Comprehensive conservation assessments reveal high extinction risks across Atlantic Forest trees.

Biodiversity is declining globally, yet many biodiversity hotspots still lack comprehensive species conservation assessments. Using multiple International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria to evaluate extinction risks and millions of herbarium and forest inventory records, we present automated conservation assessments for all tree species of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot, including ~1100 heretofore unassessed species. About 65% of all species and 82% of endemic species are classified as threatened. We rediscovered five species classified as Extinct on the IUCN Red List and identified 13 endemics as possibly extinct. Uncertainties in species information had little influence on the assessments, but using fewer Red List criteria severely underestimated threat levels. We suggest that the conservation status of tropical forests worldwide is worse than previously reported.

Giants of the Amazon: How does environmental variation drive the diversity patterns of large trees?

For more than three decades, major efforts in sampling and analyzing tree diversity in South America have focused almost exclusively on trees with stems of at least 10 and 2.5 cm diameter, showing highest species diversity in the wetter western and northern Amazon forests. By contrast, little attention has been paid to patterns and drivers of diversity in the largest canopy and emergent trees, which is surprising given these have dominant ecological functions. Here, we use a machine learning approach to quantify the importance of environmental factors and apply it to generate spatial predictions of the species diversity of all trees (dbh ≥ 10 cm) and for very large trees (dbh ≥ 70 cm) using data from 243 forest plots (108,450 trees and 2832 species) distributed across different forest types and biogeographic regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The diversity of large trees and of all trees was significantly associated with three environmental factors, but in contrasting ways across regions and forest types. Environmental variables associated with disturbances, for example, the lightning flash rate and wind speed, as well as the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, tend to govern the diversity of large trees. Upland rainforests in the Guiana Shield and Roraima regions had a high diversity of large trees. By contrast, variables associated with resources tend to govern tree diversity in general. Places such as the province of Imeri and the northern portion of the province of Madeira stand out for their high diversity of species in general. Climatic and topographic stability and functional adaptation mechanisms promote ideal conditions for species diversity. Finally, we mapped general patterns of tree species diversity in the Brazilian Amazon, which differ substantially depending on size class.

Thermal comfort thresholds for Japanese quails based on performance and egg quality.

Knowledge of the effects of thermal stress on Japanese quails helps support decision-making regarding the management of climate control systems. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and egg quality of Japanese quails subjected to different air temperatures (tair) and to propose thresholds for the temperature-humidity index (THI), the Black globe humidity index (BGHI), and enthalpy (H). Two experiments (21 days each) were conducted in four climate-controlled wind tunnels. In the first experiment, tair was 20, 22, 24, and 26 °C, and in the second, tair was 20, 28, 30, and 32 °C. The relative humidity (RH) and air velocity were 60% and 0.3 ms-1, respectively. To define the comfort thresholds, the productive performance of the birds, water intake, and egg quality were evaluated. No differences were observed (p > 0.05) for the performance-related variables, except for feed intake, which decreased (p < 0.05) as tair increased, and water intake, which increased (p < 0.5) by 15.9% starting at 28 °C. For experiments 1 and 2, with tair at 20 °C (tair,obs = 20.8 and 21.3 °C, respectively), there was evidence of cold stress. The shell thickness, Haugh unit, and internal quality unit were negatively influenced (p < 0.05) by tair starting at 28 °C. Japanese quails were able, within certain limits, to adapt to continuous thermal stress. The Japanese quails thermal comfort intervals recommended for THI, BGHI, and H are 68.4 to 76.2, 69.1 to 77.2, and 50.5 to 67.2 kJ kgdry air-1, respectively.

Shear wave elastography of the brachioradialis spastic muscle and its correlations with biceps brachialis and clinical scales.

