Future carbon sequestration potential in a widespread transcontinental boreal tree species: Standing genetic variation matters!

Climate change (CC) necessitates reforestation/afforestation programs to mitigate its impacts and maximize carbon sequestration. But comprehending how tree growth, a proxy for fitness and resilience, responds to CC is critical to maximize these programs' effectiveness. Variability in tree response to CC across populations can notably be influenced by the standing genetic variation encompassing both neutral and adaptive genetic diversity. Here, a framework is proposed to assess tree growth potential at the population scale while accounting for standing genetic variation. We applied this framework to black spruce (BS, Picea mariana [Mill] B.S.P.), with the objectives to (1) determine the key climate variables having impacted BS growth response from 1974 to 2019, (2) examine the relative roles of local adaptation and the phylogeographic structure in this response, and (3) project BS growth under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways while taking standing genetic variation into account. We modeled growth using a machine learning algorithm trained with dendroecological and genetic data obtained from over 2600 trees (62 populations divided in three genetic clusters) in four 48-year-old common gardens, and simulated growth until year 2100 at the common garden locations. Our study revealed that high summer and autumn temperatures negatively impacted BS growth. As a consequence of warming, this species is projected to experience a decline in growth by the end of the century, suggesting maladaptation to anticipated CC and a potential threat to its carbon sequestration capacity. This being said, we observed a clear difference in response to CC within and among genetic clusters, with the western cluster being more impacted than the central and eastern clusters. Our results show that intraspecific genetic variation, notably associated with the phylogeographic structure, must be considered when estimating the response of widespread species to CC.

Jack pine of all trades: Deciphering intraspecific variability of a key adaptive trait at the rear edge of a widespread fire-embracing North American conifer.

PREMISE: Understanding mechanisms fostering long-term persistence of marginal populations should provide key insights about species resilience facing climate change. Cone serotiny is a key adaptive trait in Pinus banksiana (jack pine), which shows phenotypic variation according to the fire regime. Compared to range-core populations within the fire-prone boreal forest, low and variable serotiny in rear-edge populations suggest local adaptation to uncommon and unpredictable wildfire regime. We assessed environmental/physiological factors that might modulate intraspecific variation in cone serotiny. METHODS: We experimentally subjected closed cones to incrementing temperatures, then tested seed germination to determine whether and how various ecological factors (cone age, branch height, tree size, tree age) are related to cone dehiscence and seed viability in jack pines from rear-edge and range-core populations in eastern Canada. RESULTS: Cones from rear-edge populations dehisce at a lower opening temperature, which increases with cone age. Cones from range-core stands open at a more constant, yet higher temperature. Cones from rear-edge stands take between 13 and 27 years to reach the level of serotiny achieved at the range core. At the rear edge, seed viability is steady (51%), whereas it decreases from 70% to 30% in 20 years at the range core. CONCLUSIONS: We inferred the mechanisms of a bet-hedging strategy in rear-edge populations, which ensures steady recruitment during fire-free intervals and successful postfire regeneration. This capacity to cope with infrequent and unpredictable fire regime should increase the resilience of jack pine populations as global changes alter fire dynamics of the boreal forest.

Contrasted patterns of local adaptation to climate change across the range of an evergreen oak, Quercus aquifolioides.

Long-lived tree species are genetically differentiated and locally adapted with respect to fitness-related traits, but the genetic basis of local adaptation remains largely unresolved. Recent advances in population genetics and landscape genomic analyses enable identification of putative adaptive loci and specific selective pressures acting on local adaptation. Here, we sampled 60 evergreen oak (Quercus aquifolioides) populations throughout the species' range and pool-sequenced 587 individuals at drought-stress candidate genes. We analyzed patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation for 381 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 65 candidate genes and eight microsatellites. Outlier loci were identified by genetic differentiation analysis and genome-environment associations. The response pattern of genetic variation to environmental gradient was assessed by linear isolation-by-distance/environment tests, redundancy analysis, and nonlinear methods. SNPs and microsatellites revealed two genetic lineages: Tibet and Hengduan Mountains-Western Sichuan Plateau (HDM-WSP), with reduced genetic diversity in Tibet lineage. More outlier loci were detected in HDM-WSP lineage than Tibet lineage. Among these, three SNPs in two genes responded to dry season precipitation in the HDM-WSP lineage but not in Tibet. By contrast, genetic variation in the Tibet lineage was related to geographic distance instead of the environment. Furthermore, risk of nonadaptedness (RONA) analyses suggested HDM-WSP lineage will have a better capacity to adapt in the predicted future climate compared with the Tibet lineage. We detected genetic imprints consistent with natural selection and molecular adaptation to drought on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) over a range of long-lived and widely distributed oak species in a changing environment. Our results suggest that different within-species adaptation processes occur in species occurring in heterogeneous environments.

