, 4, 6 months, no booster) among a cohort of 1.4 million births. METHODS: Births records for 2001-2012 were probabilistically linked to IPD notifications, hospitalisations, deaths, and vaccination history (available until December 2013). IPD rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated children <2 years old were compared using Cox proportional hazards models (adjusting for potential confounders), with VE = (1 - adjusted hazard ratio) × 100. Separate models were performed for all-cause, PCV7, PCV13 and PCV13-non-PCV7 serotype-specific IPD, and for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children. RESULTS: Following introduction of universal PCV7 in 2005, rates of PCV7 serotype and all-cause IPD in unvaccinated children declined 89.5% and 61.4%, respectively, to be similar to rates in vaccinated children. Among non-Aboriginal children, VEs for 3 doses were 94.2% (95%CI: 81.9-98.1) for PCV7 serotype-specific IPD, 85.6% (95%CI: 60.5-94.8) for PCV13-non-PCV7 serotype-specific IPD and 80.1% (95%CI: 59.4-90.3) for all-cause IPD. There were no statistically significant differences between the VEs for 3 doses and for 1 or 2 doses against PCV13 and PCV13-non-PCV7 serotype-specific IPD, or between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children. CONCLUSION: Our population-based cohort study demonstrates that >90% coverage in the first year of a universal 3 + 0 PCV program provided high population-level protection, predominantly attributable to strong herd effects. The size of the cohort enabled calculation of robust dose-specific VE estimates for important population sub-groups relevant to vaccination policies internationally.

Epidemiology of seasonal influenza infection in pregnant women and its impact on birth outcomes.

Seasonal influenza can cause significant morbidity in pregnant women. Much of the existing epidemiological evidence on influenza during pregnancy has focused on the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. To measure the epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza infection among pregnant women and the impact on infant health, a cohort of 86 779 pregnancies during the influenza season (2012-2014) was established using probabilistic linkage of notifiable infectious disease, hospital admission, and birth information. A total of 192 laboratory-confirmed influenza infections were identified (2·2 per 1000 pregnancies), 14·6% of which were admitted to hospital. There was no difference in the proportion of infections admitted to hospital by trimester or subtype of infection. Influenza B infections were more likely to occur in second trimester compared with influenza A/H3N2 and influenza A/H1N1 infections (41·3%, 23·6%, and 33·3%, respectively), and on average, infants born to women with influenza B during pregnancy had 4·0% (95% CI 0·3-7·6%) lower birth weight relative to optimal compared with infants born to uninfected women (P = 0·03). Results from this linked population-based study suggest that there are differences in maternal infection by virus type and subtype and support the provision of seasonal influenza vaccine to pregnant women.

Using record linkage to examine testing patterns for respiratory viruses among children born in Western Australia.

Changes in respiratory pathogen testing can affect disease burden estimates. Using linked data, we describe changes in respiratory virus testing among children born in Western Australia in 1996-2012. We extracted data on respiratory specimens from these children from birth to age 9 years. We estimated testing rates by age, year, Aboriginal status and geographical location. Predictors of testing among children hospitalised at least once before their 10th birthday were identified using logistic regression. We compared detection methods for respiratory viruses from nasal/nasopharyngeal (NP) specimens by age and year. Of 83 199 virology testing records in 2000-2012, 80% were nasal/NP specimens. Infants aged <1 month had the highest testing rates. Testing rates in all children increased over the study period with considerable yearly fluctuations. Among hospitalised children, premature children <32 weeks gestation had over three times the odds of being tested (95% CI 3·47-4·13) than those born at term. Testing using molecular methods increased from 5% to 87% over the study period. Proportion of positive samples increased from 36·3% to 44·4% (P < 0·01); this change was greatest in children aged 2-9 years. These findings will assist in interpreting results from future epidemiology studies assessing the pathogen-specific burden of disease.

Probabilistic linkage of national immunisation and state-based health records for a cohort of 1.9 million births to evaluate Australia's childhood immunisation program.