BACKGROUND: Shear wave elastography technique estimates biological tissue shear elastic modulus (µ[kPa]), which can be used as an objective, muscle-specific indicator of stiffness increase caused by spasticity. We measured both the brachioradialis and biceps brachialis µ in hemiparetic post-stroke patients (n = 11). The spastic arm was compared with the supposedly non-affected contralateral limb and correlated with Fugl-Meyer Assessment and Modified Ashworth Scales. METHODS: Shear elastic modulus was estimated using an Aixplorer V.9 ultrasound device with the elbow at full extension. Average shear elastic modulus t-test, effect sizes, correlation matrix, spider plots and factor analysis were used to check for differences between spastic and nonspastic sides and explore relationships among the variables. FINDINGS: Spastic brachioradialis µ (22.54 ± 11.59 kPa) and biceps brachialis (26.86 ± 12.07 kPa) were significantly greater than the non-spastic counterparts (13.13 ± 2.81 kPa, p = 0.031, ηp2 = 0.3846 for brachioradialis and 15.25 ± 5.00 kPa, p = 0.007, ηp2 = 0.5345 for biceps brachialis). Significant correlations were observed between the spastic brachioradialis and biceps µ and Modified Ashworth Scales, but no correlation with Fugl-Meyer Assessment. INTERPRETATION: Elastography can provide muscle-specific shear elastic modulus estimations of spastic brachioradialis and biceps brachialis, which are distinct from the nonspastic side. In some patients, there was no clear correspondence of the Fugl-Meyer Assessment functional scale with Modified Ashworth Scales and µ, suggesting that spasticity is not the only determinant of arm function. Additionally, shear wave elastography of brachioradialis and biceps brachialis muscles may guide the spasticity treatment, for instance, selecting the preferable candidate for botulinum toxin therapy.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor delta-PPARδ agonist (L-165041) enhances bovine embryo survival and post vitrification viability.

The effect of L-165041 (PPARδ-agonist) on decreasing apoptosis and intracellular lipid content was assessed in fresh and vitrified-warmed in vitro -produced bovine embryos. It was hypothesised that the addition of L-165041 to the culture medium enhances development and cryopreservation. Oocytes were allocated to one of two treatments: control-standard culture medium, or L-165041 added to the medium on day1 with no media change. Ultrastructure, cleavage, and blastocyst rates were evaluated in fresh, and in post-vitrification cultured embryos by optical and electronic microscopy. A subset of fresh embryos were fixed for TUNEL assay and for Sudan-Black-B histochemical staining. Vitrified-warmed embryos were assessed using MALDI-MS technique. Cleavage and blastocyst rates (control 49.4±5.2, L-165041 51.8±4.3) were not influenced by L-165041. The proportion of inner cell mass cells (ICM) was higher in fresh embryos, and the rate of total and ICM apoptosis was lower in L-165041. In warmed-embryos, total and ICM apoptosis was lower in L-165041. The overall hatching rate was higher in L-165041 (66.62±2.83% vs 53.19±2.90%). There was less lipid accumulation in fresh L-165041-embryos. In conclusion, the use of L-165041 is recommended to improve the viability of in vitro -derived bovine embryos.

Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil.

Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Here, we  (1) quantify potential changes in species' bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) of 135 native potential agroforestry species from the Brazilian flora, using two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and dispersal scenarios, where species have no ability to disperse and reach new areas (non-dispersal) and where species can migrate within the estimated BAH (full dispersal) for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We then (2) assess the preliminary conservation status of each species based on IUCN criteria. Current and future potential habitats for species were predicted using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm used to estimate species' probability distribution. Future climate is predicted to trigger a mean decline in BAH between 38.5-56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3-41.9% under the full dispersal scenario for 135 native potential agroforestry species. Additionally, we found that only 4.3% of the studied species could be threatened under the IUCN Red List criteria B1 and B2. However, when considering the predicted quantitative habitat loss due to climate change (A3c criterion) the percentages increased between 68.8-84.4% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 40.7-64.4% under the full dispersal scenario. To lessen such threats, we argue that encouraging the use of these species in rural and peri-urban agroecosystems are promising, complementary strategies for their long-term conservation.

The erosion of biodiversity and biomass in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot.

Tropical forests are being deforested worldwide, and the remaining fragments are suffering from biomass and biodiversity erosion. Quantifying this erosion is challenging because ground data on tropical biodiversity and biomass are often sparse. Here, we use an unprecedented dataset of 1819 field surveys covering the entire Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We show that 83-85% of the surveys presented losses in forest biomass and tree species richness, functional traits, and conservation value. On average, forest fragments have 25-32% less biomass, 23-31% fewer species, and 33, 36, and 42% fewer individuals of late-successional, large-seeded, and endemic species, respectively. Biodiversity and biomass erosion are lower inside strictly protected conservation units, particularly in large ones. We estimate that biomass erosion across the Atlantic Forest remnants is equivalent to the loss of 55-70 thousand km2 of forests or US$2.3-2.6 billion in carbon credits. These figures have direct implications on mechanisms of climate change mitigation.

