ABSTRACT
This analysis, using data from the Brazilian kidney transplant (KT) COVID-19 study, seeks to develop a prediction score to assist in COVID-19 risk stratification in KT recipients. In this study, 1379 patients (35 sites) were enrolled, and a machine learning approach was used to fit models in a derivation cohort. A reduced Elastic Net model was selected, and the accuracy to predict the 28-day fatality after the COVID-19 diagnosis, assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC), was confirmed in a validation cohort. The better calibration values were used to build the applicable ImAgeS score. The 28-day fatality rate was 17% (n = 235), which was associated with increasing age, hypertension and cardiovascular disease, higher body mass index, dyspnea, and use of mycophenolate acid or azathioprine. Higher kidney graft function, longer time of symptoms until COVID-19 diagnosis, presence of anosmia or coryza, and use of mTOR inhibitor were associated with reduced risk of death. The coefficients of the best model were used to build the predictive score, which achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.767 (95% CI 0.698-0.834) in the validation cohort. In conclusion, the easily applicable predictive model could assist health care practitioners in identifying non-hospitalized kidney transplant patients that may require more intensive monitoring. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04494776.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Kidney Transplantation , COVID-19 Testing , Humans , Internet , Kidney Transplantation/adverse effects , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Transplant RecipientsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Disorders of mineral metabolism occur in most patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The aim of this work was to correlate parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels with urinary magnesium excretion in patients with non-dialysis dependent CKD. METHODS: Cross-sectional study. Concentrations of creatinine, magnesium, calcium, phosphate, parathyroid hormone (PTH), 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) were determined in blood samples. The assessment of urinary magnesium levels was performed by means of total daily excretion and by the excretion fraction (FEMg). RESULTS: The study evaluated 163 patients with a mean age of 60.7 ± 11.7 years and 51.0% were male. In the highest quartile of PTH (>89.5pg/mL), the mean levels of FEMg and ALP were higher (p<0.05). In the unadjusted regression analysis, the following variables were related to serum PTH levels: FEMg (odds ratio (OR) = 1.12; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.02-1.23), calcium (OR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.22-0.90), ALP (OR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.03) and eGFR (OR = 0.92; 95% CI: 1.00-1.03). After an adjusted analysis, only one FEMg and ALP will remain correlated with PTH. CONCLUSION: In patients with non-dialysis dependent CKD, FEMg and ALP were some variables that remained associated with PTH.