Exploring genomic variation associated with drought stress in Picea mariana populations.

Predicted increases in drought and heat stress will likely induce shifts in species bioclimatic envelopes. Genetic variants adapted to water limitation may prove pivotal for species response under scenarios of increasing drought. In this study, we aimed to explore this hypothesis by investigating genetic variation in 16 populations of black spruce (Picea mariana) in relation to climate variables in Alaska. A total of 520 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped for 158 trees sampled from areas of contrasting climate regimes. We used multivariate and univariate genotype-by-environment approaches along with available gene annotations to investigate the relationship between climate and genetic variation among sampled populations. Nine SNPs were identified as having a significant association with climate, of which five were related to drought stress response. Outlier SNPs with respect to the overall environment were significantly overrepresented for several biological functions relevant for coping with variable hydric regimes, including osmotic stress response. This genomic imprint is consistent with local adaptation of black spruce to drought stress. These results suggest that natural selection acting on standing variation prompts local adaptation in forest stands facing water limitation. Improved understanding of possible adaptive responses could inform our projections about future forest dynamics and help prioritize populations that harbor valuable genetic diversity for conservation.

Ice-age persistence and genetic isolation of the disjunct distribution of larch in Alaska.

Larix laricina (eastern larch, tamarack) is a transcontinental North American conifer with a prominent disjunction in the Yukon isolating the Alaskan distribution from the rest of its range. We investigate whether in situ persistence during the last glacial maximum (LGM) or long-distance postglacial migration from south of the ice sheets resulted in the modern-day Alaskan distribution. We analyzed variation in three chloroplast DNA regions of 840 trees from a total of 69 populations (24 new sampling sites situated on both sides of the Yukon range disjunction pooled with 45 populations from a published source) and conducted ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) throughout Canada and United States to hindcast the potential range of L. laricina during the LGM. We uncovered the genetic signature of a long-term isolation of larch populations in Alaska, identifying three endemic chlorotypes and low levels of genetic diversity. Range-wide analysis across North America revealed the presence of a distinct Alaskan lineage. Postglacial gene flow across the Yukon divide was unidirectional, from Alaska toward previously glaciated Canadian regions, and with no evidence of immigration into Alaska. Hindcast SDM indicates one of the broadest areas of past climate suitability for L. laricina existed in central Alaska, suggesting possible in situ persistence of larch in Alaska during the LGM. Our results provide the first unambiguous evidence for the long-term isolation of L. laricina in Alaska that extends beyond the last glacial period and into the present interglacial period. The lack of gene flow into Alaska along with the overall probability of larch occurrence in Alaska being currently lower than during the LGM suggests that modern-day Alaskan larch populations are isolated climate relicts of broader glacial distributions, and so are particularly vulnerable to current warming trends.

The Evolution of Paleoecology.

While the interplay between migration and adaptation dictates species response to climate change, technological limitations have obfuscated explicit tests on past adaptive responses. However, a surge in technology-driven advances in paleoecological methods coincides with breakthroughs in processing ancient DNA, providing the first opportunity to assess adaptation to past climate shifts.

Invoking adaptation to decipher the genetic legacy of past climate change.