Thermoneutral zone for laying hens based on environmental conditions, enthalpy and thermal comfort indexes.

Controlling environmental conditions inside laying hens facilities systems and their effects on physiology and performance is essential in defining management strategies to alleviate the adverse effects of thermal stress in laying hens. Thus, we estimated thermoneutral zones for laying hens exposed to different heat-challenging conditions based on environmental conditions, enthalpy, and thermal comfort indexes being evaluated out in four thermal environment-controlled wind tunnels equipped with heating and air moistening function, housed in an experimental room with an area of 31.92 m2. Clustering analysis and empirical models were used to estimate thermoneutral zones for laying hens based on environmental conditions, enthalpy and thermal comfort indexes, and compare them with data available in the literature through graphics. The thermoneutral zones characterizing homeostasis for laying hens based on respiration rate (RR) are as follows: from 25.9 to 29.9 °C for air dry-bulb temperature (tdb), from 67 to 75 for temperature-humidity index (THI), from 68 to 73 for black globe-humidity index (BGHI), from 45 to 56 kJ kg dry air-1 for enthalpy (H) and 441.7-465.6 W for radiant heat load (RHL). Comfort limits for physiological responses cloacal temperature (tclo), surface temperature (tsur) and RR found in this study are 39.4-39.9 °C, 26.5 to 29.9 °C and 30 to 67 mov. min-1, respectively. The number of repetitions and the use of mathematical modeling to be worked on, may directly impact the amplitude of each limit to be established for each variable of interest.

Ultrasonographic cervical evaluation: A tool to select ewes for non-surgical embryo recovery.

This study assessed the cervical ultrasonography mapping as a tool to select donor ewes for non-surgical embryo recovery (NSER). Lacaune ewes had their cervix evaluated by ultrasonography 12 hr after induced oestrus onset (Trial 1, n = 24) or 30 min before NSER (Trial 2, n = 17). Cervical rings were longitudinally evaluated and classified by their degree of misalignment on ultrasonography (DMUS) into: DMUS-1-cervix rectilinear, DMUS-2-intermediate and DMUS-3-highly asymmetrical. For predicting cervical transposing, only DMUS-1 and DMUS-2 were considered suitable. Similar ranking was attributed to degree of misalignment on the cervical map (DMCM 1-3), established immediately before NSER, which was performed at days 6 to 7 after oestrus. In Trial 1, cervical retraction for NSER was not possible only in three ewes classified as DMUS-3 (3/14, 21.4%). No difference (p > .05) was observed in the cervical transposing rates between ewes with different DMUS (ranged from 80% to 100%). In Trial 2, DMUS-1 and DMUS-2 reached 100% of transposing, and the only DMUS-3 ewe has not been transposed. In Trial 1, the prediction performance for successful cervical transposing showed low sensitivity (45%) and no specificity due to a high incidence of false negatives (52%). However, in Trial 2, sensitivity and specificity were both 100%. The DMCM and DMUS were uncorrelated, probably due to cervical stretching required to perform NSER. In conclusion, cervical ultrasound assessment immediately before NSER was more efficient to predict the cervical transposing than at induced oestrus, allowing the classification and selection of ewes eligible for NSER.

Bayesian factor analytic model: An approach in multiple environment trials.

One of the main challenges in plant breeding programs is the efficient quantification of the genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI). The presence of significant GEI may create difficulties for breeders in the selection and recommendation of superior genotypes for a wide environmental network. Among the diverse statistical procedures developed for this purpose, we highlight those based on mixed models and factor analysis that are called factor analytic (FA) models. However, some inferential issues are related to the factor analytic model, such as Heywood cases that make the model non-identifiable. Moreover, the representation of the loads and factors in the conventional biplot does not involve any measurement of uncertainty. In this work, we propose dealing with the FA model using the Bayesian framework with direct sampling of factor loadings via spectral decomposition; this guarantees identifiability in the estimation process and eliminates the need for the rotationality of factor loadings or imposition of any ad hoc constraints. We used simulated and real data to illustrate the method's application in multi-environment trials (MET) and to compare it with traditional FA mixed models on controlled unbalancing. In general, the Bayesian FA model was robust under different simulated unbalanced levels, presenting the superior predictive ability of missing data when compared to competing models, such as those based on FA mixed models. In addition, for some scenarios, the classical FA mixed model failed in estimating the full FA model, illustrating the parametric problems of convergence in these models. Our results suggest that Bayesian factorial models might be successfully used in plant breeding for MET analysis.