INTRODUCTION: Several countries have developed national immunisation registers, but only the Nordic countries have linked their registers to other health data in order to comprehensively evaluate the `real world' effectiveness of vaccines. Nordic countries can link datasets deterministically using the national person identifier, but most countries, including Australia, don't have such an identifier to enable this type of linkage. OBJECTIVES: To describe the process for assembling a linked study cohort that will enable the conduct of population-based studies related to immunisation and immunisation policy. METHODS: National death and immunisation databases along with state health data (notifications of vaccine preventable diseases, perinatal data, hospital admissions and emergency department presentations) up until December 2013 were probabilistically linked (using demographic details) for children born between 1996 and 2012 in two states: Western Australia and New South Wales (42% of Australia's population, combined). RESULTS: After exclusions there were 1.95 million children in the study cohort (live born children with both a birth and perinatal record which represents 97.5% of all live births in the state perinatal data collections - our source population) and 18.0 million person years of follow up (mean: 9.2 years per child). The characteristics of children in the cohort were generally similar to those only included in state perinatal databases and outcome measures were in keeping with expected figures from unlinked data sources. However, the lack of a dynamic national population register meant immigrants could not be included. CONCLUSIONS: We have been able to develop a similarly comprehensive system to the Nordic countries based on probabilistic linkage methods. Our experience should provide encouragement to other countries with national immunisation registers looking to establish similar systems.

Are low sun exposure and/or vitamin D risk factors for type 1 diabetes?

The global variation in type 1 diabetes (T1D) incidence rates is one of the most significant observed for any non-communicable disease. Geographical patterns in incidence suggest that low sun exposure may contribute to the wide disparity, with incidence rates generally increasing with distance from the Equator. T1D development is associated with hyperactivity of the adaptive immune system leading to autoimmune destruction of insulin-secreting pancreatic ß cells. Both exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and vitamin D, with their known immunosuppressive effects, have the potential to delay or inhibit the disease. Efforts to confirm the role of UVR by vitamin D dependent and independent pathways in the pathogenesis of T1D have been challenged by inconsistent results among studies. Human observational studies and animal and in vitro experiments indicate that at least some of the benefits of sun exposure come from improved vitamin D status. There is no evidence of benefit for T1D risk of vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy at current recommended levels (400 IU per day); but some evidence supports that higher sun exposure and/or vitamin D sufficiency in pregnancy, or supplementation in early life, decreases T1D risk. Further research is required to confirm an association between UVR exposure and T1D and clarify the mechanisms involved.

Psychiatric disorders during early adulthood in those with childhood onset type 1 diabetes: Rates and clinical risk factors from population-based follow-up.

AIM: To determine the incidence of and risk factors for psychiatric disorders in early adulthood in patients with childhood onset type 1 diabetes (T1D). METHODS: In this retrospective-cohort study, we identified a population-based childhood onset T1D cohort and an age and sex matched (5:1) non-diabetic comparison cohort. Data linkage was used to access inpatient hospitalization data, mental health support service data, and mortality data to follow-up both cohorts into early adulthood. RESULTS: The mean age of T1D diagnosis was 9.5 years (SD 4.1), with a mean age at end of follow-up of 26.4 years (SD 5.2, max 37.7). The diagnosis of any psychiatric disorder was observed for 187 of 1302 (14.3%) in the T1D cohort and 400 of 6422 (6.2%) in the comparison cohort [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.3; 95% CI 1.9, 2.7]. Anxiety, eating, mood, and personality and behaviour disorders were observed at higher rates within the T1D cohort. Comorbid psychiatric disorders were more frequent, at the cohort level, within the T1D cohort (2-3 disorders 3.76% vs 1.56%) and service utilization was higher (15+ contacts 6.8% vs 2.8%); though these differences did not remain when restricted to only those individuals diagnosed during follow-up. A history of poor glycaemic control was associated with an increased risk of anxiety, mood, and 'any' disorder (HR ranging from 1.35 to 1.42 for each 1% increase in mean paediatric HbA1c). CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the need for access to mental health support services as part of routine patient care for young adults with T1D, and for better predictive tools to facilitate targeting at-risk patients with early intervention programs.

Asbestos exposure and histological subtype of malignant mesothelioma.