Persistence of natural populations during periods of climate change is likely to depend on migration (range shifts) or adaptation. These responses were traditionally considered discrete processes and conceptually divided into the realms of ecology and evolution. In a milestone paper, Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673 argued that the interplay of adaptation and migration was central to biotic responses to Quaternary climate, but since then there has been no synthesis of efforts made to set up this research program. Here we review some of the salient findings from molecular genetic studies assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate change. These studies have revolutionized our understanding of population processes associated with past species migration. However, knowledge remains limited about the role of natural selection for local adaptation of populations to Quaternary environmental fluctuations and associated range shifts, and for the footprints this might have left on extant populations. Next-generation sequencing technologies, high-resolution paleoclimate analyses, and advances in population genetic theory offer an unprecedented opportunity to test hypotheses about adaptation through time. Recent population genomics studies have greatly improved our understanding of the role of contemporary adaptation to local environments in shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity across modern-day landscapes. Advances in this burgeoning field provide important conceptual and methodological bases to decipher the historical role of natural selection and assess adaptation to past environmental variation. We suggest that a process called "temporal conditional neutrality" has taken place: some alleles favored in glacial environments become selectively neutral in modern-day conditions, whereas some alleles that had been neutral during glacial periods become under selection in modern environments. Building on this view, we present a new integrative framework for addressing the interplay of demographic and adaptive evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate dynamics, the research agenda initially envisioned by Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673.

Asymmetry matters: A genomic assessment of directional biases in gene flow between hybridizing spruces.

Assessing directional bias in interspecific gene flow might be important in determining the evolutionary trajectory of closely related species pairs. Using a set of 300 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) having variable propensity to cross species boundary, we evaluated the genomic extent and direction of interspecific gene flow in a progenitor-derivative spruce species pair (black spruce and red spruce). A higher rate of gene flow was found from black spruce toward red spruce purebreds than vice versa. This asymmetry could reflect the historical gene flow between the two taxa at the time of species inception and during postglacial colonization. A clear asymmetry in introgression was depicted by a greater gene flow between red spruce and hybrids than between black spruce and hybrids. While backcrossing toward red spruce was invariably high across the genome, the actual species boundary is between hybrids and black spruce where gene flow is impeded at those genomic regions impermeable to introgression. Associations between hybrid index and climatic variables (total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature) were tested, as these might indicate a role for exogenous selection in maintaining the species boundary. While an apparent association was found between the hybrid index and precipitation, it collapsed when considered in light of the directional bias in interspecific gene flow. Hence, considering asymmetrical patterns of introgression allowed us to falsify an apparent role for exogenous selection. Although this was not formerly tested here, we suggest that this pattern could result from asymmetrical endogenous selection, a contention that deserves further investigations.

Tracking the progression of speciation: variable patterns of introgression across the genome provide insights on the species delimitation between progenitor-derivative spruces (Picea mariana × P. rubens).

The genic species concept implies that while most of the genome can be exchanged somewhat freely between species through introgression, some genomic regions remain impermeable to interspecific gene flow. Hence, interspecific differences can be maintained despite ongoing gene exchange within contact zones. This study assessed the heterogeneous patterns of introgression at gene loci across the hybrid zone of an incipient progenitor-derivative species pair, Picea mariana (black spruce) and Picea rubens (red spruce). The spruce taxa likely diverged in geographic isolation during the Pleistocene and came into secondary contact during late Holocene. A total of 300 SNPs distributed across the 12 linkage groups (LG) of black spruce were genotyped for 385 individual trees from 33 populations distributed across the allopatric zone of each species and within the zone of sympatry. An integrative framework combining three population genomic approaches was used to scan the genomes, revealing heterogeneous patterns of introgression. A total of 23 SNPs scattered over 10 LG were considered impermeable to introgression and putatively under diverging selection. These loci revealed the existence of impermeable genomic regions forming the species boundary and are thus indicative of ongoing speciation between these two genetic lineages. Another 238 SNPs reflected selectively neutral diffusion across the porous species barrier. Finally, 39 highly permeable SNPs suggested ancestral polymorphism along with balancing selection. The heterogeneous patterns of introgression across the genome indicated that the speciation process between black spruce and red spruce is young and incomplete, albeit some interspecific differences are maintained, allowing ongoing species divergence even in sympatry. The approach developed in this study can be used to track the progression of ongoing speciation processes.

Integrating phylogeography and paleoecology to investigate the origin and dynamics of hybrid zones: insights from two widespread North American firs.