Can Resveratrol Treatment Control the Progression of Induced Periodontal Disease? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Preclinical Studies.

Resveratrol is an anti-inflammatory compound found in several foods. Periodontal disease (PD) is associated to other systemic diseases, and inflammation may be responsible for the association. Consequently, controlling inflammation not only may benefit oral health but also may assist with the management of other chronic inflammatory conditions. We aimed to investigate the effects of resveratrol administration on PD control in preclinical studies. A systematic search was performed for scientific articles using both electronic databases and a manual search using combinations of the following keywords: "resveratrol" OR "3,5,4'-trihydroxystilbene" AND "periodontal disease" OR "periodontitis" OR "gingivitis". Only in vivo original studies investigating resveratrol treatment on experimental animal models of PD were selected. A quality assessment of the studies was performed using the Animal Research Reporting In Vivo Experiment (ARRIVE) guidelines, and the risk of bias was assessed using the Syrcle tool. The search returned 570 articles, and 11 matched the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis showed that resveratrol treatment attenuated alveolar bone loss (τ2 = 0.0041; 95% CI: -0.14; -0.04). The ARRIVE criteria reported a good quality of studies in general (mean score 28.5 ± 2.5). However, five Syrcle domains indicated a high risk of bias or did not present information clearly. We concluded that, in preclinical studies, resveratrol treatment prevented PD progression.

Estimating interaction credit for trophic rewilding in tropical forests.

Trophic rewilding has been suggested as a restoration tool to restore ecological interactions and reverse defaunation and its cascading effects on ecosystem functioning. One of the ecological processes that has been jeopardized by defaunation is animal-mediated seed dispersal. Here, we propose an approach that combines joint species distribution models with occurrence data and species interaction records to quantify the potential to restore seed-dispersal interactions through rewilding and apply it to the Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. Using this approach, we identify areas that should benefit the most from trophic rewilding and candidate species that could contribute to cash the credit of seed-dispersal interactions in a given site. We found that sites within large fragments bearing a great diversity of trees may have about 20 times as many interactions to be cashed through rewilding as small fragments in regions where deforestation has been pervasive. We also ranked mammal and bird species according to their potential to restore seed-dispersal interactions if reintroduced while considering the biome as a whole and at finer scales. The suggested approach can aid future conservation efforts in rewilding projects in defaunated tropical rainforests.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Fuzzy system to predict physiological responses of Holstein cows in southeastern Brazil / Sistema difuso para predecir respuestas fisiológicas de vacas Holstein en el sureste de Brasil / Sistema fuzzy para predizer respostas fisiológicas de vacas Holstein na região sudeste do Brasil

Background:thermal environment exerts a direct influence on animal performance. Environmental factors, in different circumstances, may affect milk production and fertility of animals, compromising the profitability of the activity. Under heat stress conditions dairy cows reduce feed intake and, consequently, milk production. Sweating and panting are some of the mechanisms these animals use to relieve thermal stress. In addition, animals often suffer physiological and behavioral changes caused by heat stress.Objective: the goal of the present study was to develop and evaluate a model based on fuzzy set theory to predict rectal temperature (°C), and respiratory rate (breaths per minute) responses of Holstein cows exposed to different environmental thermal conditions. Methods: the proposed fuzzy model was based on data obtained experimentally (5,884 records) as well as from the literature (792 records) referring to the effect of environmental variables on both physiological responses. Input variables of each record were dry bulb air temperature and relative humidity. Output variables were rectal temperature and respiratory rate. Results: the adjusted model was evaluated for its ability to predict response variables as a function of input variables. The model was able to predict respiration rate with an average standard error of 7.73 and rectal temperature with an average standard error of 0.27. Conclusion: a fuzzy model was developed to predict physiological responses. The error (%) of model prediction for respiration rate and rectal temperature was +/- 12 and 0.5%, respectively.