BACKGROUND: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) has distinct histological subtypes (epithelioid, sarcomatoid and biphasic) with variable behaviour and prognoses. It is well recognised that survival time varies with the histological subtype of MM. It is not known, however, if asbestos exposure characteristics (type of asbestos, degree of exposure) are associated with different histological subtypes. AIM: To determine if the pathological MM subtype is associated with the type of asbestos or the attributes of asbestos exposure. METHODS: Cases of MM for the period 1962 until 2012, their main histological subtype and their most significant source of asbestos exposure were collected from the Western Australian Mesothelioma Registry. Exposure characteristics included, degree of asbestos exposure (including total days exposed, years since first exposure and, for crocidolite only, calculated cumulative exposure), source of exposure (occupational or environmental), form of asbestos handled (raw or processed) and type of asbestos (crocidolite only or mixed fibres). RESULTS: Patients with the biphasic subtype were more likely to have occupational exposure (OR 1.83, 1.12 to 2.85) and exposure to raw fibres (OR 1.58, 1.19 to 2.10). However, differences between subtypes in the proportions with these different exposure characteristics were small and unlikely to be biologically relevant. Other indicators of asbestos exposure were not associated with the histological subtype of mesothelioma. CONCLUSIONS: There was no strong evidence of a consistent role of asbestos exposure indicators in determining the histological subtype of MM.

Clinical and demographic risk factors associated with mortality during early adulthood in a population-based cohort of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: To calculate standardized mortality ratios and to assess the association between paediatric clinical factors and higher risk of mortality during early adulthood in a population-based cohort of subjects with Type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Subjects with Type 1 diabetes were identified through the Western Australian Children's Diabetes Database and clinical data for those who reached 18 years of age (n = 1309) were extracted. An age- and sex-matched (without diabetes) comparison cohort (n = 6451) was obtained from the birth registry. Mortality records were obtained from the death registry. Participants were followed up until 31 January 2012. Associations of clinical factors (from clinic visits before 18 years of age) with mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: The standardized mortality ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.7 (95% CI 0.7-3.3) for male and 10.1 (95% CI 5.2-17.7) for female subjects with Type 1 diabetes (median age at end of study 25.6 years). The adjusted hazard ratio was 1.5 (95% CI 1.1-2.1) for a 1% increase in mean paediatric HbA1c level, 3.8 (95% CI 0.9-15.3) for four episodes of severe hypoglycaemia relative to zero episodes, and 6.21 (95% CI 1.4-28.4) for a low-level socio-economic background relative to a high-level background. CONCLUSIONS: People with childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes have higher mortality rates in early adulthood. At particularly high risk are women, those with a history of poor HbA1c levels, those with recurrent severe hypoglycaemia during paediatric management, and those from a low socio-economic background. These groups may benefit from intensified management during transition from paediatric to adult care facilities.

Mesothelioma risk after 40†years since first exposure to asbestos: a pooled analysis.

BACKGROUND: The risk of malignant mesothelioma (MM) increases proportionally to the cumulative exposure, and to the 3rd or 4th power of time since first exposed, to asbestos. However, little is known about the risk of MM after more than 40 years since first exposure because most epidemiological studies do not have follow-up for sufficient periods of time. METHODS: The data from six cohort studies of exposed workers and two cohorts with residential exposure have been pooled. A nested case control design matched cases and controls on calendar period and age. Conditional logistic regression modelled the relationship between time since first exposure and risk of MM. RESULTS: The combined data consisted of 22,048 people with asbestos exposure (5769 women), 707 cases of pleural MM (165 in women) and 155 cases of peritoneal MM (32 in women). Median time since first exposure for pleural MM cases was 38.4 years (IQR 31.3-45.3). Median duration of exposure for pleural MM cases was 3.75 years (IQR 0.7-18.2). The rate and risk of pleural MM increased until 45 years following first exposure and then appeared to increase at a slower power of time since first exposure. The rate of increase in peritoneal MM over the 10-50 years since first exposure continued to increase. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to asbestos confers a long-term risk of developing pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma which increases following cessation of exposure. While the rate of increase appears to start to level out after 40-50 years no one survives long enough for the excess risk to disappear.

Cancer incidence and mortality among underground and surface goldminers in Western Australia.

