A theoretical analysis of the scale separation in a model to predict solid tumour growth.

Solid tumour growth depends on a host of factors which affect the cell life cycle and extracellular matrix vascularization that leads to a favourable environment. The whole solid tumour can either grow or wither in response to the action of the immune system and therapeutics. A personalised mathematical model of such behaviour must consider both the intra- and inter-cellular dynamics and the mechanics of the solid tumour and its microenvironment. However, such wide range of spatial and temporal scales can hardly be modelled in a single model, and require the so-called multiscale models, defined as orchestrations of single-scale component models, connected by relation models that transform the data for one scale to another. While multiscale models are becoming common, there is a well-established engineering approach to the definition of the scale separation, e.g., how the spatiotemporal continuum is split in the various component models. In most studies scale separation is defined as natural, linked to anatomical concepts such as organ, tissue, or cell; but these do not provide reliable definition of scales: for examples skeletal organs can be as large as 500 mm (femur), or as small as 3 mm (stapes). Here we apply a recently proposed scale-separation approach based on the actual experimental and computational limitations to a patient-specific model of the growth of neuroblastoma. The resulting multiscale model can be properly informed with the available experimental data and solved in a reasonable timeframe with the available computational resources.

Characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of uncertainties, mitigation strategies, and underreporting of cases in South Korea, Italy, and Brazil.

By April 7th, 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected one and a half million people worldwide, accounting for over 80 thousand of deaths in 209 countries and territories around the world. The new and fast dynamics of the pandemic are challenging the health systems of different countries. In the absence of vaccines or effective treatments, mitigation policies, such as social isolation and lock-down of cities, have been adopted, but the results vary among different countries. Some countries were able to control the disease at the moment, as is the case of South Korea. Others, like Italy, are now experiencing the peak of the pandemic. Finally, countries with emerging economies and social issues, like Brazil, are in the initial phase of the pandemic. In this work, we use mathematical models with time-dependent coefficients, techniques of inverse and forward uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis to characterize essential aspects of the COVID-19 in the three countries mentioned above. The model parameters estimated for South Korea revealed effective social distancing and isolation policies, border control, and a high number in the percentage of reported cases. In contrast, underreporting of cases was estimated to be very high in Brazil and Italy. In addition, the model estimated a poor isolation policy at the moment in Brazil, with a reduction of contact around 40%, whereas Italy and South Korea estimated numbers for contact reduction are at 75% and 90%, respectively. This characterization of the COVID-19, in these different countries under different scenarios and phases of the pandemic, supports the importance of mitigation policies, such as social distancing. In addition, it raises serious concerns for socially and economically fragile countries, where underreporting poses additional challenges to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic by significantly increasing the uncertainties regarding its dynamics.