Antecedentes: el ambiente termal ejerce una influencia directa en el desempeño animal. Factores ambientales, en diferentes circunstancias, pueden afectar la producción de leche y la fertilidad de los animales, comprometiendo la rentabilidad de la actividad. Bajo condiciones de estrés por calor, las vacas lecheras reducen su consumo de alimento y, consecuentemente su producción de leche. Sudar y jadear son algunos de los mecanismos que estos animales usan para aliviar el estrés térmico. Además de estas consecuencias, los animales a menudo sufren cambios fisiológicos y comportamentales causados por el estrés calórico, causando una reducción en la producción de leche. Objetivo: el objetivo del presente estudio fue desarrollar y evaluar un modelo basado en la teoría de los conjuntos fuzzy para predecir respuestas fisiológicas, temperatura rectal y frecuencia respiratoria, de vacas lecheras de raza holandesa blanco y negro expuestas a diferentes condiciones ambientales. Métodos: el modelo fuzzy propuesto fue basado en datos obtenidos experimentalmente (5.884 registros), también como de la literatura (792 registros), refiriéndose a la influencia de las variables ambientales sobre esas respuestas fisiológicas. Cada registro incluye valores de temperatura de bulbo seco del aire, humedad relativa (variables de entrada), temperatura rectal y frecuencia respiratoria (variables de salida). Resultados: el modelo ajustado fue evaluado para cada variable respuesta y predice estas en función de las variables de entrada. Este modelo fue capaz de predecir la frecuencia respiratoria con un error estándar medio de 7,73 y la temperatura rectal con un error estándar medio de 0,27. Conclusión: un modelo fuzzy fue exitosamente desarrollado para predecir respuestas fisiológicas. El modelo fue capaz de predecir frecuencia respiratoria y temperatura rectal con errores porcentuales de +/- 12 y 0,5%, respectivamente.

Antecedentes: o ambiente térmico exerce uma influencia direta no desempenho animal. Fatores ambientais, em diferentes circunstancias, podem afetar a produção de leite e a fertilidade dos animais, comprometendo assim a rentabilidade da atividade. Sobcondições de estresse por calor, as vacas leiteiras reduzem o seu consumo de alimento e, consequentemente, a sua produção de leite. Sudorese e respiração ofegante são alguns dos mecanismos que estes animais usam para aliviar o estresse térmico. Além destas consequências, os animais com frequência sofrem mudanças fisiológicas e comportamentais causados pelo estresse calórico, causando uma redução na produção de leite. Objetivo: o objetivo do presente estudo foi desenvolver e avaliar um modelo baseado na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy para predizer respostas fisiológicas, temperatura retal e frequência respiratória, de vacas leiteiras de raça holandesa branca e preta, expostas a diferentes condições térmicas ambientais. Métodos: o modelo fuzzy proposto foi baseado em dados obtidos experimentalmente (5,884 registros) bem como da literatura (792 registros), referindo-se à influência das variáveis ambientais sobre essas respostas fisiológicas. Cada registro inclui valores de temperatura de bulbo seco do ar, umidade relativa (variáveis de entrada), temperatura retal e frequência respiratória (variáveis de saída). Resultados: o modelo ajustado foi avaliado para cada variável resposta e prediz estas em função das variáveis de entrada. Este modelo foi capaz de predizer a frequência respiratória com um erro padrão médio de 7,73 e a temperatura retal com um erro padrão médio de 0,27. Conclusão: o modelo fuzzy foi desenvolvido com sucesso para predizer respostas fisiológicas. O modelo foi capaz de predizer frequência respiratória e temperatura retal com erros percentuais de +/- 12 y 0,5%, respectivamente.

Níveis da bacitracina de zinco como melhorador do desempenho de frangos de corte / Levels of zinc bacitracin used to improve the performance of broilers

A utilização de antimicrobianos melhoradores de desempenho na criação de frangos de corte é uma prática comum na indústria avícola e, no Brasil, seu uso deve ser feito de acordo com os limites determinados pelo Ministério da Agricultura Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA).Objetivou-se com o presente trabalho determinar o efeito da utilização da bacitracina de zinco, dentro dos níveis recomendados pelo Ministério da Agricultura Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA), em dietas para frangos de corte sobre o desempenho de aves e criadas de 1 a 42 dias de idade. Utilizou-se o delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com 5 tratamentos, distribuídos em 10 repetições de 25 pintos machos de corte da linhagem Cobb 500®, totalizando 1250 aves. Os tratamentos experimentais foram constituídos de cinco níveis de inclusão de bacitracina de zinco (0, 10, 25, 40 e 55ppm). As variáveis analisadas foram consumo de ração, ganho de peso, conversão alimentar e avaliação econômica das dietas. Para o período total de criação, avaliou-se também a viabilidade dos frangos de corte. A bacitracina de zinco foi eficiente como beneficiador do desempenho de frangos de corte criados no período de 1 a 21, 1 a 35 e 1 a 42 dias. Para o período de 1 a 21 dias, o uso de 55 e 29,3ppm de bacitracina de zinco resultou em menor consumo de ração e maior ganho de peso, respectivamente. No geral, a melhor conversão alimentar foi obtida quando se adicionou 55ppm de bacitracina de zinco na ração de frangos de corte.