Secondary contact between closely related taxa routinely occurs during postglacial migrations. After initial contact, the location of hybrid zones may shift geographically or remain spatially stable over time in response to various selective pressures or neutral processes. Studying the extent and direction of introgression using markers having contrasted levels of gene flow can help unravel the historical dynamics of hybrid zones. Thanks to their contrasted maternal and paternal inheritance, resulting in different levels of gene flow for mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA (mtDNA and cpDNA), the Pinaceae stand out as a relevant biological model for this purpose. The objective of the study was to assess whether the hybrid zone between Abies balsamea and Abies lasiocarpa (two largely distributed Pinaceae) has moved or remained stable over time by analysing the distribution of cytoplasmic DNA variation as well as published palaeobotanical data. Interspecific gene flow was higher for cpDNA than mtDNA markers; hence, the geographic distribution of mitotypes was more congruent with species distributions than chlorotypes. This genetic signature was contrary to expectations under a moving hybrid zone scenario, as well as empirical observations in other conifers. Genetic evidence for this rare instance of stable hybrid zone was corroborated by the colonization chronology derived from published fossil data, indicating that the two fir species initially came into contact in the area corresponding to the current sympatric zone 11 kyr ago. While an explanatory analysis suggested the putative influence of various environmental factors on the relative abundance of cytoplasmic genome combinations, further research appears necessary to assess the role of both demographic history and selective factors in driving the dynamics of hybrid zones.

Cryptic no more: soil macrofossils uncover Pleistocene forest microrefugia within a periglacial desert.

Despite their critical importance for understanding the local effects of global climate change on biodiversity, glacial microrefugia are not well studied because they are difficult to detect by using classical palaeoecological or population genetics approaches. We used soil macrofossil charcoal analysis to uncover the presence of cryptic glacial refugia for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and other tree species in the Landes de Gascogne (southwestern France). Using botanical identification and direct radiocarbon dating (140 (14) C-dates) of macrofossil charcoal extracted from mineral soils, we reconstructed the glacial and postglacial history of all extant beech stands in the region (n = 11). Soil charcoal macrofossils were found in all sites, allowing the identification of up to at least 14 distinct fire events per site. There was direct evidence of the presence of beech during the last glacial period at three sites. Beech was detected during Heinrich stadial-1, one of the coldest and driest intervals of the last glacial period in Western Europe. Together with previous results on the genetic structure of the species in the region, these findings suggest that beech persisted in situ in several microrefugia through full glacial and interglacial periods up to the present day.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography.

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Stronger spatial genetic structure in recolonized areas than in refugia in the European beech.

Extant rear-edge populations located in former glacial refugia remain understudied despite their high conservation value. These populations should have experienced strong genetic drift due to their small size and long isolation. Moreover, the prolonged action of isolation by distance in refugial areas should result in stronger regional spatial genetic structure (SGS) than in recolonized areas, but empirical tests of this prediction are scarce. To fill this gap, we first used a set of 16 microsatellite markers to investigate the genetic structure of European beech in France in 65 populations from three refugial areas and one control recolonized (nonrefugial) area. Then, using the same approach, we reanalysed published isozyme data from 375 populations distributed across the entire species range. We found stronger genetic differentiation among populations in refugia than in recolonized areas. However, contrary to expectations, regional SGS was lower within refugia than within recolonized areas. Published studies presenting similar analyses suggest that our results could have generality across different biogeographical settings and types of organisms. Strong and prolonged genetic drift in refugial areas could have erased the signature of range expansions that is still visible in recolonized areas. Our results therefore suggest that Pleistocene population isolation has played a key role in increasing the genetic complexity of extant rear-edge populations.

Species richness along a production gradient: a multivariate approach.

The specific shape of the relationship between plant diversity and productivity and the causal mechanism(s) behind the observed pattern(s) are still highly debated. Recent advances suggest that the relationship depends on several environmental variables and may change with the observational scale. In this study, a multivariate, multiscale approach was used to identify the variables that determine the relationship between species richness and annual production along a forest/old field edge in southern Québec (Canada). Various relationships between richness and production were found at different distances to the edge. In the forest, most relationships were positive and linear, while in the old field the relationship shifted from positive linear to non-significant with increasing distance from the edge. In the forest or in the old field, the shape of the relationship (all distances from the edge combined) was unimodal. Path analyses showed that species richness was determined mostly by production, which was influenced by different limiting resources, depending on the community (forest or old field). An increasing range in production created by pooling across community types can confound the resources and/or conditions determining the diversity-productivity relationship.