BACKGROUND: In a cohort of goldminers, we estimated cancer mortality and incidence, for both surface and underground workers, and we examined the hypothesis that (underground) mining may be protective against prostate cancer. METHODS: Standardised mortality and incidence ratios (SMRs and SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to compare cancer mortality and incidence of former goldminers with that of the general male population. Internal comparisons on duration of underground work were examined using Cox regression. RESULTS: During 52 608 person-years of follow-up among 2294 goldminers, 1922 deaths were observed. For any cancer, mortality was increased for the total group of miners (SMR=1.27, 95% CI 1.16-1.39). In the Cox models, lung cancer mortality and incidence were particularly increased among underground miners, even after adjustment for smoking. The SMR for prostate cancer suggested a lower risk for underground miners, whereas incidence of prostate cancer was significantly increased (SIR=1.31, 95% CI 1.07-1.60) among underground miners. CONCLUSION: Overall cancer mortality and incidence was higher among Western Australian goldminers compared with the general male population, particularly for underground mining. This study does not support the hypothesis that miners have a decreased risk of prostate cancer.

No dose-dependent increase in fracture risk after long-term exposure to high doses of retinol or beta-carotene.

UNLABELLED: Uncertainty remains over whether or not high intakes of retinol or vitamin A consumed through food or supplements may increase fracture risk. This intervention study found no increase in fracture risk among 2,322 adults who took a controlled, high-dose retinol supplement (25,000 IU retinyl palmitate/day) for as long as 16 years. There was some evidence that beta-carotene supplementation decreased fracture risk in men. INTRODUCTION: There is conflicting epidemiological evidence regarding high intakes of dietary or supplemental retinol and an increased risk for bone fracture. We examined fracture risk in a study administering high doses of retinol and beta-carotene (BC) between 1990 and 2007. METHODS: The Vitamin A Program was designed to test the efficacy of retinol and BC supplements in preventing malignancies in persons previously exposed to blue asbestos. Participants were initially randomised to 7.5 mg retinol equivalents (RE)/day as retinyl palmitate, 30 mg/day BC or 0.75 mg/day BC from 1990 to 1996; after which, all participants received 7.5 mg RE/day. Fractures were identified by questionnaire and hospital admission data up until 2006. Risk of any fracture or osteoporotic fracture according to cumulative dose of retinol and BC supplementation was examined using conditional logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex, smoking, body mass index, medication use and previous fracture. RESULTS: Supplementation periods ranged from 1 to 16 years. Of the 2,322 (664 females and 1,658 males) participants, 187 experienced 237 fractures. No associations were observed between cumulative dose of retinol and risk for any fracture (OR per 10 g RE=0.83; 95% CI, 0.63-1.08) or osteoporotic fracture (OR per 10 g RE=0.95; 95% CI 0.64-1.40). Among men, cumulative dose of BC was associated with a slightly reduced risk of any fracture (OR per 10 g=0.89; 95% CI 0.81-0.98) and osteoporotic fracture (OR per 10 g=0.84; 95% CI 0.72-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: This study observed no increases in fracture risk after long-term supplementation with high doses of retinol and/or beta-carotene.

Malignant mesotheliomas in former miners and millers of crocidolite at Wittenoom (Western Australia) after more than 50 years follow-up.

BACKGROUND: To report the number of malignant pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas that have occurred in former Wittenoom crocidolite workers to the end of 2008, to compare this with earlier predictions, and to relate the mesothelioma rate to amount of exposure. METHODS: A group of 6489 men and 419 women who had worked for the company operating the former Wittenoom crocidolite mine and mill at some time between 1943 and 1966 have been followed up throughout Australia and Italy to the end of 2008. RESULTS: The cumulative number of mesotheliomas up to 2008 was 316 in men (268 pleural, 48 peritoneal) and 13 (all pleural) in women. There had been 302 deaths with mesothelioma in men and 13 in women, which was almost 10% of all known deaths. Mesothelioma rate, both pleural and peritoneal, increased with time since first exposure and appeared to reach a plateau after about 40 to 50 years. The mesothelioma rate increased with amount of exposure and the peritoneal mesotheliomas occurred preferentially in the highest exposure group, 37% compared with 15% overall. CONCLUSION: By the end of 2008, the number of mesothelioma deaths had reached 4.7% for all the male workers and 3.1% for the females. Over the past 8 years the numbers were higher than expected. It is predicted that about another 60 to 70 deaths with mesothelioma may occur in men by 2020.

Risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia following parental occupational exposure to extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields.

BACKGROUND: Earlier studies have reported moderate increases in the risk of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) among children whose mothers have been occupationally exposed to extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields. Other studies examining parental occupational exposure to ELF and ALL have reported mixed results. METHODS: In an Australian case-control study of ALL in children aged < 15 years, parents were asked about tasks they undertook in each job. Exposure variables were created for any occupational exposure before the birth of the child, in jobs 2 years before birth, in jobs 1 year before birth and up to 1 year after birth. RESULTS: In all, 379 case and 854 control mothers and 328 case and 748 control fathers completed an occupational history. Exposure to ELF in all time periods was similar in case and control mothers. There was no difference in exposure between case and control fathers. There was no association between maternal (odds ratio (OR)=0.96; 95% CI=0.74-1.25) or paternal (OR=0.78; 95% CI=0.56-1.09) exposure to ELF any time before the birth and risk of childhood ALL. CONCLUSION: We did not find an increased risk of ALL in offspring of parents with occupational exposure to ELF.

Predicting survival in malignant mesothelioma.

Malignant mesothelioma (MM) of the pleura or peritoneum is a universally fatal disease attracting an increasing range of medical interventions and escalating healthcare costs. Changes in survival and the factors affecting survival of all patients ever diagnosed with MM in Western Australia over the past five decades and confirmed by the Western Australian Mesothelioma Registry to December 2005 were examined. Sex, age, date and method of diagnosis, site of disease and histological type were recorded. Date of onset of symptoms and performance status were obtained from clinical notes for a sample of cases. Cox regression was used to examine the association of the clinical variables and the 10-yr periods of disease onset with survival after diagnosis. Survival was inversely related to age, being worse for males (hazard ratio (HR) 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.6), and those with peritoneal mesothelioma (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7). Patients with sarcomatoid histology had worse prognosis than patients with epithelioid and biphasic histological subtypes. Survival improved after the 1970s and has made incremental improvements since then. Median (interquartile range) survival by decade, from 1960 until 2005, was 64 (0-198), 177 (48-350), 221 (97-504), 238 (108-502) and 301 (134-611) days; ~4 weeks of this apparent improvement can be attributed to earlier diagnosis. With increasing resources and treatment costs for MM over the past 40 yrs, there have been modest improvements in survival but no complete remissions.

Vitamin D and atopy and asthma phenotypes in children: a longitudinal cohort study.

Vitamin D has been linked in some studies with atopy- and asthma-associated phenotypes in children with established disease, but its role in disease inception at the community level is less clear. The aim of the present study was to investigate associations between vitamin D status and biological signatures indicative of allergy and asthma development in children aged 6 and 14 years in Perth, WA, Australia (latitude 32° S). Serum vitamin D was assayed in 989 6-yr-olds and 1,380 14-yr-olds from an unselected community birth cohort; 689 subjects were assessed at both ages. Vitamin D levels were assessed as a risk modifier for respiratory and allergic outcomes at both ages, using previously ascertained phenotypic data. The predictive value of vitamin D levels at age 6 yrs for development of clinical phenotypes at age 14 yrs was also examined. Serum vitamin D levels in children of both ages were negatively associated with concurrent allergic phenotypes; sex stratification revealed that this association was restricted mainly to males. Furthermore, vitamin D levels at age 6 yrs were significant predictors of subsequent atopy/asthma-associated phenotypes at age 14 yrs. In an unselected community setting, children (particularly males) with inadequate vitamin D are at increased risk of developing atopy, and subsequently bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) and asthma. In a large unselected cohort, males with inadequate vitamin D at 6 and 14 yrs of age had increased atopy and BHR. Low vitamin D at age 6 yrs was a predictor of atopy and asthma at 14 yrs of age.