The use of growth promoters in the broilers production is a common practice in the poultry industry and its use must be made accordance with limits in Brazil set by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).The main objective of this study was to verify the effect of the use of zinc bacitracin, within the levels recommended by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA), in broiler diets for the performance of birds from 1 to 42 days old. We used a randomized design with five treatments in 10 replications of 25 male chicks from Cobb cut 500®, totaling 1250 birds. The treatments consisted of five inclusion levels of zinc bacitracin (0, 10, 25, 40 and 55ppm). The variables studied were feed intake, weight gain, feed conversion and economic evaluation of feed. For the breeding period as a whole, this study also evaluated the viability of broilers. Zinc bacitracin was effective as growth promoter of broilers reared during 1 to 21, 1 to 35 and 1 to 42 days. For the period 1-21 days, using 55 and 29.3ppm of zinc bacitracin resulted in a lower feed intake and increased weight gain, respectively. In general, the best feed conversion was obtained when 55ppm of zinc bacitracin was added to the feed of broilers.

Biogenic amine profile in unripe Arabica coffee beans processed according to dry and wet methods.

Immature coffee fruit processing contributes to a high amount of defective beans, which determines a significant amount of low-quality coffee sold in the Brazilian internal market. Unripe bean processing was tested, taking the levels of bioactive amines as criteria for evaluating the extent of fermentation and establishing the differences between processing methods. The beans were processed by the dry method after being mechanically depulped immediately after harvest or after a 12 h resting period in a dry pile or immersed in water. Seven bioactive amines were quantified: putrescine, spermine, spermidine, serotonin, cadaverine, histamine, and tyramine, with global amounts ranging from 71.8 to 80.3 mg/kg. The levels of spermine and spermidine were lower in the unripe depulped coffee than in the natural coffee. The specific conditions of dry and wet processing also influenced cadaverine levels, and histamine was reduced in unripe depulped coffee. A resting period of 12 h does not induce significant alteration on the beans and can be improved if performed in water. These results confirm that peeling immature coffee can decrease fermentation processes while providing more uniform drying, thus reducing the number of defects and potentially increasing beverage quality.

[Decline in homicide rates in São Paulo, Brasil: a descriptive analysis]. / Queda dos homicídios em São Paulo, Brasil: uma análise descritiva.

OBJECTIVE: To describe homicide mortality in the municipality of São Paulo according to type of weapon, sex, race or skin color, age, and areas of socioeconomic inequalities, between 1996 and 2008. METHOD: For this ecological time-series study, data about deaths in the municipality of São Paulo were collected from the municipal program for improvement of mortality information, using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Homicide mortality rates (HMR) were calculated for the overall population and specifically for each sex, race or skin color, age range, type of weapon, and occurrence in social deprivation/affluence areas. HMR were adjusted for age using the direct method. The percentage age of variation in HMR was calculated for the study period. For areas of socioeconomic inequalities, the relative risk of death from homicide was calculated. RESULTS: HMR fell 73.7% between 2001 and 2008. A reduction in HMR was observed in all groups, especially males (-74.5%), young men between 15 and 24 years of age (-78.0%), and residents in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation (-79.3%). The reduction occurred mostly in firearm homicide rates (-74.1%). The relative risk of death from homicide in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation, as compared to areas with some degree of socioeconomic deprivation, was 2.77 in 1996, 3.9 in 2001, and 2.13 in 2008. In areas of high socioeconomic deprivation, the relative risk was 2.07 in 1996 and 1.96 in 2008. CONCLUSIONS: To understand the reduction in homicide rates in the municipality of São Paulo, it is important to take into consideration macrodeterminants that affect the entire municipality and all population subgroups, as well as micro/local determinants that have special impact on homicides committed with firearms and on subgroups such as the young, males, and residents of areas of high socioeconomic deprivation.